MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 If .....heartaches were nickles Need that further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The pattern isnt living up to its potential. Really sucks. This is really just the start of the pattern though. Sometimes it takes time to get results from a better pattern. I'll be surprised if we don't get a good snowstorm at some point in mid to late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 This is really just the start of the pattern though. Sometimes it takes time to get results from a better pattern. I'll be surprised if we don't get a good snowstorm at some point in mid to late January. That's true. I gave up way too early last January and look what happened. I believe we also went through this also last January where we missed out on some storms in early to mid January before that big storm at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Navgem still has2 lows along coast. Jma still needs to run,but like others have said still many days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 00z gefs sure does some weird stuff for that storm, I'm way too tired to post our talk more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Same with geps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 00z gefs sure does some weird stuff for that storm, I'm way too tired to post our talk more. Same with geps Thanks for the info... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 This is probably not our storm then, it could very well be the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Going to say it now. My forecast for February may be in real big trouble. A very strong MJO wave is forecasted to take shape in the IO by the beginning of February. If forcing really does end up back there, my cold/snowy February idea is in very serious jeopardy. Not ready to say my idea was wrong yet but the turn of events is bad. Link: https://mobile.twitter.com/anthonywx/status/686311976696414208 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Going to say it now. My forecast for February may be in real big trouble. A very strong MJO wave is forecasted to take shape in the IO by the beginning of February. If forcing really does end up back there, my cold/snowy February idea is in very serious jeopardy. Not ready to say my idea was wrong yet but the turn of events is bad. Link: https://mobile.twitter.com/anthonywx/status/686311976696414208Dr Cohen confirmed, yesterday, an SSWE is beginning in 10 days on all the models. What will that mean for your forecast, Warmy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 what will be the effect of a strong MJO on the weather of our area? Im new to this just trying to understand.. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 FWIW I just don't buy there being as much cold air as the GFS has been showing Days 11-16 if it's 500mb configuration is right. It should be a heck of a lot warmer than that if that's gonna be the setup at 500 but it's probably wrong anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 You mean Cohen is hoping a SSW will happen. He didn't confirm anything. Incorrect. He confirmed the GFS is showing one beginning at d10. It IS actually being modeled on all models and is no longer speculation. They may be wrong, but is highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 what will be the effect of a strong MJO on the weather of our area? Im new to this just trying to understand.. Thanks. Usually, ridging develops in the East and often nationwide a few days after the MJO moves into Phase 2. Currently, it's in Phase 8, but numerous models including the ECMWF and GFS forecast that it will move into Phase 2 in around 5 days. The models sometimes have a tendency to be too quick in advancing the MJO, but the agreement concerning Phase 2 is of concern even if the timing is off by a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Through January 10, the month has had a +3.4° temperature departure. Below is a chart showing various outcomes based on how the remaining days of the month fare: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 This is probably not our storm then, it could very well be the next one. The GFS had a clue. Crazy times. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Apparently the Para has a different solution altogether. Is this true, or is it just the Twitterati at it again? And if it's true, does it matter? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The ECMWF Ensembles and the Para have a low transferring to the coast with rain to heavy snow for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The ECMWF Ensembles and the Para have a low transferring to the coast with rain to heavy snow for everyone. Thanks. Still, I'm wondering if this is just much ado about nothing. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 This could be the worst producing epic pattern of all time. Up to an inch from a clipper Tuesday night might just be the highlight of the epic pattern, the jury is still out on whether or not the January 17-18 system will produce for us. However, with a primary low in the Great Lakes, it is going to be darn near impossible unless a secondary can develop around OBX and intensify rapidly. Models are not showing this scenario at this juncture. Not sure who it was that claimed the Jan 18 system was well ots, but since the surface low (primary) is clearly well West of the area, Im not sure exactly how one can claim victory at this being ots....unless u were referring to the weak surface reflection along the stationary/warm front that is progged to be off the coast? Which is something different....apples and oranges. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 This could be the worst producing epic pattern of all time. Up to an inch from a clipper Tuesday night might just be the highlight of the epic pattern, the jury is still out on whether or not the January 17-18 system will produce for us. However, with a primary low in the Great Lakes, it is going to be darn near impossible unless a secondary can develop around OBX and intensify rapidly. Models are not showing this scenario at this juncture. Not sure who it was that claimed the Jan 18 system was well ots, but since the surface low (primary) is clearly well West of the area, Im not sure exactly how one can claim victory at this being ots....unless u were referring to the weak surface reflection along the stationary/warm front that is progged to be off the coast? Which is something different....apples and oranges. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Not every great pattern will produce on the first storm. It might be the second or third or fourth. Patience. Anyway, it's still way too early to know what's going to happen with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 At least it might get cold for a bit in the dead of winter...so there is that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 6z navgem brings secondary low directly over long island . Correction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Incorrect. He confirmed the GFS is showing one beginning at d10. It IS actually being modeled on all models and is no longer speculation. They may be wrong, but is highly unlikely. A 372-hour stratospheric forecast is very high risk. If I recall correctly, last winter saw 3 or 4 calls for SSWs from that range on the GFS. Last winter saw only a moderate warming event that fell short of a true SSW during which the zonal winds reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 When Don is getting concerned you all should take pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 When Don is getting concerned you all should take pause.Nothing in Don post shows concern. Though he certainly can speak for himself. All that aside, if the models come in line for Saturday's storm and we score of foot by Sunday these kinds of posts will seem rather comical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 When Don is getting concerned you all should take pause. ...was thinking the same thing..this epic pattern is going to be an epic fail..very disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 I didn't see any concern in dons post. He was just stating facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 To my untrained eye it looks like the EURO removed the negative AO. Am I correct? Perhaps i am reading the models wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The pattern isnt living up to its potential. Really sucks. On most of the models it is not living up to it's potential YET ! I think many of us get ahead of ourselves thinking it's much later in the month -- it's only January 11 !!! So far this year is playing out just like last year on January 11 - there wasn't much hope and we all know the rest of the story of what happened the rest of last winter. As for the GFS model - shouldn't consider it past 84 hours IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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