MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The GEFS mean has a low near Buffalo and a secondary over DE. Looks wet but warm. Same as ggem ensembles. Better track but temp issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 bump Nothing wrong with a good rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Big Daddy ---Woof -Pattern Perfect all B.S - imho is that a transfer or two separate shortwaves??? http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=5&fcolor=wbg Are you still a fan of a southern slider? Either way, good trends today, and if I can't get snow at least I'll enjoy it if the ski resorts do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 There appears to be several very deep GEFS individual members based off the spaghetti. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 RGEM for Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Man going through each hour on gefs, that low out west for weekend stormgoes up down up down. Things bouncing all over the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 RGEM for Tuesday Half inch for us maybe going by that, basically just a coating. Mount Holly likes the idea of an inch or less for us in Morris Passaic Sussex etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Pattern looks great even if this storm doesn't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Ecmwf loading,slowly on tropical . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 bump Yes that was a very good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The Euro is looking much improved over 00z through Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The Euro is looking much improved over 00z through Saturday morning. what site you use? Tropical is so slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Very close on the Euro but just comes together a little late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro with a 982 mb low right at the benchmark but its still rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 what site you use? Tropical is so slow Stormvista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro with a 982 mb low right at the benchmark but its still raingreat trends today. Let's keep it going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro with a 982 mb low right at the benchmark but its still rain That's because the CCB develops too late. Looks like it changes over to snow before shutting off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro with a 982 mb low right at the benchmark but its still rain Fail. That's to be expected this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The posters in this forum that live on the immediate coast have been awfully spoiled for the last roughly 15 years. For many of the last few major events, it was snow for pretty much everyone and the further East you lived, the better off you were, so much that the interior has gotten the shaft. That's not the norm. There is a reason why long term climo favors inland areas over the coastal plain. And this isn't a biased post. I consider where I live to be part of the coastal plain. On the edge of it, but part of the coast nevertheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 great trends today. Let's keep it going Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Pretty decent trends today, if that lead shorwave can stay a little further south and confluence up north be a little stronger we can certainly see NW areas get a paste bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro with a 982 mb low right at the benchmark but its still rain You would think a low pressure that intense would produce its own cold air although I need to see more improvements at 500mb. Very encouraging trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 -7SD AO -4SD NAO forecast at the time .Don wrote a great piece at the time that showed how those anomalies compared to other periods with the same set up . It has backed off , but at the time anomalous blocking had shown up on the ensembles for several days. It's still a good pattern and it's there In the means over the next 10 to 15 days. Everyone here knows there are no guarantees. When people see a 7SD anomaly forecast for ANYTHING, let alone the AO, they should treat it with incredible suspicion unless it has widespread and sustained confirmation on virtually all modeling. Don can probably clarify the math, but 7SD means the probability of such an outcome is approximately 1.3x10^-12, which means essentially that it is 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Looks like my inland and elevated call is going to work out, at least for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Surprised we are at +4 for Jan....seems like it had been cold outside of yesterday Well we basically jumped from an avg October to an avg December in about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro is pretty cold behind next weeks storm. Cold to cutter to cold would make many people pretty upset (we must therefore chnage it, I'll make some calls...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro is pretty cold behind next weeks storm. Cold to cutter to cold would make many people pretty upset (we must therefore chnage it, I'll make some calls...) Yea that's basically the worst possible outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 unless there's a slowing trend regarding the timing of when the confluence moves away we're screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 great trends today. Let's keep it going The primary low is too strong and gets too far north before transfering. Everything still looks like crap as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The primary low is too strong and gets too far north before transfering. Everything still looks like crap as of now.It looks less like crap though than last night (which was acid diarrhea) if confluence is stronger and the primary is further SE (plus an earlier and quick transfer obviously)it can certainly give our NW members some snow. As for coastal areas, we're kind of running out of time for significant enough changes to give us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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