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About wolfsheepsheadbay

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    Scotch Plains, NJ

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  1. THERE IS A MAJOR SSWE BEGINNING RIGHT NOW DUDE. LOOK AT THE GUIDANCE. FEBRUARY WILL FEATURE A LARGELY -AO AND THIS IS PARTIALLY WHY. Basically, you BLEW the ENSO call which was never east based and is now dying out east FIRST. Tropical forcing has setup around the dateline, yielding PAC ridging since late December and February will likely be BN, if not MUCH BN, as a result. We saw a HISTORIC BLIZZARD a couple of weeks after you opined about how we would see a record warm second half and little if any snow. YOU ARE A TROLL AND NOT GOOD AT THIS STUFF. POST LESS AND READ MORE.
  2. omfg. how in the world you are allowed to continue to post here when you are essentially slandering others is beyond me. you are a fool and a complete joke of a poster who has been wrong and blown every single call you have made this winter. it is a wonder you are even able to show your persona around here after how abysmal every single thing you have called for has turned out. You have zero credibility here.
  3. PB GFI has been the best forecaster in this sub forum this winter. He called the El Niño as being not east based. Win. He called the pattern flip at 500 in early January. Win. He called for the Blizzard way out, but questioned the NAMs output which is sensible. Win. During this time, you called for warm, warm and more warm. Until 12 hours before the blizzard when you suddenly jumped aboard with a big total. It's ridiculous that you would even question PBs skills after his exemplary performance this season and in light of the ineffectualness of yours.
  4. Yes. We have seen it all turn to ish very quickly in the past haven't we? Steady as she goes.
  5. I think you just need to root for an early transfer and not what the 0z GGEM showed. Philly/SNJ should do fine here, as should DC. This is about as classic a KU look as you can get, ya know? I'd choo-choo-choose this look any day of the week.
  6. This is a different case because Atlantic blocking with an established 50/50 seem high likely to be in place in just a couple of days AND the PAC vort responsible for the downstream storm is on shore Tuesday, with little else to sample and figure out. There are also multiple ways this works out, as we saw from last night's GFS. This is why all the models are on it and the ones which aren't are showing their usual progressive biases. Likelihood of this event is higher than any other day 6 threat IMO.
  7. Maybe I threw in the towel just a day or so too soon. LR looking better. HECS tracking and SSWE prospects looking markedly better in recent days. EPS Breakdown 38/51 (~75%) members with 2+" 29/51 (~57%) members with 6+" 21/51 (41%) members with a 10+"
  8. Announcement Backing down on SSWE chances officially as of today. I will no longer mention it again this Winter, and probably any other. I think Dr. Cohen is a bright guy, and I do think LR forecasting from significantly benefit from examination of the trop and strat. This science just needs years of additional work before it can applicable. I realize other people have been telling me this. I apologize for being overly aggressive with those folks such as Nittany or Don. Warmy can gtfo, though. It doesn't take any skill or guts to go warm/snowless all the time.
  9. Sure does. It looks fine, nothing great. Certainly better than Warmy is leading on.
  10. It's not even relevant. I removed the language in question above. I posted a series of facts concerning trends over the past couple of days above, troll claims there is no warming. Whatever.
  11. There is no tweet from HM, but I know he has soured on the possibility, not that this matters. Our own Isotherm has not soured on it, and he is way more of a strat expert than HM. The trends this week have been favorable. I am skeptical myself, but to make a statement that there "is zero signs of warming" is just ignorant and ridiculous. Then again, this is banter and you are the biggest troll in the NYC forums.
  12. No. 0z navgem was OTS 18z navgem was likely too progressive
  13. Around 28/51 (~55%) EPS members give NYC at least 2", give or take a couple which are close. Around 12/51 (~25%) EPS members give NYC at least 6", give or take a couple which are close. No one should complain about those numbers 8-10 days out. Still a big spread both with timing and track. GEPS looked very impressive IMO. GEFS...not so much, but much rather work with a progressive solution than a cutter.
  14. Overnight Euro splits the PV and both 30 and 50 mb from d8 through d10. VERY impressive, We have seen them split before, but not for such a duration, which supports the data presented showing this as being the warmest push yet. Warming signal at 10mb also continues to improve with good PV elongation and warming getting stronger as the run ended. Remember the GFS did have a 10mb split in the same time frame last night, so this is real and this is show time. IMO, if a split is going to occur, it will occur between January 25-30, which is in line with estimates put forth by, for example, our own Isotherm. Dare I say it, but pretty big improvement on the Strat front over the past couple of days of runs. Still skeptical.