JC-CT Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Well generally in the winter we need coastal for great snow seasons. Moisture starved clippers or overrunning can only go so far You wouldn't take 2013-14 again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Yeah but take like 2012-2013 winter...you got the vast majority of your snow in two big storms. Is that an active year? What if you had 5 storms but less snowfall? It seems impossible to measure. Three big storms. There was a nice one at the end of December that Boston weenies probably have pushed down into their subconscious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 I actually had less than half of my seasonal snowfall in the two biggies that winter (they totaled 51" out of the 109" total)...but they were definitely more than half for Kevin's area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Yeah but take like 2012-2013 winter...you got the vast majority of your snow in two big storms. Is that an active year? What if you had 5 storms but less snowfall? It seems impossible to measure how active a season is and its correlation to October nor'easters. Just a couple coastals can make a winter. But we haven't really had any this fall..unless you count that pseudo thing that was sort of associated with Joaqin. It might be nothing..but wouldn't we rather a stormy pattern start to develop in the mid-late autumn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Well last year the pattern wasn't very good...then we had the late January blizzard. I'm not sure October precip forebodes February precip. If anything, since its been so dry, you would think climo would balance things out, meaning a wet winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 As always down here, I'm more concerned about rain than it being dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Three big storms. There was a nice one at the end of December that Boston weenies probably have pushed down into their subconscious. I remember. Heavy hitting SWFE wasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Well last year the pattern wasn't very good...then we had the late January blizzard. I'm not sure October precip forebodes February precip. If anything, since its been so dry, you would think climo would balance things out, meaning a wet winter. Yeah, there is that line of thinking as well. Its all whatever helps us sleep better at night, haha. You could say its a bad sign not to see coastals in the fall...or you could say its a good sign as Mother Nature loves her averages, and regression to the mean would be a wet winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 I actually had less than half of my seasonal snowfall in the two biggies that winter (they totaled 51" out of the 109" total)...but they were definitely more than half for Kevin's area. Yeah, but you get what I mean. How do you quantify "active winter"? You could have a much more "active" season in terms of number of systems, but less snowfall if they are all 4-8" events. Or you could have a less active winter that brings more snow just because of a couple juggernauts. The whole storms in October equals storms in February thing seems fairly hard to prove (or disprove as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Just a couple coastals can make a winter. But we haven't really had any this fall..unless you count that pseudo thing that was sort of associated with Joaqin. It might be nothing..but wouldn't we rather a stormy pattern start to develop in the mid-late autumn? Maybe. It could be stormy in October and carry through with a stormy run through March. Or it could be stormy in October and then then the facet shuts off in December as Mother Nature evens it out with a dry pattern in the winter to make up for the wet fall season. I just don't think you can make a decision one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Maybe. It could be stormy in October and carry through with a stormy run through March. Or it could be stormy in October and then then the facet shuts off in December as Mother Nature evens it out with a dry pattern in the winter to make up for the wet fall season. I just don't think you can make a decision one way or another. Just look at this past June, July, August, and September here in Vermont. Record rains in June. For those cheering for summer convection and severe weather, June was looking pretty sweet. And then zippo over the next three months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 the end of the month/first week of November could feature an active weather pattern. Looks like more PNA ridging building out west with what looks like the STJ potentially splitting into two pieces and perhaps -NAO look...could make for cyclogenesis potential off the coast depending on where the trough axis sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 the end of the month/first week of November could feature an active weather pattern. Looks like more PNA ridging building out west with what looks like the STJ potentially splitting into two pieces and perhaps -NAO look...could make for cyclogenesis potential off the coast depending on where the trough axis sets up.Yay rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Yay rain If anything the pattern appears to potentially gather a more stormy look to it with more trough-to-ridge-to-trough pattern shaping up. One feature to watch over the coming days.weeks (especially when it comes to looking ahead into the winter) is watch and see how the vortex in the northern Pacific develops. It has started to become much more established over the past week and guidance keeps this a persistent feature. While the NAO may fluctuate, it does look like it will go between being positive/negative and influenced by the placement of the vortex and any storm systems as they move into the northern Atlantic. if this feature becomes established moving forward further east we could be in some big trouble moving into the first part of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 its fooking OCT who cares ? Why saying torch? No. Just looks mild overall and dry. Some places are in drastic need of rain to your south and I was hoping the promised wet Nino pattern/ coastals might start showing up late month into early Nov. There had been hints of it, but they backed off. I'd like to start seeing some coastal storms take shape. A fall with no coastals is never a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 DIT just got DT'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 So something might be in the cards for parts of New England near the 29th. Deep trough in the Mid west with colder air working in, while some models have cyclogenesis off the coast. It's a stretch, but since we are in a doldrum right now...might be something to watch somewhere in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 So something might be in the cards for parts of New England near the 29th. Deep trough in the Mid west with colder air working in, while some models have cyclogenesis off the coast. It's a stretch, but since we are in a doldrum right now...might be something to watch somewhere in New England. There has been a signal, whether it is just FROPA with a frontal wave or we see some more organized consolidated low remains pressure remains to be seen. We have a possible tropical connection from the gulf with a digging trough and good cold air supply in Canada. It may end up being nothing significant but it's at least worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 So something might be in the cards for parts of New England near the 29th. Deep trough in the Mid west with colder air working in, while some models have cyclogenesis off the coast. It's a stretch, but since we are in a doldrum right now...might be something to watch somewhere in New England. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Go big early or go home . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Go big early or go home . We don't want. All empirical evidence suggests northeast snowstorms in October that drop 15-30" of snow, result in atrocious winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 We don't want. All empirical evidence suggests northeast snowstorms in October that drop 15-30" of snow, result in atrocious winters. If you end up with this look @ 500 D -M , you will do fine . But its true for us as well OCT snow don`t help , but again there is no analog to this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Any concern that the convective forcing doesn't return to the dateline after the current mjo wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Any concern that the convective forcing doesn't return to the dateline after the current mjo wave? The CFS likes 160. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 The CFS likes 160. We'll see it was just a thought I had. Could throw a wrench into things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 We'll see it was just a thought I had. Could throw a wrench into things. Yes , you did say that a few weeks back . My question is will 20 degrees make a huge difference or can it be overcome with the EP regime ? Here is the colder looking NMME which looks like the Euro . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 But its true for us as well OCT snow don`t help , but again there is no analog to this year. Pretty sure PF was kidding... Sample size is such that he'd sign for the 1-3' and take his chances.... At least, I would... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Yes , you did say that a few weeks back . My question is will 20 degrees make a huge difference or can it be overcome with the EP regime ? Here is the colder looking NMME which looks like the Euro . I don't think I mentioned anything about the mjo a few weeks back... I'm just posting a thought. Frankly I don't care what the models say right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 ^ It was CS on the 13th . Was not you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 If you end up with this look @ 500 D -M , you will do fine . But its true for us as well OCT snow don`t help , but again there is no analog to this year. Sorry should've put more sarcasm in there. It's more a joke about how some on here hate October snow, thinking it leads to less snowy winters. Especially after 2011-2012 and the big Oct '11 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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