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October, at the moment peering forward, a wild stormy affair?


Typhoon Tip

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12z EURO is actually a fairly snowy day on the mountain on Saturday...maybe 2-3" above 2,000ft but it seems like flakes would be floating around most of the day through 21z.

 

EURO has around 0.4" QPF for the 24-hour period from 00z SAT through 00z SUN for Mount Mansfield, all easily in a snow column for the picnic tables.  Picking up on the orographics with the bullseye on eastern Chittenden County and western Lamoille county.

 

Last weekend of Summer operations and I've got summit duty on Saturday, though will have to close the Toll Road if we start taking on road accums.

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I think the PNA is in a relatively above normal pattern of being positive in the future especially during the EL Nino winter.  Above normal temperatures in the western US leads to below normal temps in the east, but during El NInos there is lower than average temps in the southern US.  That is due to the persistent sub-tropical troughing likely to happen and flood CA with heavy rains and the East Coast sees their own amount of large producing precip events or nor'easters.  I believe one such nor'easter will bring historic snowfall to the SNE region on the week of Christmas, as NAO tanks negative and the PNA stays relatively positive.  Just a hunch.

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Congrats on no more EEE for Bob.

FRI 16| SAT 17| SUN 18| MON 19| TUE 20| WED 21| THU 22|FRI CLIMO

N/X 43 67| 37 54| 29 49| 24 51| 23 62| 46 64| 44 66| 42 40 60

Would be my 1st freeze. 1st frost was a couple weeks ago. Been getting down into the 30s now quite a bit. I love the crisp air in the AM and early evening.

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Powderfreak, it is more a hunch, then a wish.  I just see this positive PNA staying through the west from now through winter, especially with a strong El Nino like Tip said.  This is looking good, which may end up making our winter with an above average snowfall along the coast?  Maybe?  Plus an OES early season event is possible, nothing accumulating, but something to make the mood turn towards winter.

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