powderfreak Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Pretty sure PF was kidding... Sample size is such that he'd sign for the 1-3' and take his chances.... At least, I would... Haha yup. Well some posters are afraid that October snows lead to poor winters...but they are also afraid that if October isn't stormy, then the season won't be very active. So we need a stormy pattern in October, but no snow. Just lots of rainstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Haha yup. Well some posters are afraid that October snows lead to poor winters...but they are also afraid that if October isn't stormy, then the season won't be very active. So we need a stormy pattern in October, but no snow. Just lots of rainstorms. We want cold and stormy Octobers...just not snow. A torch October is bad, a dry October is bad, and snowy Octobers are bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 We want cold and stormy Octobers...just not snow. A torch October is bad, a dry October is bad, and snowy Octobers are bad. lol yup, that's pretty much where we are at in "as the weenie turns." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 We don't want. All empirical evidence suggests northeast snowstorms in October that drop 15-30" of snow, result in atrocious winters. Works for SNE/CNE, but Moosehead to Eustis had 15-20" snowstorm in late Oct. 2000, and that winter turned out OK. (Though lol at the soap opera title.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Decent looking cold shot, a couple of runs now. I also like that split-flow look coming out of the southwest. Nice portent for winter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Out in clown range, but that is the type of look you'd want to get a White Halloween potential. Real arctic high coming in from the plains with some sort of mechanism for cyclogenesis coming out of the south...but ensembles are quite a bit more muted than that look...which is to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Out in clown range, but that is the type of look you'd want to get a White Halloween potential. Real arctic high coming in from the plains with some sort of mechanism for cyclogenesis coming out of the south...but ensembles are quite a bit more muted than that look...which is to be expected. Kind of how Snowtober storm started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 lol yup, that's pretty much where we are at in "as the weenie turns." So October should not be cool, cold, warm, hot, rainy, snowy or sunny? Got it, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Seems like some hints at a possible turn to stormy end of month and potential white Helloween. Euro ENS with decent agreement on coastal storm. Whether or not it's a screamer or cold storm remains to be seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Seems like some hints at a possible turn to stormy end of month and potential white Helloween. Euro ENS with decent agreement on coastal storm. Whether or not it's a screamer or cold storm remains to be seenI like how you left out the benchmark rainer south of the pike possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Halloween storm turned into a cutter/sou easter on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Halloween storm turned into a cutter/sou easter on Euro ? Halloween is the 31st? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 ? Halloween is the 31st?Yes. Fri/sat storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Out in clown range, but that is the type of look you'd want to get a White Halloween potential. Real arctic high coming in from the plains with some sort of mechanism for cyclogenesis coming out of the south...but ensembles are quite a bit more muted than that look...which is to be expected.Looks like a nice -EPO block with a very cold airmass moving into the Canadian Prairies. -20C 850s from the North Pole to Manitoba/Saskatchewan. Sharp temperature gradient off the coast could lead to cyclogenesis should the progged pattern verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2015 Author Share Posted October 21, 2015 sounds like wsi is taking the path of least regret by simply acknowledging the scale of the warm -enso as being so extreme, it really should have proxy on the circulation et al, and be observable much of the time. correlation on that is/was as follows... can't say i disagree in principle; for one, the polar field arc of indices that impact n/a are too stochastic at seasonal time scales to predict, let alone, whether they have enough compensating signal to off-set... unfortunately though, they can and do at times have enough weight in the system to impose the anti-correlation in the 'poker game' of seasonal guess work. that's a deck of cards that just too difficult to count. that's why my own ideas on the season were generally warmer than normal, with some colder impact intervals sprinkled in. that's sort of nod both to wsi vision, and acknowledging the recent trend of -epo-ao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Next week's storm seems to have more of a Lakes cutter look for now. We'll see if that changes but for now it seems like Nrg in the northern stream comes into the N plains and phases with the low coming up out of the Gulf and cuts west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Next week's storm seems to have more of a Lakes cutter look for now. We'll see if that changes but for now it seems like Nrg in the northern stream comes into the N plains and phases with the low coming up out of the Gulf and cuts west. I expect a phase change event with lots of precip followed by a turn to a much milder first week of Nov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I expect a phase change event with lots of precip followed by a turn to a much milder first week of Nov I was just thinking of that as I scrolled down to your reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Next week's storm seems to have more of a Lakes cutter look for now. We'll see if that changes but for now it seems like Nrg in the northern stream comes into the N plains and phases with the low coming up out of the Gulf and cuts west.Nothing wrong with a damaging screamer. Love them in the fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I was just thinking of that as I scrolled down to your reply. Been starting to practice some techniques to roll out the eight week forecast. One method says Novie is pretty mild with stormy colder trough to set up end of the month, Dec surprised me, just a little example of some stuff I have been working on, this would be valid week of Dec 7th or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Nothing wrong with a damaging screamer. Love them in the fall[/quot Especially if it blows the leaves off the lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Ah yes, our old friend from -epo land...(this is day 9, day 10 isn't hard on the eyes either): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Couple of monster cutters showing up on Euro days 8-10+ extrapolated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Couple of monster cutters showing up on Euro days 8-10+ extrapolated You are sure this one is cutting? Pretty impressive Scooter high block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Yes, that is definitely my high cresting over the Great Lakes. Nice how the high slides east with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Plenty of time at 10-11 day lead. Would be a nice deal if it's a cold storm Nov 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Plenty of time at 10-11 day lead. Would be a nice deal if it's a cold storm Nov 2 LOL, you went there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 LOL, you went there. first storm is not a cutter on the ENS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 first storm is not a cutter on the ENS The mean has an elonmgated low with SE winds. Probably more or less hinting at a cutter despite the mean MSLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 The mean has an elonmgated low with SE winds. Probably more or less hinting at a cutter despite the mean MSLP. Interesting height anomalies, that has correction written all over it, wonder if we end up with a strong coastal that hugs the coast instead of 2 storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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