CT Rain Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Maybe I am not thinking it through, but I wonder if that would reduce some of the crazy solutions, but still have some range of possibilities. Anecdotally, the ARW has performed better IMO, than the NMM. I think they're higher resolution too. I'm sure we'll still get a bunch of crazy solutions in the winter when we have complex synoptic interactions going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 I think they're higher resolution too. I'm sure we'll still get a bunch of crazy solutions in the winter when we have complex synoptic interactions going on. Ugh, I know they are good for convection, but would be nice if they showed some stability with synoptic events. Hi resolution models have a tough time with complex interactions going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Ugh, I know they are good for convection, but would be nice if they showed some stability with synoptic events. Hi resolution models have a tough time with complex interactions going on. Yup. Just not very useful. Hopefully we get there one day - but at least the folks at NCEP are aware of the problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 I don't get the sou' east wind fetish.....hardly ever damaging, especially interior. I guess a bit more often at elevations, but bleh. you are more likely to get widespread big winds from a low south of you than some squall line. we get monster southerly llj's most months of the cool season and hardly any of them are memorable. on the other hand, look at feb 2010 in cne/maine, sandy, nov 1950, dec 1992, march 1962... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 you are more likely to get widespread big winds from a low south of you than some squall line. we get monster southerly llj's most months of the cool season and hardly any of them are memorable. on the other hand, look at feb 2010 in cne/maine, sandy, nov 1950, dec 1992, march 1962... Yeah - southerly flow really is not a good direction for damaging wind. You need to get some mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Maybe I am not thinking it through, but I wonder if that would reduce some of the crazy solutions, but still have some range of possibilities. Anecdotally, the ARW has performed better IMO, than the NMM. The ARW keeps my hopes alive most of the time in the winter... like when most models have a storm tracking over the Benchmark, I can count on the ARW members to bring it right over BOS. Always west and always amped. That's the ARW motto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 We'll take it!! Finally some excitement BUFKIT PROFILES ARE NOT STRONGLY INVERTED AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COULD ENHANCE THEMIXING OF SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM TO THE SFC. COULD BE ENOUGH FORSOME DOWNED BRANCHES/SMALL TREES EXACERBATED BY LEAVES STILLHANGING ON LATE. RIGHT NOW...LOOKING AT 45 TO 55 MPH GUSTSPOSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 We'll take it!! Finally some excitement BUFKIT PROFILES ARE NOT STRONGLY INVERTED AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COULD ENHANCE THE MIXING OF SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM TO THE SFC. COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME DOWNED BRANCHES/SMALL TREES EXACERBATED BY LEAVES STILL HANGING ON LATE. RIGHT NOW...LOOKING AT 45 TO 55 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE How do you contain the excitement of the "could be" and "possible?" Wind advisory in a southerly LLJ is fairly run of the mill for eastern SNE. Scott will probably have more trouble with LLWS at work than trees down in his neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 How do you contain the excitement of the "could be" and "possible?" Wind advisory in a southerly LLJ is fairly run of the mill for eastern SNE. Scott will probably have more trouble with LLWS at work than trees down in his neighborhood. I literally just looked ahead on that. Could be good LLWS. Buckle up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 The ARW keeps my hopes alive most of the time in the winter... like when most models have a storm tracking over the Benchmark, I can count on the ARW members to bring it right over BOS. Always west and always amped. That's the ARW motto. Yeah it definitely has those 60hr sh*t show solutions. But at times itś done pretty well in the near term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 How do you contain the excitement of the "could be" and "possible?" Wind advisory in a southerly LLJ is fairly run of the mill for eastern SNE. Scott will probably have more trouble with LLWS at work than trees down in his neighborhood. Just something to possibly look forward to. When I haven't had anything since Morch and facing a possible ratter winter..I need something.So this will have to do..And I'll probably be disappointed..and will just do it again next cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Just something to possibly look forward to. When I haven't had anything since Morch and facing a possible ratter winter..I need something.So this will have to do..And I'll probably be disappointed..and will just do it again next cutter lol at least your honest with yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 lol at least your honest with yourself. Noone knows me like I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Noone knows me like I know. I don get the excitement of always being disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 I don get the excitement of always being disappointed. Even a 45-50 mph gusts can sometimes be enough around here to take down a tree. It's all we've got for the next few months..Might as well look forward to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 It's all we've got for the next few months.Nostradamus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Even a 45-50 mph gusts can sometimes be enough around here to take down a tree. It's all we've got for the next few months..Might as well look forward to something You live in a boring place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 You live in a boring place. This is a rough time of year...you've waited all summer for winter to come, and now the leaves have fallen, so its time to hurry up and wait. The landscape is brown again, its dark early, and everything points towards its time for snow and cold. Except climo says otherwise. Now we just need to get through the next month or so to get to at least the chances for accumulating snows. Even just those 1-3" events are fun early season...the type of events that in March folks are saying its not even worth it. Anyway, you know its boring when the weather highlight of my day is looking at freezing fog and rime ice on the ridgelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 This is a rough time of year...you've waited all summer for winter to come, and now the leaves have fallen, so its time to hurry up and wait. The landscape is brown again, its dark early, and everything points towards its time for snow and cold. Except climo says otherwise. Now we just need to get through the next month or so to get to at least the chances for accumulating snows. Even just those 1-3" events are fun early season...the type of events that in March folks are saying its not even worth it. Anyway, you know its boring when the weather highlight of my day is looking at freezing fog and rime ice on the ridgelines. Our climo right now is like mid April. Even early to mid November isn't much better. Probably like early April in terms of snow but maybe a bit colder on temps just due to the shear hours of darkness we get vs April and sun angle. But the PJ isn't as far south which is why decent snow events are so hard to get prior to mid November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Our climo right now is like mid April. Even early to mid November isn't much better. Probably like early April in terms of snow but maybe a bit colder on temps just due to the shear hours of darkness we get vs April and sun angle. But the PJ isn't as far south which is why decent snow events are so hard to get prior to mid November.look forward to my .4 climo av Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 euro 1-2 rain with gusts in the 40s on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Like OceanStWx and others have opined...some nice gusts in higher elevations per ALY ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDTWEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINDADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDTWEDNESDAY NIGHT.* LOCATIONS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...TACONICS...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.* HAZARDS...SCATTERED DAMAGE FROM DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES.* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...ORWIND GUSTS FROM 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CANMAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USEEXTRA CAUTION.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Like OceanStWx and others have opined...some nice gusts in higher elevations per ALY ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...TACONICS...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. * HAZARDS...SCATTERED DAMAGE FROM DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...OR WIND GUSTS FROM 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Thanks! Your Wind Advisories are up. In the places that usually see winds. Coast and mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Your Wind Advisories are up. In the places that usually see winds. Coast and mountains. lol...higher elevations of the Greens, Daks, N berks = NE Hartford suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Holy tick fest! Walked down the trail out back with the boy and dog. 7 deer ticks between the 3 of us. Dog had the jackpot of 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Your Wind Advisories are up. In the places that usually see winds. Coast and mountains. Yep..we have fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Be interesting to see if we get any convection overnight tomorrow into Thurs AM...south coast special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Winds already cranking out there..Leaves flying everywhere. Gonna be a fun one tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Pretty dynamic system. Even some elevated CAPE, so tstms possible. Quite the LLJ ripping in, but some of that will be inverted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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