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October, at the moment peering forward, a wild stormy affair?


Typhoon Tip

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Something to look forward to over the next 10 days of warm and boredom..newly fallen leaves, drought..and now fall fires

ECENS MEAN HAS AT MOST 0.25-INCHES OVER THE NEXT 8-DAYS WITH HIGHER

AMOUNTS OVER THE N/W HIGH TERRAIN...LEAST S/E. WE MAY NEED TO START
TALKING ABOUT FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

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Man that is an atrocious looking pattern on the ensembles the next 2 weeks. Good Lord

 

What does this even mean?

 

A torch?

 

Definitely does not look like a torch the next two weeks. Looks like cold shots mixed with mild pulses...pretty typical in shoulder seasons.

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What does this even mean?

A torch?

Definitely does not look like a torch the next two weeks. Looks like cold shots mixed with mild pulses...pretty typical in shoulder seasons.

Why saying torch? No. Just looks mild overall and dry. Some places are in drastic need of rain to your south and I was hoping the promised wet Nino pattern/ coastals might start showing up late month into early Nov. There had been hints of it, but they backed off. I'd like to start seeing some coastal storms take shape. A fall with no coastals is never a good thing
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Why saying torch? No. Just looks mild overall and dry. Some places are in drastic need of rain to your south and I was hoping the promised wet Nino pattern/ coastals might start showing up late month into early Nov. There had been hints of it, but they backed off. I'd like to start seeing some coastal storms take shape. A fall with no coastals is never a good thing

 

Well we had a good coastal earlier this month...but there's no way to say we wouldn't get another from that ensemble pattern. There's a mean trough over the east around D10 and then a hint D15.

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Why saying torch? No. Just looks mild overall and dry. Some places are in drastic need of rain to your south and I was hoping the promised wet Nino pattern/ coastals might start showing up late month into early Nov. There had been hints of it, but they backed off. I'd like to start seeing some coastal storms take shape. A fall with no coastals is never a good thing

whats the drastic need of rain?
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I wonder if anyone has seen the latest Euro weeklies? I don't have access myself. If this November is anything like 2009 which was our most recent mod.-strong Nino then I'd be willing to bet it's drier than average. BDL had 2.27" that month.

I saw the temps from the Thursday run, and it was all out torch thru week 4. I know ENS are mostly dry thru day 10
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I remember on here several years ago..someone posted a study or link that showed a low number(or none) of coastal storms in the autumn directly correlated to a lackluster winter(in terms of storminess) And likewise..an active autumn correlated to a very active winter.I don't know who posted it..but I remember it was on here

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I remember on here several years ago..someone posted a study or link that showed a low number(or none) of coastal storms in the autumn directly correlated to a lackluster winter(in terms of storminess) And likewise..an active autumn correlated to a very active winter.I don't know who posted it..but I remember it was on here

 

October 2011?

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I remember on here several years ago..someone posted a study or link that showed a low number(or none) of coastal storms in the autumn directly correlated to a lackluster winter(in terms of storminess) And likewise..an active autumn correlated to a very active winter.I don't know who posted it..but I remember it was on here

Seems anecdotal to me. How would you decide what systems to include? And how do you measure "active"? Number of snowfalls? Above normal precip?

I think it's just one more of those things weenies can get excited about or worry about, but in the end has no real meaning with what happens 3-4 months from now in the heart of winter.

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I remember on here several years ago..someone posted a study or link that showed a low number(or none) of coastal storms in the autumn directly correlated to a lackluster winter(in terms of storminess) And likewise..an active autumn correlated to a very active winter.I don't know who posted it..but I remember it was on here

Hmm, just looking at some recent years that doesn't necessarily seem to be true. At least not always but there may be some positive correlation. But 1997 was dry in October (not in November though) and 2000 was dry in October and November.

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Well generally in the winter we need coastal for great snow seasons. Moisture starved clippers or overrunning can only go so far

Yeah but take like 2012-2013 winter...you got the vast majority of your snow in two big storms. Is that an active year? What if you had 5 storms but less snowfall?

It seems impossible to measure how active a season is and its correlation to October nor'easters.

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