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October, at the moment peering forward, a wild stormy affair?

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Yeah 19 in mid Oct is tough to do anywhere outside of SLK

Most of the strong rad spots have records in the 10s starting about this time of year. CON record for yesterday is 18F done in multiple years. Today's record is 18F in 1964...same year as whatever that site is Tolland is using. I agree it's "tough" though.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

Is there any standard for "torch" or is it just a matter of opinion? 70F in mid October is a seasonably warm day here. 80F would qualify as something more significant (but not historic). 

 

It's all a bunch of subjective jargon... 

 

The term 'torch', like so many invented on these public forums, ...if they have any value at all it is only because (however small) they represent the present Zeitgeist ...and perhaps in some sense, intrinsically decimal to the larger numbers of evolving language - 

 

In purer scientific parlance, they have 0 value.  

 

At least until such time as a scientifically vetted process requires words.  Like, 'overrunning' meant nothing a 100 years back, but in that time, the defining of that particular Meteorological process required the adaptation for/within weather vernacular.  Now, overrunning means something both to science and lay-person (but is really a front for isentropic lift, but we won't go there).  

 

I don't see 'torch' per se, ever gaining a fixed meaning/application, though. It's just too subjective...  If you really want to be defined, you'd have to say any decimal above the 30-year mean (or something) is above normal ...and since torch is inherently above normal, there you go.  But we all know the 'spirit' of torch is really just a venting for frustrated winter addicts looking for a similar ship souls to sail the seas of commiseration.  Anything heading in the wrong direction enough to interfere with the timely arrival of their drug, hugely tears up the forum rooms at the local methadone clinic - so to speak...

 

I think 77 F on October 12 certainly qualifies to the subjective rules as forced intervention ;)     

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Torch up at Savoy with 73F at 1,900ft and 71F at Windsor (2,100ft).

 

Both my car and truck were coming in at 67. 

 

Other current readings in the area:

 

Ashfield stations:  69, 67, 69, 64

Greenfield 70

Conway 68

Plainfield 68

Goshen 66

 

Was down at Meineke in Greenfield (that's why I had both my car and truck readings as I'm doing the automotive musical chairs to pay for it/pick it up when my wife gets home).  Apparently some woman hit a bicyclist right in front of the place right before I got there--the road was closed.  Apparently, they flew him out.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Sipprell once again going absolutely bonkers and overboard

FRIDAY - SATURDAY ...


BROAD H5 TROUGHING DIGGING THROUGH THE NE-CONUS WITH HEIGHT FALLS ON
THE ORDER OF -2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT E OVER N NEW ENGLAND. LIKELY WET-WEATHER BULK OF WHICH
LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AS THE POSSIBILITY
OF SUNSHINE YIELDS A COMBINATION OF DIURNAL FORCING WITHIN STEEP
BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILES AHEAD OF A STRONG CONTINENTIAL-POLAR IMPULSE
AND REINFORCING SECONDARY COLD FRONT. DURING BOTH TIMEFRAMES COULD
SEE THE FIRST WET-SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON OVER THE BERKSHIRES. NOT
APPEARING TO BE A WASHOUT OVERALL.

BUT A BIGGER CONCERN IS THE WINDS CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF LEAVES
REMAINING ON THE TREES. TWO PERIODS OF FOCUS: FRIDAY WITH STRONG
S/SW-WINDS AHEAD OF THE INITIAL FRONT...AND ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG
NW-WINDS IMMEDIATELY IN WAKE OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. FRIDAY THE
FOCUS IS ALONG THE S/SE-COAST...WHILE FOR SATURDAY THE FOCUS IS OVER
THE INTERIOR. WHILE WITH THE AUTUMN SEASON MOST LEAVES WILL LIKELY
FLUTTER THROUGH THE AIR...THERE WOULD STILL BE THE THREAT OF WIND-
RELATED DAMAGE SHOULD THE MODEL-FORECAST H925 30-40 MPH WINDS FOR
BOTH PERIODS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN ENVIRONMENTS OF STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON UP TO H85. FOR NOW THE CIPS ANALOGS HAS AT
LEAST A 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF 35 MPH WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY FOR SE
NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. WILL FORECAST AS SUCH.

SUNDAY - MONDAY ...

ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO -5C ACROSS THE
REGION...ANOMALOUS ON THE ORDER OF -10C FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PER
CIPS ANALOGS DEFINITE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE LIKELIHOOD
OF MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND SEEING AT- OR BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FOR AT LEAST 1 HOUR OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND. IT
IS QUITE POSSIBLE AREAS N AND W COULD SEE A MUCH LONGER PERIOD ON
THE ORDER OF 3-6 HOURS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS INTO MORNING OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONSIDERING FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...MUCH OF THIS DRIVEN BY COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Sipprell once again going absolutely bonkers and overboard

FRIDAY - SATURDAY ...

BROAD H5 TROUGHING DIGGING THROUGH THE NE-CONUS WITH HEIGHT FALLS ON

THE ORDER OF -2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE

DEVELOPMENT E OVER N NEW ENGLAND. LIKELY WET-WEATHER BULK OF WHICH

LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE

LOW PRESSURE WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AS THE POSSIBILITY

OF SUNSHINE YIELDS A COMBINATION OF DIURNAL FORCING WITHIN STEEP

BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILES AHEAD OF A STRONG CONTINENTIAL-POLAR IMPULSE

AND REINFORCING SECONDARY COLD FRONT. DURING BOTH TIMEFRAMES COULD

SEE THE FIRST WET-SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON OVER THE BERKSHIRES. NOT

APPEARING TO BE A WASHOUT OVERALL.

BUT A BIGGER CONCERN IS THE WINDS CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF LEAVES

REMAINING ON THE TREES. TWO PERIODS OF FOCUS: FRIDAY WITH STRONG

S/SW-WINDS AHEAD OF THE INITIAL FRONT...AND ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG

NW-WINDS IMMEDIATELY IN WAKE OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. FRIDAY THE

FOCUS IS ALONG THE S/SE-COAST...WHILE FOR SATURDAY THE FOCUS IS OVER

THE INTERIOR. WHILE WITH THE AUTUMN SEASON MOST LEAVES WILL LIKELY

FLUTTER THROUGH THE AIR...THERE WOULD STILL BE THE THREAT OF WIND-

RELATED DAMAGE SHOULD THE MODEL-FORECAST H925 30-40 MPH WINDS FOR

BOTH PERIODS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN ENVIRONMENTS OF STEEP LOW-

LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON UP TO H85. FOR NOW THE CIPS ANALOGS HAS AT

LEAST A 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF 35 MPH WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY FOR SE

NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. WILL FORECAST AS SUCH.

SUNDAY - MONDAY ...

ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO -5C ACROSS THE

REGION...ANOMALOUS ON THE ORDER OF -10C FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PER

CIPS ANALOGS DEFINITE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE LIKELIHOOD

OF MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND SEEING AT- OR BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES

FOR AT LEAST 1 HOUR OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND. IT

IS QUITE POSSIBLE AREAS N AND W COULD SEE A MUCH LONGER PERIOD ON

THE ORDER OF 3-6 HOURS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS INTO MORNING OF

FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONSIDERING FROST/FREEZE

HEADLINES AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...MUCH OF THIS DRIVEN BY COLD AIR

ADVECTION.

 

I don't see anything untoward about that write-up.  He didn't "make" anything up about what's going on with the model depictions during that time frame. 

 

What stands out as "bonkers" ?   

 

I think I figured you out finally...  you read his write-up like this:

 

xxx xxxxxxx xxxx x xxxxxxx xxxxx xxx xx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxxx xx xx xxxxxxxx  

SNOW

xx xxxx ... 

 

and then went, HEEE HAA HEE HAAA HEE HAAA bonkers.

 

Meanwhile, everyone read it as it was, merely talking about sub-zero 850s and possible instability due to diurnal heating causing frozen in the elevations of the Berks and nothing more...  

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

I don't see anything untoward about that write-up.  He didn't "make" anything up about what's going on with the model depictions during that time frame. 

 

What stands out as "bonkers" ?   

 

I think I figured you out finally...  you read his write-up like this:

 

xxx xxxxxxx xxxx x xxxxxxx xxxxx xxx xx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxxx xx xx xxxxxxxx  

SNOW

xx xxxx ... 

 

and then went, HEEE HAA HEE HAAA HEE HAAA bonkers.

 

Meanwhile, everyone read it as it was, merely talking about sub-zero 850s and possible instability due to diurnal heating causing frozen in the elevations of the Berks and nothing more...  

 

Welcome to the party.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Both my car and truck were coming in at 67.

Other current readings in the area:

Ashfield stations: 69, 67, 69, 64

Greenfield 70

Conway 68

Plainfield 68

Goshen 66

Was down at Meineke in Greenfield (that's why I had both my car and truck readings as I'm doing the automotive musical chairs to pay for it/pick it up when my wife gets home). Apparently some woman hit a bicyclist right in front of the place right before I got there--the road was closed. Apparently, they flew him out.

Just busting your balls dude, haha.

64F at 4,000ft today, which is why I thought those low 70s at 2,000ft were legit.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

MPM just causing PF to have another aneurysm as he defies the perfect lapse rate algorithms

LOL

Wikipedia says:

"When the air rises (for instance, by convection) it expands, because the pressure is lower at higher altitudes. As the air parcel expands, it pushes on the air around it, doing work (thermodynamics). Since the parcel does work but gains no heat, it loses internal energy so that its temperature decreases. The rate of temperature decrease is 9.8 °C/km (5.38 °F per 1,000 ft) (3.0 °C/1,000 ft). The reverse occurs for a sinking parcel of air, except in certain spots of Massachusetts (USA) and Connecticut (USA)."

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

71.3 was my high. This has been an unreal stretch since mid Sept

Yeah, Mansfield was within a couple degrees of the record high today. Very warm airmass.

Had 75F for a high at 1,550ft.

MVL at 750ft was 77F on the hour but may have snuck higher. Same with MPV at 1200ft, hourly high of 75F but may have gone higher between hours.

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J Paul Gordon

J Paul Gordon

Posted
Posted

ORH has averaged 1.7F BN for October. Sure that will be cut after today and tomorrow and be made up for (and then some) in the next cool down. Even with a AN end to the month, it wouldn't surprise me if we end up  a degree or two BN. Of course, that doesn't make up for September's departures and whatever may (or may not) come in November and December.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

ORH has averaged 1.7F BN for October. Sure that will be cut after today and tomorrow and be made up for (and then some) in the next cool down. Even with a AN end to the month, it wouldn't surprise me if we end up  a degree or two BN. Of course, that doesn't make up for September's departures and whatever may (or may not) come in November and December.

There's more to life than ORH

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

LOL

Wikipedia says:

"When the air rises (for instance, by convection) it expands, because the pressure is lower at higher altitudes. As the air parcel expands, it pushes on the air around it, doing work (thermodynamics). Since the parcel does work but gains no heat, it loses internal energy so that its temperature decreases. The rate of temperature decrease is 9.8 °C/km (5.38 °F per 1,000 ft) (3.0 °C/1,000 ft). The reverse occurs for a sinking parcel of air, except in certain spots of Massachusetts (USA) and Connecticut (USA)."

 

 

Gods country does not obey thermodynamics.

 

LOL.

 

I think PF's Savoy station is reading high.

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