October, at the moment peering forward, a wild stormy affair?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Nice look

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I'm not getting too excited but the drumbeats are getting louder

Nice to see even if it is la la land

Ha, ha, when do you ever get excited about a modeled storm.

I'm just looking for some interesting weather to track. It has been months of dullness.

[Typhoon Tip]

 

Everyone remember this one?

 

 

 

 

Vaguely ... I was only 5

[Typhoon Tip]

The warm models will probably correct colder, MJO going into Phase two is a colder signal in October and we have pretty good analog support for some decent outbreaks of cold weather in mid and late October in Strong Nino events.

 

 

What a cold shot into the Lakes and northeast on the euro next weekend. Might be overdone, but the models all have something.

 

 

I was impressed when I saw the GFS operational ... for one, that's many cycles elaborating sub-540 DM thickness well below the latitude of NYC, and doing so for more than a mere 24 hours. 

 

That's the rub for determinism in October.  Per my own experience, I cannot tell you how many times I've seen that sort of scenario mapped onto a D6-9 time frame, and when verification arrives, it's a rapid turn over between a sharp cold shot and return flow of milder air off a receding high.  I've seen 2 PM temperatures of just 40 with a DP of 9 F, go all the way to 70/35 as little as 24 hours later, with nothing other than veering winds to suggest the incoming change.  

 

Autumn is notorious in my personal experiences for intense short term synoptic scale changes. I think that is both statistically found, but intuitive to most people anyway; hell, it's the "transition" season for more than just changing of the season.  In order to do so, there has to be turns of weather phrases - 

 

This time there might just be more foundation to support longevity to cooler departures.  The overnight teleconnector packages are pretty heftily directive in that regard.  The PNA is ludicrous at both agencies heading through the end of the weak, rising as the time elapses... and the NAO - hasn't been very dependable even in the clustered weight of the ensemble derivatives, but the CDC has slipped well negative, and the CPC has about half the members doing so.  So for what it's worth, that's more support.  

 

As a more 'holistic' perspective ... we've seen more October snow and cold mid level troposphere events in the last 12 years, than I wonder was ever witness in the prior 40 years combined.  That's hyperbole, but something about .... all of it, is supplying a truth that the frequency has been above normal across that approximate recent decade or so.  Fascinating... cause aside, seeing these teleconnector backed operational characteristic flow times and consequential cooling certainly fits with that propensity.  Not sure how much this "mystique" can offer determinism, but sometimes ... it's just hard, if not unwise, to knock consistency.  

 

I was almost going to start a thread specific for that 2-3 days window, backed by teleconnector support and defining it as the fledgling season's first party; perhaps outlining uncertainties above, but exploring how cool it would be, and if we'd have to endure PF's languishing endlessly in his riches of upslope summit dumps...

[Ginx snewx]

First call 8-12 Stowe next weekend

[Damage In Tolland]

We flake

POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE

HIGHER TERRAIN FRI NIGHT IF THERE IS ANY PRECIP.

[Typhoon Tip]

By the way ... 

 

it may not be outright depicted in the guidance, but the mass field numbers support a deeper mid lvl solution in eastern N/A spanning next weekend into the early part of that next week ... Which if so, certainly enough imported/supportive baroclinic gradient would be in place for a more organized 'winter like' cyclogensis.  

 

I think folks are in for a rude awakening, either way - this will be the first penetrating chill air mass, and it doesn't appear to be a brief incursion/roll-out into the Maritimes, followed by return flow warming, either.  In other words, it may bounce the region form early autumn to late autumn/early winter regime, effectively shutting down the outdoor season ... and doing so rather fast after recent banality may have the region complicit.   Not major, but lowered acclimation setting up the region for acute annoyance.  

 

We'll see if something more sets up the forumsphere for an inevitable backdraft over how October winter events herald in a non-winter ...  

[Damage In Tolland]

By the way ... 

 

it may not be outright depicted in the guidance, but the mass field numbers support a deeper mid lvl solution in eastern N/A spanning next weekend into the early part of that next week ... Which if so, certainly enough imported/supportive baroclinic gradient would be in place for a more organized 'winter like' cyclogensis.  

 

I think folks are in for a rude awakening, either way - this will be the first penetrating chill air mass, and it doesn't appear to be a brief incursion/roll-out into the Maritimes, followed by return flow warming, either.  In other words, it may bounce the region form early autumn to late autumn/early winter regime, effectively shutting down the outdoor season ... and doing so rather fast after recent banality may have the region complicit.   Not major, but lowered acclimation setting up the region for acute annoyance.  

 

We'll see if something more sets up the forumsphere for an inevitable backdraft over how October winter events herald in a non-winter ...  

Couple days in the upper 30's hills to middle 40's valleys and coastal plain. With some Lake effect streamers/ flakes easily making it into some of the area..Probably comes with wind too,,,so won't realize max lows..but mid-upper 20's should happen even with wind staying up

[CoastalWx]

U30s? Was the euro that cold or is this classic

Kevin?

[Damage In Tolland]

U30s? Was the euro that cold or is this classic

Kevin?

I don't think it was that was cold. I'm just adjusting for climo and past experiences with thicknesses like that this time of year. It's on par with that cold blast maybe 5 Halloween 's ago when it was in the 30's with flurries at trick or treat time here. Might have been the year before October snow bomb. Maybe 2

[Ginx snewx]

I don't think it was that was cold. I'm just adjusting for climo and past experiences with thicknesses like that this time of year. It's on par with that cold blast maybe 5 Halloween 's ago when it was in the 30's with flurries at trick or treat time here. Might have been the year before October snow bomb. Maybe 2

Actually the year of the snow bomb like a week before

[Damage In Tolland]

Actually the year of the snow bomb like a week before

There was a cold Halloween before the snow bomb though. I remember it was 38 and windy when I took the girls out and there was some flurries

[dendrite]

I don't think it was that was cold. I'm just adjusting for climo and past experiences with thicknesses like that this time of year. It's on par with that cold blast maybe 5 Halloween 's ago when it was in the 30's with flurries at trick or treat time here. Might have been the year before October snow bomb. Maybe 2

The clown 18z temps around d8 have upper 40s there. Light NW flow with 850s around -4C.

I think 09 had the early/mid October cold shots.

[Damage In Tolland]

The clown 18z temps around d8 have upper 40s there. Light NW flow with 850s around -4C.

I think 09 had the early/mid October cold shots.

Ok upper 30's too cold then. Low- mid 40's. Still will be nice

[Ginx snewx]

There was a cold Halloween before the snow bomb though. I remember it was 38 and windy when I took the girls out and there was some flurries

2009

[dendrite]

2009

09 was cold mid month. I had a T of snow on Halloween 2010 so maybe that was it.

[powderfreak]

First call 8-12 Stowe next weekend

Nice place to start, we can raise amounts as we get closer if needed.

I'm just leaning towards snow showers, which would be fine this time of year.

[Ginx snewx]

Nice place to start, we can raise amounts as we get closer if needed.

I'm just leaning towards snow showers, which would be fine this time of year.

lol

[OceanStWx]

Nice place to start, we can raise amounts as we get closer if needed.

I'm just leaning towards snow showers, which would be fine this time of year.

GFS tries to pop something late too, but even if it doesn't that trof swinging through with 850 temps around -5 C should be more than enough to dust the higher elevations, and even down the valley floors.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

00z Gfs offers a few chances for a good number of folks in NE to see flakes

[powderfreak]

GFS tries to pop something late too, but even if it doesn't that trof swinging through with 850 temps around -5 C should be more than enough to dust the higher elevations, and even down the valley floors.

It's the time of year for popcorn orographic and lake induced showers as upper troughs move overhead. A thousand small cellular showers dropping wet flakes and graupel. We are bound to get one of those days.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Upper 20s next Sunday morning

[moneypitmike]

It's the time of year for popcorn orographic and lake induced showers as upper troughs move overhead. A thousand small cellular showers dropping wet flakes and graupel. We are bound to get one of those days.

 

You have magical winters.

 

Yesterday, I was remembering a work trip in VT with my boss.  It was October (may Halloween, but I think a little earlier as there were still leaves on the trees), and I think it was in 2005.   Driving from BTV to Norwich University we hit a heavy wet snow.  I think it ended up being 8-12".  Of course, back at our hotel in BTV we were enjoying a cold rain.

[Damage In Tolland]

Ens don't want much to do with the coastal the op has.

[Damage In Tolland]

Seems like after the cold next weekend the last 10 days of the month want to torch..as PAC jet roars to life

[dendrite]

MEX already has SLK at 18F. 15F below MOS climo at 180hr...not bad.

[powderfreak]

You have magical winters.

Yesterday, I was remembering a work trip in VT with my boss. It was October (may Halloween, but I think a little earlier as there were still leaves on the trees), and I think it was in 2005. Driving from BTV to Norwich University we hit a heavy wet snow. I think it ended up being 8-12". Of course, back at our hotel in BTV we were enjoying a cold rain.

Yeah there were several October heavy wet snows back then in 2005 and 2006. We had like a 30" natural base on the mountain one of those years...whatever year was Hurricane Wilma. The tropical remnants collided with cold and just dumped on the mountains. I skied Killington that October with like 60 trails open, all on natural snow. If you could get to a trail off the top of the K1 Gondola, it was fair game and open. Of course that only lasted a few days before it started melting and skiing was back down to the snowmaking routes.

That year is also the only time I've skied glades at Stowe in October.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah there were several October heavy wet snows back then in 2005 and 2006. We had like a 30" natural base on the mountain one of those years...whatever year was Hurricane Wilma. The tropical remnants collided with cold and just dumped on the mountains. I skied Killington that October with like 60 trails open, all on natural snow. If you could get to a trail off the top of the K1 Gondola, it was fair game and open. Of course that only lasted a few days before it started melting and skiing was back down to the snowmaking routes.

That year is also the only time I've skied glades at Stowe in October.

 

Mountain/terrain Meteorology/climo notwithstanding ...  this has been a continental/regional phenomenon, really. 

 

I mentioned this awhile ago in this thread... (and multiple times over recent years and reasons), how the last 10 to 15 years has verified a plethora of those synoptics, or scenarios close to -

 

(it's tough to remember sometimes, that the actual advent of a thing, is often less important than the frequency of the governing parameters that led to the thing; i.e., hearkening to 'system status' promoting)

 

- those required for cold October (absurdly early) events.  

 

Why?  

 

I happens once, meh.

 

I happens twice, that weird, but meh.

 

Three, four... five times in a 2-decade span? okay, but the life-travails of days to months to years of decadal living, and those too are forgotten all too easily.

 

But you get to like ...I dunno, seems like 10 or 12 of the last 15 years have featured said 'favored' governing parameters et al (whether they have succeeded to produce any actual snow or not) and you that's a sample set with a bit more weight ( I wonder). Something in the system is causing this to happen, would not be an absurd question to formulate. 

 

In fact, I'd even speculate whether it were a 'book-end' thing...  We've seen some cool Spring, seasonal regression scenarios at times, too. I recall in 2000-2004 ... a couple of those springs snowed on Boston Common, and Worcester actually accumulated snow in one that occurred as late as May 19 I think it was.  Nothing of the 1977 lore, no.. .But having snow in the air that late, with that frequency, particularly given to the more coherent autumn frequency, smacks of something worth deeper study to me.  Our growing seasons have also taken dents in the pre-June 15 period, too.

 

Interesting

[Randy4Confluence]

Not bad. The PNA goes negative after this, but everything's transient in OCT so ....

 

 

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Interesting setup next Sat on Euro