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October, at the moment peering forward, a wild stormy affair?


Typhoon Tip

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PF,  was the Euro further south?   I think I heard it was last night but todays 12Z was further north too.   Whatever happens you'll have some upslope up there and I will get my stray flurry!

 

Euro has moved steadily north the past two runs.  Wayyyy out there in time though, so its all just entertainment value (which is low in this case).

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Warmth? Divulge?

Doesnt appear to be a torch like today and yesterday, but after the cold blast Sunday/Monday.. Pac jet roars to life and blasts some mild air across the northern tier. Looks like some sort of a split flow as it undercuts the -EPO. Probably means several AN days then a frontal passage then another quick warmup etc etc. Probably also a lot of wind
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October being October.

Yeah, I wouldn't make it sound like this is the massive Nino giving us wide swings in October, ha. We aren't going to just go below 0C at H85 on October 18th and stay there through the winter. You have to expect some rebound warmth behind fall cold snaps (Indian Summer days).

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Up to 64 here and expecting a high around 74. 

 

This is the true meaning of seasons in seasons. Great stuff. Hope we keep the slightly positive warm departures right through Thanksgiving. 

I don't mind a torch this time of year since there's no chance of snow at all or retaining a pack.  I'm good with a torch in winter if the ground is bare as well.

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Hard to believe normals are in the 30's. Still haven't dropped below 40 here yet.

 

Tolland High WxSTEM ‏@THSWxSTEM 

 

Normal high for today: 63 F, normal low: 37 F. Records: High 87 F (1954), Low 19 F (1964). Sunset: 6:12 PM.

When was the first 30s last year? Nights seem to have been milder here but I missed the past week. In any case, sub 40 seems a lock within the next week region wide. Many radiating spots near Boston have had several nights near freezing already.

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Should dip below 40 late in the week. 

 

Continental amplitude of flow still in the offing ... supported both by trend and present mass-field derivatives...blah blah, but a series of moisture starved c-fropas will stage the region down...perhaps 5-7 F per day, beginning tomorrow.  May have a day-time highs in the 40's with hard freezes region wide across next weekend.  Sat/Sun MOS products appear climate tinted and too warm comparted to synoptics/a-priori on these types of patterns.   That's a "cold shot" there...

 

There after, it's possible the cool regime rolls up into the Maritime lat/lons ... bulging heights back polarward over the OV and eventually mock Indian summers us, but neither agency teleconnectors means for the NAO are as emphatic about doing so as the operational Euro/GFS.  Transition season banality and ennui in surplus - time will tell though. 

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When was the first 30s last year? Nights seem to have been milder here but I missed the past week. In any case, sub 40 seems a lock within the next week region wide. Many radiating spots near Boston have had several nights near freezing already.

 

Average low at Kevin's isn't in the 30s yet if he's a non-radiating location (which we know he is). Those numbers he posted from the tweet would have to be from an area of town that radiates quite well.

 

ORH's average low doesn't even reach 39F until 10/20.

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