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Spring Banter - Pushing up Tulips


Baroclinic Zone

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I was back on eastern, But lurked on WWBB

 

Same here - joined eastern early in 2005, just in time for the nice snow dump that Feb-Mar.  Had 60" in 31 days; before E.MA and EPO this past winter, I thought that to be a lot.  :lmao:     And seeing cool spruce mentioned is bittersweet - before his illness, he and I were much on the same wavelength, except for his photography being far far above my class.

 

Upper 20s with a solid frost at my place this morning, and saw 25 for BML.  Morning gfs suggests we may do it again about day 7 (for all that's worth.)

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Same here - joined eastern early in 2005, just in time for the nice snow dump that Feb-Mar.  Had 60" in 31 days; before E.MA and EPO this past winter, I thought that to be a lot.  :lmao:     And seeing cool spruuce mentioned is bittersweet - before his illness, he and I were much on the same wavelength, except for his photography being far far above my class.

 

Upper 20s with a solid frost at my place this morning, and saw 25 for BML.  Morning gfs suggests we may do it again about day 7 (for all that's worth.)

 

Upper

 

Yeah, I miss cool spruce, He was a decent poster and gave us a DE presence, His obs could have been very usefull this past winter, I had 31.6°F here at 5:20 am, Glad i brought in my girls last night

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Think I may have caught an ear infection from hot tub water getting in it...unless the ear pain is related to my tooth but holy poop does this hurt.

a bunch of people I know have gotten ear infections these past couple of weeks, get to a DR now before you are really hurting.

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LOL. They dont get old

 

lol. Why do I find this so funny? Probably for the same reason I find all of those Thug Life videos funny. My sense of humor is very low brow and even lower grade.

 

See, I started watching it and couldn't figure out if it was supposed to be funny, sad or what.  It must be more for the ADHD crowd which can't pay attention to anything for more than 2 seconds because it kept switching from one thing to another.  What is the way the guy was saying "these nuts"?  I just don't get what's supposed to be funny about that and I find a lot of things funny....just not that.

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What's interesting about that BD potential for the latter weekend is that most models depicted the surface high associated as nearly a third of the way across the N Atlantic to Europe before the GOM aspect of the air masses even begins to back... 

 

It all comes down to that spurious vorticity lobe depicted in most guidance ...trundling about over eastern Alberta on the 12z initialization.  That feature gets kicked down stream, rounds the ridge that is in the process of burgeoning in the E, and then careens SSE through the GOM... It's track is key...

 

If that southward turn is sooner, such that it takes it more through middle GOM lat/lon, then it's backside DVM piles up the goods and drills nearly 40 kts of BD pulsed winds that knock light sail boats on their sides and slam screen doors as far SW as DC down the coast..  One thing to remember, these types of wind burst are not always suggested by isobaric gradient. Rapid P rises like 12 mb in 4 hours or less would cause a lot of restorative forced gusting... 

 

If it translates more outer GOM or even closer to NS (not out of the realm of possibilities given to subtle trends and progressive flow arguments combined...) than the BD comes in more like a side door front from the straight E after exhausting most momentum before arrival. Probably doesn't get that far inland in this latter paradigm, either. 

 

As is, the operational blend is still close enough to bring in a potent BD though. But there is a subtle trend to back off its potency. It's worth mentioning because there is a lot of bust potential should the newer guidance start making that v-max more progressive.   

 

No shortage of BD this year though.   Been a while since we've had a solid butt-sore BD spring...

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