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Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp


Wow

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Gotta wonder though if that's reality if the low stays closed for longer. It takes a track where probably worst case as it flies over head it quickly changes over to snow and lays down 1-2 inches. Anyone on the NW side is gonna get plastered. 

well The nam has shifted the 0c 850mb isotherm over 100 miles further north since yesterday. Whatever is happening folks should hope it stops..unless you are in virginia.

 

the one thing i would caution though is the nam looks way over done with precip so there could be a lot of waa that is overdone. But...again it can't be discounted this year.

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How does that high in SE Canada and the NE look? East said that should keep the storm from going too far north.

I could be completely off, but I feel like later trends as we approach the storm have had the blocking up north kind of move out faster than progged which has had the systems come more north as we get closer
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Honestly DT's map with the 8-10" line is as if he saw the 00z NAM early...just shift it south and east a half a county or so and it's verbatim almost.

thing is, if it nam is right we get 2" tomorrow then additional snow thurs.  would have close to a foot on the ground by friday.  not sold on the high qpf though.

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well The nam has shifted the 0c 850mb isotherm over 100 miles further north since yesterday. Whatever is happening folks should hope it stops..unless you are in virginia.

 

the one thing i would caution though is the nam looks way over done with precip so there could be a lot of waa that is overdone. But...again it can't be discounted this year.

Ya, this could be a really bad sign...LOL  Might have to adjust the map tonight if the GFS comes north.  If the DOC and CMC do as well...it might be lights out in the 20 corridor

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I could be completely off, but I feel like later trends as we approach the storm have had the blocking up north kind of move out faster than progged which has had the systems come more north as we get closer

I meant the low. This is what East said on his blog this morning.

"What can go wrong? First of all, there is only so far NW this can trend this time around due to the big low in SE Canada and the Northeast, so some additional NW ticks are possible, but I don't think this winds up a big rainstorm for western and central NC. Areas in northern SC though...it could get trickier."

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Guys calm down the surface low is not going to go any farther north than south georgia. It can hug the Atlantic Coast but north ga posters should be fine. The precip shift has to do with the energy being stronger and taking on more of a negative tilt.

 

It's the SFC and 850 temps...they're warm as hell. We would be getting a heavy rain, not a heavy snow..ugh. Imagine the rates with this storm too...really would like to see some heavy snow...haven't seen any in 4 years now.

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