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Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx


burgertime

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1010 slp along the Louisiana/Mississippi border. Weak surface pressures with this overrunning event, Can we even call it a MIller B type with the organization of the slp that weak? Maybe the coastal will be 998 or so, we will see.

pmsl.gif?1424108034503

Seems similar to the models, maybe a tick south and east, but hard to tell.
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SE winds already for metro area. Not liking.

 

Yes... the surface southeasterly winds are going to absolutely critical here... HRRR is depicting a very tight temperature gradient between Hickory and Charlotte primarily due to where surface low tracks. The problem is there is this initial inverted trough which has set up over the east side of the Apps and the surface riding is not optimally placed for surface (hence southeasterly and not northeasterly winds). Thats why temperatures are warming areas CLT and southward. We need the precipitation to arrive here soon so temperatures can wetbulb and allow the in situ ridge to become entrenched and revert these winds back to northeasterly. That is what the HRRR does later in the forecast. If its too slow with the progression of the precip though, it might also be too slow with the winds flipping to northeasterly again as the in situ ridge intensifies. 

 

Right now it has Charlotte on the warm side of the boundary unfortunately which means primarily rain. Greenville, SC is literally on the edge between substantial frozen precipitation and more of a nuisance variety per HRRR. Hickory is entrenched in the cold sector and will probably go Snow/Sleet for the duration of the precipitation.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_2d_flt.php

 

b4wC5Bm.png

 

TLpp3W6.png

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Yes... the surface winds are going to absolutely critical here... HRRR is depicting a very tight temperature gradient between Hickory and Charlotte primarily due to where surface low tracks. Right now it has Charlotte on the warm side of the boundary unfortunately which means primarily rain. Greenville, SC is literally on the edge between substantial frozen precipitation and more of a nuisance variety per HRRR. Hickory is entrenched in the cold sector and will probably go Snow/Sleet for the duration of the precipitation.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_2d_flt.php

img]

Wow sure is a tight temperature gradient. My closest airport is KFQD in Rutherford County. Your map states 31° and I'm right on the line!

Thanks for posting!!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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looks like GSP is out of this one.  Both the latest NAM and GFS have us above freezing and have no hint of anything frozen.  Just Cold Rain.  Good luck fellow SE posters.  An hour ago our WB was still 22 so there is a chance.  But if the GFS/NAM are handling thermals correctly at all......good night.

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looks like GSP is out of this one.  Both the latest NAM and GFS have us above freezing and have no hint of anything frozen.  Just Cold Rain.  Good luck fellow SE posters.  An hour ago our WB was still 22 so there is a chance.  But if the GFS/NAM are handling thermals correctly at all......good night.

:huh:

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looks like GSP is out of this one.  Both the latest NAM and GFS have us above freezing and have no hint of anything frozen.  Just Cold Rain.  Good luck fellow SE posters.  An hour ago our WB was still 22 so there is a chance.  But if the GFS/NAM are handling thermals correctly at all......good night.

see current obs thread

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based on radar trends i think rdu has a good shot of seeing an initial 1" of snow before changeover to sleet.  snowing already in roxboro and continuing to move south.  hrrr has been way off based on radar.

Precip increasing off the mountains. I would think that is what will eventually get us.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=gsp&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

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looks like GSP is out of this one.  Both the latest NAM and GFS have us above freezing and have no hint of anything frozen.  Just Cold Rain.  Good luck fellow SE posters.  An hour ago our WB was still 22 so there is a chance.  But if the GFS/NAM are handling thermals correctly at all......good night.

34 off of Augusta road in Greenville. right now and have a few flurries. Nice to see something frozen. I believe the wet bulbs will drive the temps down to around 31-32 degrees once it starts. 

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If precip starts in RDU earlier than expected, a lot of people are gonna be caught off guard again. People wait too long to leave work IMO... I know there are extenuating circumstances sometime... but I remember what happened last year and cars were stranded everywhere

It shouldn't be too bad. The initial precip shouldn't melt because the roads are cold so you won't have that layer of ice that causes the disastrous travel situations.

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This is because the HRRR has substantially less cloud cover forecasted than reality.

 

hrrr_ncep_ir_KGSO_7.png

 

avn.jpg

 

Ahh, thanks for passing that along. I tried looking at OLR forecast elsewhere but the frames weren't loading for whatever reason. Interested to see if the freezing/non-freezing precip boundary extends further south than progged tonight as a result.

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Not saying either of you are right or wrong, but the observations we are seeing go along with what we thought we would see the first little bit of it. But everyone is above freezing and temps don't seem to be dropping in the upstate.

 

I was basing my comments strickly on what the latest GFS and NAM results were (which I know are MR and not a SR models).  But it did show a significant bump in 2M temps from what they have been showing for the last couple of days.

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I was basing my comments strickly on what the latest GFS and NAM results were (which I know are MR and not a SR models).  But it did show a significant bump in 2M temps from what they have been showing for the last couple of days.

 

There is a significant bump, but they don't reflect the actual temperature lol. GFS had 41, actual temp 34 for Greenville at 1PM.

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