SouthCoastMA Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I think that depends on your definition of significance.... also, there may be a bit of a taint issue with the coastal along the south coast. 8+ I would consider significant. And yes, most models currently do advertise taint on the south coast, hence the status quo down here does not suggest anything significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 1717 getting bored and wants to come out to play Test run was at EPO, now it wants a larger audience. Certainly will be more than cold enough in C.Maine. Question will be the northerly cutoff location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Through 72 it looks just like the GFS That isn't too bad of a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I need to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Test run was at EPO, now it wants a larger audience. Certainly will be more than cold enough in C.Maine. Question will be the northerly cutoff location. With that cold high to the north, That can always be an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Does that include the coastal on the Ukie or is that just the overrunning piece? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Northern outliers coming south, southern outliers coming north ... goalposts are narrowing. Mass pike to VT/NH border seems the place to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 you did I was afraid that the SW would keep digging so much less, that the obligatory last minute correction owed to the +PP wouldn't matter much for many of us. I was wrong there, yes. My concerns were for not getting over 1', not for being partly sunny, or raining. I didn't doubt the concept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Does that include the coastal on the Ukie or is that just the overrunning piece? That's mostly overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 GFS is really starting to back me up. I still think cold is gonna win out more heavily than depitcted! Boston harbor sitting at a warm 31 F (They've had cancel the commuter boat from hull/hingham as well as use ice cutters to help them out) A bit further out is still sitting at around 40, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Hey all, tough details to pin down. Been following on the sidelines. Intrigued by the potential for more coastal development Monday, as hinted by 12z GFS. If you compare 12z vs. 0z GFS from last night, the piece of vorticity that spawns this low is significantly stronger. Not sure how much more potential there is to dig with this, as none of the models or ensembles have anything dramatically different. Nonetheless, the responsible energy is still way out over the Pacific, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the depiction for Monday's coastal change significantly in the next 24 hours (as was dramatically the case the previous 2 weekends): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 GGEM is south of 00z too...it started on the northern envelope of guidance so it is still north of GFS/Euro, etc...but ticked south of the 00z run. Looks a lot better for at least the pike region. We like the 12z GGEM. To say the least. I do think its too robust up here though. The 12z GFS actually looks about more of what I'm thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 With the amount of cold/low level cold in place, do we see similar issue with ip/fz like we saw Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Harv never bought those north trends for a moment. It really never seemed to impact the Pike or north region...even yesterday when everyone was freaking out about the north trends. It seemed it had the most effect in CT/RI/SEMA... impact wise, this has always looked good for your area and especially the northern half of Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Does that include the coastal on the Ukie or is that just the overrunning piece? Goes out to 72 hrs, 12z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 We like the 12z GGEM. To say the least. I do think its too robust up here though. The 12z GFS actually looks about more of what I'm thinking. cmc_total_precip_neng_21.png Some do, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 We like the 12z GGEM. To say the least. I do think its too robust up here though. The 12z GFS actually looks about more of what I'm thinking. cmc_total_precip_neng_21.png I'd much rather bring that QPF further south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 We like the 12z GGEM. To say the least. I do think its too robust up here though. The 12z GFS actually looks about more of what I'm thinking. cmc_total_precip_neng_21.png that looks to be ~6-8" for my hood depending on ratios. weak sauce. more please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 that looks to be ~6-8" for my hood depending on ratios. weak sauce. more please GGEM is not good that good as far as higher totals, We will be on the fence here anyways, 12z GEFS looked ok though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Northern outliers coming south, southern outliers coming north ... goalposts are narrowing. Mass pike to VT/NH border seems the place to be I'd say north of the VT/NH borders too...maybe up to Dendrite. Especially S.VT. Those towns over 1,500ft in southern Vermont are going to clean up, especially the eastern slopes. That's my best guess for a jackpot right now...near like Mt Snow and Stratton where the terrain is just elevated in general with like 2,000ft+ inhabited spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 GGEM is not good that good as far as higher totals, We will be on the fence here anyways What are you thinking for your neck of the woods? I'm trying to figure out why it would be so much less on the models down into southern Maine... is it the dry arctic air CAD wedge that dries it up or something? I'd assume WAA over the cold would almost be more pronounced out your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 What are you thinking for your neck of the woods? I'm trying to figure out why it would be so much less on the models down into southern Maine... is it the dry arctic air CAD wedge that dries it up or something? I'd assume WAA over the cold would almost be more pronounced out your way.I think that's what it is. That cold, dry air nosing in at the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 MEX snow numbers for BOS: Saturday: 1 Sunday: 6 Monday: 6 Tuesday: 8 Wednesday:0 Thursday: 4 Have I moved to NNE? Or maybe les country? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 MEX snow numbers for BOS: Saturday: 1 Sunday: 6 Monday: 6 Tuesday: 8 Wednesday:0 Thursday: 4 Have I moved to NNE? Or maybe les country? thats sick and those have been dead nuts, whats it show for orh bdl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 What are you thinking for your neck of the woods? I'm trying to figure out why it would be so much less on the models down into southern Maine... is it the dry arctic air CAD wedge that dries it up or something? I'd assume WAA over the cold would almost be more pronounced out your way. The overrunning slants southward on the eastern half of New England, and the coastal only pushes stuff so far north once it gets going. I don't think Maine gets shut out in the least, though. But that's what I can see re: why things look a little drier there on some guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 What are you thinking for your neck of the woods? I'm trying to figure out why it would be so much less on the models down into southern Maine... is it the dry arctic air CAD wedge that dries it up or something? I'd assume WAA over the cold would almost be more pronounced out your way. I think that's what it is. That cold, dry air nosing in at the low levels. Right now, I would be leaning 8-10" range, I'm thinking this is the case that has been mentioned above with the colder air as the precip gets squeezed to the east instead of moving more north, A better developed low would help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 MEX snow numbers for BOS: Saturday: 1 Sunday: 6 Monday: 6 Tuesday: 8 Wednesday:0 Thursday: 4 Have I moved to NNE? Or maybe les country? Good lord. Anyway, I think at this point I can say thankfully, I'm going to be wrong on my thoughts of this going way north. Glad we have a high that it seems can stand up to the pressure of the north trend unlike so many before it Here's my first call through 7 PM Sunday night, basically only the overrunning snows. Went a bit north of model consensus after discarding the NAM as I do think we'll see a little bit of a tick north and also tightened up the area of the best precip by a bit compared to model projections as that will usually happen as we get closer, but overall pretty close to the consensus forecast from non NAM guidance. Might be mixing issues on the outer cape which would cut down totals out there from the 3-5" I have forecast but otherwise I like this for now. Will make a final map that includes the coastal/additional overrunning tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 MEX snow numbers for BOS: Saturday: 1 Sunday: 6 Monday: 6 Tuesday: 8 Wednesday:0 Thursday: 4 Have I moved to NNE? Or maybe les country? lol you got me looking at ours...impressive stuff across all of New England. For MPV...three 8's in a 5 day period is nice. Saturday...1 Sunday...8 Monday...8 Tuesday...2 Wednesday...0 Thursday...8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 MEX snow numbers for BOS: Saturday: 1 Sunday: 6 Monday: 6 Tuesday: 8 Wednesday:0 Thursday: 4 Have I moved to NNE? Or maybe les country? Just time travel to 1717 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Tim Kelly at NECN not buying the GFS. He's talking rain even up to Fenway Park on Sunday night, Monday. His map showed the 6 inch line up to the Boston area for 3-day total. He must be riding the NAM, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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