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Damage In Tolland

Long duration overrunning to coastal disco 02/07-02/09

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BOX starts us off..and yes we do need more

 

 



* PERIODS OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW SAT-SUN
* A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT-TUE

YES...MORE SNOW IS ON THE WAY. A LONG DURATION SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR
SAT-TUE...AND IT COULD REALLY PILE UP. AS IF WE NEED MORE!

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. ONE WILL DO SO ON
SATURDAY AND YET ANOTHER ONE ON SUNDAY...BOTH ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS
OF SNOW. CURRENT SNOWFALL PREDICTION IS FOR A 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL ON
SAT AND 2-4 INCHES ON SUNDAY.

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BOX starts us off

 

 

* PERIODS OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW SAT-SUN

* A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT-TUE

YES...MORE SNOW IS ON THE WAY. A LONG DURATION SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR

SAT-TUE...AND IT COULD REALLY PILE UP. AS IF WE NEED MORE!

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS

SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. ONE WILL DO SO ON

SATURDAY AND YET ANOTHER ONE ON SUNDAY...BOTH ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS

OF SNOW. CURRENT SNOWFALL PREDICTION IS FOR A 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL ON

SAT AND 2-4 INCHES ON SUNDAY.

 

I wouldn't exactly say that 3-6 is really piling up, especially over 2 days.  Nice amounts, but I don't think "piling up" is a good descriptive for up to 6".

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The rest of the BOX disco.

 

ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EAST

COAST MON-TUE. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THIS FEATURE SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
ARCTIC FRONT SITUATED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND THE DETERMINISTIC
RUNS SHOW THE LOW CLOSE ENOUGH FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD SHOWS A
WIDE PLACEMENT OF LOW POSITIONS. THE TIME PERIOD OF HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY. STILL...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THE DOMINANT P-TYPE FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE RAIN-SNOW LINE TO MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPE/SE
MASS LATE MONDAY...SO WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS IN THE DAYS TO
COME. A LOT CAN CHANGE AS THIS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IS OVER THE
PACIFIC OCEAN AND IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA UNTIL
EARLY SATURDAY...AT WHICH TIME IT WILL BE BETTER SAMPLED.

DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A FOOT OR
MORE OF SNOW PILING UP OVER THE PERIOD SAT-TUE. WHILE POSSIBLE...ALL
WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAY
TUNED.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE TUE-WED. THIS
HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN WED NIGHT-
THU...SENDING ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW POSSIBLE MID WEEK. ARCTIC COLD IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPS DIVING TO BELOW -20C BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

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Morning AFD from GYX mentioned the possibility of a 3-day snow event producing 3" (that's "inches", not a typo), for a different take on the old water torture.  Wisely, the PM crew omitted mention of accum, until closer to the event(s).

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Maybe the NAM is on to something.....with continued trends north....maybe rain to the NH border by go-time? 

 

 

Not sure there is enough time...the amount it went north was like 20 miles.

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Not sure there is enough time...the amount it went north was like 20 miles.

Will ,do you think that the GFS is onto something with the amount of shadowing that it is showing over the Connecticut River Valley?

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Sounds like model noise

 

North ticks are real IMHO...all guidance is doing it, not just a couple random runs. But the big question is whether that continues going forward or if we level off/sag back south a bit.

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That s/w east of Hudson Bay isn't digging as much so the best confluence bumps a bit north. That sfc high still noses in quite well, but it doesn't have the same punch it did in earlier runs.

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I wouldn't mind giving up on the overunning if it means a better coastal Though.

 

Well you don't want the overrunning too far north, because then the boundary is north which means so will the coastal low.

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No it doesn't. It may mean the best snows may be north though

And it most likely implies liquid down here..since the boundary will be further north. Not expecting much at this point, given today's runs.

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And it most likely implies liquid down here..since the boundary will be further north. Not expecting much at this point, given today's runs.

This was my fear from the beginning after Monday's debacle. I'll tell you I'm not a met but the lack of a -NAO is screwing with us S. Coast and NYC peeps IMHO.

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