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Long duration overrunning to coastal disco 02/07-02/09


Damage In Tolland

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I'll be brutally honest with you, and some will get aggravated with me...fine. I'm afraid of this turning into like a 6" event drawn out over like 3-4 days. That is worst case imby, imho. We are only a shift or two from that.

 

Over the long duration this is not really even a significant event to stick a warning out for

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I'll be brutally honest with you, and some will get aggravated with me...fine. I'm afraid of this turning into like a 6" event drawn out over like 3-4 days. That is worst case imby, imho. We are only a shift or two from that.

I'm glad you put the disclaimer, but if that's the worst case scenario...we don't have anything to complain about.

That's what I'm thinking happens. Maybe 6-12" regionwide over 60 hours. May not even be enough to close the schools at this point with so many districts already deep into their snow day counts.

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I'll be brutally honest with you, and some will get aggravated with me...fine. I'm afraid of this turning into like a 6" event drawn out over like 3-4 days. That is worst case imby, imho. We are only a shift or two from that.

Exactly, I'm already at that point. And Any more ticks and I see rain with the coastal. Rain? Wtf...

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I'm glad you put the disclaimer, but if that's the worst case scenario...we don't have anything to complain about.

That's what I'm thinking happens. Maybe 6-12" regionwide over 60 hours. May not even be enough to close the schools at this point with so many districts already deep into their snow day counts.

Well, that would be a fraud event, imo.....12 not so much, no.
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I'll be brutally honest with you, and some will get aggravated with me...fine. I'm afraid of this turning into like a 6" event drawn out over like 3-4 days. That is worst case imby, imho. We are only a shift or two from that.

 

Hey at least you are honest about it.

 

I say take the refreshers as they come, already a good snowpack in place, just enjoy having flakes fall from the sky at this point.

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The boundary gets established on Saturday...so we really aren't that far from go time on that aspect of it...now we can still see shifts as to just how elastic that boundary becomes on Sunday, but I'm not expecting 100-200 mile trends because we're not that far out from the first phase which is having that arctic high nose down and establish the boundary...that happens about 48h from now.

 

The difference between the NAM and all other guidance right now is it essentially has the flattest flow in the middle of the country associated with the main shortwave for Sunday night and Monday...the global models all buckle the flow a bit on the lee side of the Rockies.

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I don't think they could stick a warning out for it. In SNE it's 6 inches in 12 hours or 8 in 24, and I think NW CT/W MA (ALY's zones) it's 7 and 9.

 

It would be considered an advisory event unless you get the coastal to crank or it just ends up a long term over running event

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Hey at least you are honest about it.

 

I say take the refreshers as they come, already a good snowpack in place, just enjoy having flakes fall from the sky at this point.

All kidding aside, I won't cludder the thread. I know we were kidding around this pm, but I keep any grumbling to the banter. I know folks get pissed, but I want to see this season go to the moon a.d realize its potential. I've had a year fron hell, and this winter has been a wonderful diversion.
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I think we should look at the set up.  It is going to be a decent event for a lot of people.  little waves bumping into a strong high and a serious temperature boundary can produce a lot of snow.  Look at the fronto band from this morning.  I don't think this is 3 days of periods of snow showers and 6" that sublimates by Tuesday morning.  We don't need a strong low pressure to get a 6-12 hour period of 6-12 inches of snow.   I think the models are already showing pretty high qpf and I think those numbers will go up as we get closer.  For me the biggest problem might be a coastal the develops early and strong, and goes east, stealing the moisture.

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Models doing that thing where they over-trend in the 48-72 hour time frame, only to correct themselves a touch back towards the original idea?  You know what I mean... like one of these runs goes up to Montreal, but then settles back down into CNE at go time.

 

Regardless of what guidance has, The overrunning stuff IMO is more CNE and NNE. The coastal low is what I am unsure of. This whole setup is convoluted.

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I'm sure this has already been discussed but I've been at work all day, the spread is pretty remarkable on the EC ensembles for Monday and Tuesday with only a few members out of 51 taking the SLP to the benchmark.

 

To those who have wxbell, the new graphic for the Euro Ensembles to see every single ensemble member 1-51 with MSLP, precip, and 0°, 32°, 35° contour is a nice update. Available east and west graphics.

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Peeps gotta get a grip. Did everyone ignore Wills post about the high pressing? Who cares what the gefs show. They re awful. Go with the idea everything comes back south over the next 24 hours

I don't disagree with you, the trend appears over last 2 weeks with models showing a northern trend, and fall back with 24-36hrs of the event. I guess we will have to wait and see

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