40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The rhetoric still gets a little overwhelming though....the complaining could be toned down in here and we could stick to the meteorology...we don't need every other post as "meh". Same goes for "yay!!"...these threads should be more about the meteorology. Thank you Complaining about the complaining exacerbates the issue. PM a mod, or take it to banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 SUN NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE MOST ROBUST JET IMPULSE AND INDUCE A MODEST TOSTRONG FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE OH VLY SUNDAY. THIS LOW THEN TRACKSEASTWARD AND INTENSIFIES AS IT PASSES NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK MONNIGHT. THIS IS A SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TREND FROM LAST NIGHT/S RUNSWHERE SURFACE LOW TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.1035 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC PROVIDES MOIST POLAR MARITIMEINFLOW INTO NEW ENGLAND...YIELDING MODEST ONSHORE WIND ANOMALIES/COLD CONVEYOR BELT -CCB/ AT 925 AND 850. THIS MODEST TO STRONGATLANTIC INFLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING/POSSIBLY DRIFTING/ SNOW ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF EASTERN MA.LOW RISK THAT RAIN/SNOW LINE MAY CREEP ONSHORE INTO THE SOUTHCOAST. ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO GET THAT SPECIFIC AT THIS TIME RANGE.VERY SURPRISING THE LACK OF SPREAD HERE GIVEN FORECAST TIME IS STILL72+ HRS AWAY. REGARDING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL...MODEL CONSENSUS FROMTHE 00Z UKMET/GFS/ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES /EPS/ HAS A LARGE SWATH OF4-8" SUN NGT INTO EARLY TUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HEAVIESTAMOUNTS ARE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CT-RI NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NHBORDER. THE UKMET IS FARTHEST SOUTH WITH AXIS ALONG MA PIKE SOUTHWARDINTO CT-RI. EPS IS FARTHEST NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NH. STILL TOO EARLYTO FOCUS SPECIFICS BUT NEVERTHELESS LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT HASTHE POTENTIAL FOR STORM TOTALS OF 6-12" FROM SAT NIGHT INTO EARLYTUE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Congrats BOS on the UKMET, lol. That would be fun for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Wow, I'm not complaining at all, A comment was made to GYX's take as being underwhelming for this event, And over the long period i don't see where they should honk it up, Am i being wrong here?It sounded like you guys were just shrugging it off in a meh fashion. No biggie. Mahk's HPC fetish is going to make him bald soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Congrats BOS on the UKMET, lol. That would be fun for the city. ukmet_tprecip_neng_121.png I think Boston and EMA really does well in this setup and points east get some spillover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 It's a 6-12 event south of the pike from south to north..and if the south trends continue today ..you can shift that south Ensembles are pretty similar...not sure why you are saying they aren't. They still give you snow...but they are a bit north of yesterday. They have the max snow from the pike to about dendrite...prob like a 4-8 event for you. If I'm reading Kevin's post correctly, I think he is calling for about 6" south of the pike and 12" north of there, depending on the trend today (north or south). I still don't see how adding 6" of snow is a bad thing. I'll take any and all snow that adds to my bottom line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I think Boston and EMA really does well in this setup and points east get some spillover. I can see Ray getting 14-16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Congrats BOS on the UKMET, lol. That would be fun for the city. ukmet_tprecip_neng_121.png lol...I like the low qpf finger up through CT. It's like an island of low qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 This next stretch is absolutely fascinating to me - snow falling in the background over a period of days. Dare I say, snow falling is almost becoming a way of life? The immediate impact will be low, but the challenge of where to put it will still be a problem for municipalities. These last couple of weeks feel like the closest taste to what it is like to live in a true arctic location. All we need is to go weeks without the sun rising. Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 after reading Ryan's post, I'm wondering if I was a little bit too aggressive with my snowfall amounts.I did hear another local met go with like 6 to 10 for Northern Connecticut. only getting a few inches of snow south of the pike would be disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Congrats BOS on the UKMET, lol. That would be fun for the city. ukmet_tprecip_neng_121.png That is an inside of rt 128 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 FWIW 9Z SREF keep the heaviest stuff with the first batch north of MA except for NE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 one post says this is ticking north, another says south. is there any real consensus amongst the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Not sure I buy the Ukie QPF like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 i don't get the whole competition angle but whatever. Seems like a east moist inflow event with the EMA coast getting it pretty good as well as the Berks and east slopes, some shadowing appears to be in store too as often happens when the flow is set up in the predicted fashion. I think the bigger societal impact might be the areas of frdz at 15-20 degrees when lift is minimal. Good idea for you and yours to keep an eye on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 If I'm reading Kevin's post correctly, I think he is calling for about 6" south of the pike and 12" north of there, depending on the trend today (north or south). I still don't see how adding 6" of snow is a bad thing. I'll take any and all snow that adds to my bottom line. Well I meant 6 in S Ct with amounts to a foot by the time you hit pike. So something like 9-10 for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 FWIW 9Z SREF keep the heaviest stuff with the first batch north of MA except for NE MA They did come south a bit from 3z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 yes there has been a pretty consistent shadowing signal especially in the Connecticut River Valley. whatever range we end up being in I could see us being in the lower end of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 i don't get the whole competition angle but whatever. Seems like a east moist inflow event with the EMA coast getting it pretty good as well as the Berks and east slopes, some shadowing appears to be in store too as often happens when the flow is set up in the predicted fashion. I think the bigger societal impact might be the areas of frdz at 15-20 degrees when lift is minimal. Good idea for you and yours to keep an eye on that. FRDZ is the worst... If it is on snow does it lessen the impact for roads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 There definitely could be a bit of orgraphic enhancement and some mesoscale convergence enhancement playing a bigger role in this system than usual due to the lack of big time mid-level forcing. So some other variables end up getting more weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Not sure I buy the Ukie QPF like that. Yea, that is the only model taking on a CJ configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 SUN NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TRAILING SHORT WAVE WILL BE THE MOST ROBUST JET IMPULSE AND INDUCE A MODEST TO STRONG FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE OH VLY SUNDAY. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS EASTWARD AND INTENSIFIES AS IT PASSES NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK MON NIGHT. THIS IS A SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TREND FROM LAST NIGHT/S RUNS WHERE SURFACE LOW TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. 1035 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC PROVIDES MOIST POLAR MARITIME INFLOW INTO NEW ENGLAND...YIELDING MODEST ONSHORE WIND ANOMALIES /COLD CONVEYOR BELT -CCB/ AT 925 AND 850. THIS MODEST TO STRONG ATLANTIC INFLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING /POSSIBLY DRIFTING/ SNOW ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF EASTERN MA. LOW RISK THAT RAIN/SNOW LINE MAY CREEP ONSHORE INTO THE SOUTH COAST. ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO GET THAT SPECIFIC AT THIS TIME RANGE. VERY SURPRISING THE LACK OF SPREAD HERE GIVEN FORECAST TIME IS STILL 72+ HRS AWAY. REGARDING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL...MODEL CONSENSUS FROM THE 00Z UKMET/GFS/ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES /EPS/ HAS A LARGE SWATH OF 4-8" SUN NGT INTO EARLY TUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CT-RI NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. THE UKMET IS FARTHEST SOUTH WITH AXIS ALONG MA PIKE SOUTHWARD INTO CT-RI. EPS IS FARTHEST NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NH. STILL TOO EARLY TO FOCUS SPECIFICS BUT NEVERTHELESS LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM TOTALS OF 6-12" FROM SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. Well there you go. Nice write up by BOX as to where we stand today/at the moment. Lets see where the 12z suite goes from here. No more fighting about getting shut out or not please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 There definitely could be a bit of orgraphic enhancement and some mesoscale convergence enhancement playing a bigger role in this system than usual due to the lack of big time mid-level forcing. So some other variables end up getting more weight. Summarized in two of Scooters favorite words, Not Boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Bingo. I mentioned the bolded twice the last few days...you still have to put it somewhere, and when you have what we have on the ground, this becomes challenging to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Smaller version of March 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Summarized in two of Scooters favorite words, Not Boring Unless you're just outside of the mesoscale convergence Coastal front location will be crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Smaller version of March 2013 Absolutely nothing like that event. We definitely do not have a big firehose coming off the Atlantic from 300mb downward. Only similarity is we might get snowflakes from each event and that both lacked a huge mid-level forcing band or bands. But It is like comparing a tropical wave to a cat 4. Almost no resemblance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Unless you're just outside of the mesoscale convergence Coastal front location will be crucial. It's going to depend on if any weak waves form. It may get pushed back to near 128 on Monday and then go back SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I mentioned the bolded twice the last few days...you still have to put it somewhere, and when you have what we have on the ground, this becomes challenging to say the least. The DPW's need to stay on top of snow removal, not just pushing it back. Lots of crowded places to our north have way more snow on the ground and they manage just fine. When I think of some experiences I've had in places like Quebec it kind of makes the current pack seem small. I think people should focus on the different periods of snow instead of the total amount by next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Absolutely nothing like that event. We definitely do not have a big firehose coming off the Atlantic from 300mb downward. Only similarity is we might get snowflakes from each event and that both lacked a huge mid-level forcing band or bands. But It is like comparing a tropical wave to a cat 4. Almost no resemblance. Umm I meant with the mEsocale nuances, shadowing etc. reminds me of that somrwhat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.