HullMA Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I am by no means a met. I was an an avid reader/sometimes poster on easternuswx years ago.Over the years i have noticed when there is some serious cold entrenched the models just dont grasp it quite like they should.For me this is no different. I really dont think the models have a solid hold on this cold air. During the last storm i felt the cold was under-forecasted as well which it certainly was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Man, RGEM gives e MA the f#ck you, btwn waa and coastal. Hope that is wrong. I don't think its out far enough from here to you on that yet, And it has not been great by any means as some may have you think, Its been ok if you blend it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I am by no means a met. I was an an avid reader/sometimes poster on easternuswx years ago. Over the years i have noticed when there is some serious cold entrenched the models just dont grasp it quite like they should. For me this is no different. I really dont think the models have a solid hold on this cold air. During the last storm i felt the cold was under-forecasted as well which it certainly was. Absolutely. Everybody was jabbering and jabbing in the last storm for Taint to go at Least to the pike. And I here in Northern Rhode Island sleeted for 45 minutes Max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Man, RGEM gives e MA the f#ck you, btwn waa and coastal. Hope that is wrong. It only goes out to 12z Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Absolutely. Everybody was jabbering and jabbing in the last storm for Taint to go at Least to the pike. And I here in Northern Rhode Island sleeted for 45 minutes Max. I spent a lot of winters on the boundary line(my youth). After this recent pattern change It feels like new hampshire has come to the south shore of boston. I say this cause i spent the last 2 winters in dover NH. New england up into canada is virtually one big ice cube. I could see the blocking being moderately underforecasted. Especially in this short-term timeframe! Edit: GFS looks stellar out to 51. Great hit for majority of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 12z GFS is also ticking south again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Not as much up here on the over running but a lot better with the coastal low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Wow, SNE gets bombed by the coastal/OH Valley runner/redeveloper (whatever you want to call it)...that's like 12-18" for many once you add in the overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Some weenie jacks in the berks and SE MA and SW VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 GFS is good for Sunday/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 might have to bump up my forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 GFS is good for Sunday/Monday.Well hello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 It only goes out to 12z Sunday... That is what happens when one tries to multitask working and weenieing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 GFS for Eastern MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Well every model thus far at 12z has ticked south...including the NAM even if it is jackpotting YUL. That's probably a good sign for this arctic boundary holding down the fort for this event...still a lot of complex evolution to iron out though, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Well every model thus far at 12z has ticked south...including the NAM even if it is jackpotting YUL. That's probably a good sign for this arctic boundary holding down the fort for this event...still a lot of complex evolution to iron out though, I could see areas south of the Pike struggling on the Sat/Sun deal but really cashing in on Monday? A stronger wave to help developing a strong band of frontogenesis along the front could really be prolific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 RGEM with a nice 4-8 Sat/sun and then the big dog. We haven't seen the last of the south trend yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I would certainly take the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Weenie snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I would certainly take the GFS. Could use another tick south down here, but the 12z trend was a good one for SNE. It looks like the GFS still changes the south coast over a bit sleet/rain near the height of the coastal, but barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I could see areas south of the Pike struggling on the Sat/Sun deal but really cashing in on Monday? A stronger wave to help developing a strong band of frontogenesis along the front could really be prolific. I could see Monday trending more robust with precip as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 RGEM with a nice 4-8 Sat/sun and then the big dog. We haven't seen the last of the south trend yet. But that would not surprise me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 gfs is very impressive hope the rest of the 12 models are that good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 To quote Suzyn Waldman... Oh my goodness. Goodness gracious. GFS is ridiculous with the precip. Remember the days when it was on the lower end usually? Not sure if anyone has done any anecdotal analysis since the upgrade but this run is pretty eye opening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I'm obliterated on the GFS. Bring it mama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 But that would not surprise meTheres been a couple of us . You, me, Will, that were just waiting for models to sniff the high pressing. Even posted yesterday it would start at 00z. Let's see how the rest of the day goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Too early to say definitively, but this chain of events is exactly how the last two systems played out in terms of model fluctuations. Patter evolution / setup is obviously different...but the trends are quite similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The kinematics are interesting for this system. The arctic high wedging in from the N is going to provide a fairly steep elevated frontal slope, such that comparatively less jet max(es) ridging over top/near-by that can mechanically induce restoring underneath in that 800-600mb depth, are going to be tipping said restoring flows rather upright. Then as each right exit relays through the left entrance associated with individual speed maxes ... the resulting q-v forcing/UVM will be angled rather steeply, maximizing moisture condensates. The models have what they have as far as QPF, but can we question the accuracy of them when these particulars are notable; those being up-tier efficiency in production relative to overall differentials. The S/W(s)/overall interval of amplitude is not eye-poppingly intense by any means, but happens to time rather ideally with artic +PP passing N of the area from later tomorrow through Tuesday. The gist: Long duration ideal overrunning taps into steeper than normal elevated frontal slopes .... to maximize condensation in snow growth regions of the ambiant sounding. This would actually be an ideal ice storm scenario but the discussed frontal slopes being so steep (...as also expressed by compressed horizontal thickness packing) squeezes p-type bands into narrow concerns. There's likely to be a narrow ice belt - where where where. Probably somewhere NCY - southern RI would be my guess. Even with higher res models that may espouse greater accuracy in BL events ... could see the boundary being correctable S given to +PP N and ageostrophic forcing. So in a nut shell ... my analysis is just an incredible wintery appeal for couple three days. Not enough that for some, an unbearable snow pack while for others, surpassing dreams already paints the landscape ... we're talking blue tinted dawns and dusks book-ending daily scenes out of a Barrow Alaskan web-cam en route! One thing I am still concerned about is the exact potency (which is never actually measurable. ha) gets sampled wrt to whatever it is that ultimately relays off the Pacific onto land out west. Take any run of the NAM; while not questioning the veracity of the model depictions, there is something to be said about the 8 to 10 jetlettes identifiably penetrating the transiently flattened western N/A +PNA ridge. That vorticity shrapnel makes it real hard to know more coherently what is going to happen ultimately over the upper MA and NE regions. If more rather than less comes in ... this upcoming long duration event ends with more of a crescendo spin up/nor'easter... if not, it probably wanes out to nothingness. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 12z GFS is also ticking south again... If you look at the last 24 hours of GFS runs, the op seemed to max out it's north nudge and get the South Trend™ going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 RGEM with a nice 4-8 Sat/sun and then the big dog. We haven't seen the last of the south trend yet. You don't even need to go to Met school. Straight to a tenured professorship for you sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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