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V Day II obs


RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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What in the world is with CT....I swear, its like Kevin just gave ma nature an epic sales pitch a few years back, and politiced his way to an annual, unabated orgi between the months of December and Mar-...eh, February.

Jesus.

lol tell me about it! i moved out of bristol ct at just the wrong time in 2004.....since then theyve had 3 storms 2 ft plus, too many 8 to 15 inchers to count and many of these events had 3 to 5 inch hr rates if even just for an hour or two!!! i have had a fraction of that in spfd/noho. ct and nyc metro just off the chain past ten to fifteen years!!
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
AS OF 9 AM...A BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO
6 INCHES PER HOUR HAS OVERSPREAD COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...COLLOCATED WITH AN INTENSE FRONTOGENETIC BAND LIFTING
NORTH FROM CENTRAL NJ AND OFF THE OCEAN. REPORTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES
IN 30 MINUTES HAVE BEEN COMING INTO THE OFFICE UNDER THIS BAND. IN
ADDITION...WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST...RESULTING IN NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

THIS HEAVY SNOW BAND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT THROUGH 11
AM...COMBINED WITH 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS...WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. AROUND 1 FT OF SNOW LIKELY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THIS BAND.

AT THE SAME TIME...WATCHING TRANSITION LINE TO SLEET AND RAIN
CREEPING UP THE COAST...CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF LI/NYC. THIS
SHOULD START WORKING INTO THE SHORELINE OF LI/NYC BY AROUND 9
AM...AND THEN GRADUALLY PROGRESSING NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE
MID TO LATE MORNING. CHANGEOVER LINE WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT TRIES TO
PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
FRONTOGENETIC BAND IS NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.

OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS DRY SLOT WORKING NORTH THROUGH THE
DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD WORK INTO
LI/NYC AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE NJ BY AROUND MIDDAY...AND THEN
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY
LIGHT SHOWERY PRECIP EXPECTED UNDER THIS DRY SLOT FOR REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON...UNTIL DEFORMATION BANDING/INSTABILITY PRECIP
STARTS WORKING IN FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE
EVENING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1019 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. DRY FRIGID WEATHER PREVAILS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN CHANGING OVER TO RAIN DURING TUESDAY. DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK AND MATCHING UP WITH TRENDS
FROM CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THUS NO
MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. HERE ARE SOME OF THE
FORECAST CHALLENGES...

* MESOSCALE BANDING...HEAVY SNOW BAND LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CT/RI
AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA AT 10 AM. OBS AND SURFACE REPORTS
INDICATE THIS BAND PRODUCED HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3" ACROSS
LONG ISLAND/NYC AND NORTHEAST NJ DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE COOLING CLOUD TOPS OCCURRING
OVER THE NORTHEAST. NEW 12Z NAM AND 03Z SREF LIFT THIS BAND
NORTH WITH SIMILAR INTENSITY INTO CT/RI AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MA LATER THIS MORNING...THEN INTO CENTRAL MA INCLUDING GREATER
BOSTON AREA MIDDAY-ISH. THE BAND SHOULD REACH THE MA/NH BORDER
AROUND 21Z. SOME INSTABILITY ABOVE THIS BAND WILL SUPPORT HOURLY
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3" ALONG WITH A LOW RISK OF THUNDERSNOW.

* PTYPE...12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM OKX SHOWS NICE DEEP
ISOTHERMAL LAYER SUPPORTING HEAVY SNOW SIGNATURE. 12Z CHH
SOUNDING REVEALING WARM MARITIME LAYER THRU 3KFT...SUB FREEZING
WET BULB TEMPS THRU MOST OF THE COLUMN SUGGEST ONCE HEAVY PRECIP
ARRIVES IT MAY ERODE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER VIA DIABATIC
COOLING FROM MELTING PRECIP. THUS RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA MAY
BRIEFLY FLIP BACK TO SNOW ONCE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES. CURRENT
SNOWFALL FORECAST CAPTURES THIS WELL. OTHER FEATURE IMPACTING
PTYPE WILL BE LOCATION AND TRACK OF COASTAL FRONT...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY IN THE BOSTON AREA WITH LOGAN AT 34F. MEANWHILE BVY AT
24 AND BED 21! PRES FALL CENTER ALONG THE NJ COAST WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE COASTAL FRONT FROM MOVING TOO FAR WEST...SAY ROUTE 128.
THUS SHARP SNOW GRADIENT FOR THE CITY OF BOSTON FROM LOGAN TO
BROOKLINE/WEST ROXBURY. NEW 12Z NAM SUGGEST SLEET/SNOW LINE
SHOULD GET CLOSE TO CT/MA/RI BORDER AROUND 18Z. FARTHER EAST LOW
LEVEL WARMING SHOULD BRING THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TO THE RT128
CORRIDOR BY 18Z. ALL OF SOUTHEAST MA SHOULD BE ALL RAIN BY 18Z
INCLUDING RI...EXCEPT POSSIBLY NORTHERN/NORTHWEST RI. ALL OF
THIS CAPTURE FAIRLY WELL BY PREVIOUS FORECAST SO NOT EXPECTING
WHOLESALE CHANGES IN ANY OF OUR PRODUCTS INCLUDING SNOWFALL
GRAPHICS.

* HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT...NEW 12Z NAM BRINGS A SLUG OF HEAVY
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS INCLUDING THE SOUTH COAST OF MA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...IMPACTING THE LATE DAY COMMUTE ACROSS THIS
AREA ESPECIALLY THE URBAN AREAS OF FALL RIVER AND NEW BEDFORD.

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Just ridiculous rates here. Wish I could measure but I'm in the office. Probably around 6 inches?

Just over 8". Looks like a repeat of an hour ago is here again......beyond words.  Dual Pol shows the sleet continuing to mix out for now. Hopefully we just dry slot and then get the monster pivot tonight.

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Ooooh what you guys have to look forward to  :snowing:

 

It is absolutely pounding here now, easily 2+"/hr.  Took me two hours to go 12 miles round trip to try to take the train to work but I couldn't get into the parking lot because of all the cars stuck that tried to get out when they got off the train.  Literally 20 or more people just sitting there stuck in the middle of the street.

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Just over 8". Looks like a repeat of an hour ago is here again......beyond words.  Dual Pol shows the sleet continuing to mix out for now. Hopefully we just dry slot and then get the monster pivot tonight.

 

Wow! That is nuts 8" already! We aren't so lucky up here we had a really heavy 20 minutes still probably only around 3.5 from that. Winds just started picking up and snow fluctuates from really heavy to then moderate...not complaining though :)

 

Crap keep forgetting locations aren't showing.

 

I am just north of New Haven in Ansonia.

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