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The Big One - Observation


JoshM

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I've got 5" of snow with a raging, wind-driven 21-degree sleetstorm ongoing.

 

4+ inches with sleet now.

 

we mixed with sleet/zr here for the last 10 mins.

 

Yeah, I just went out for a Jeb walk.  I picked a bad time.  Saw stuff bouncing off my jacket and then a ton of the stuff began to fall.  I was walking into the wind and it hurt as it bounced off my face.  Decided to walk backwards for a while before returning home.  Snowflakes are mixing back in now.  Hope the trend back to snow will commence.

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Where is the warm layer at, anyways?  925 mb, 850 mb, and 700 mb all look safely below freezing on the SPC mesoanalysis page.  I'm guessing somewhere around 750-800 mb?

 

EDIT: The RAP sounding looks alright.  Silly RAP.  No warm nose around 750-800 mb, though...  Looks like maybe one around 825 mb, though the RAP verbatim would be alright (it's obviously wrong).

 

RAP_255_2014021223_F01_36.0000N_80.0000W

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We can still put all our chips into the deformation band tomorrow. The RAP looks sick as does the RGEM and the Euro. I'm disappointed how many people are changing over to sleet. Then again, the warm nose always overperforms, doesn't it? If the deformation band tomorrow hammers and we get a continued raging sleet storm tonight, we can still make 10". :weenie:

I guess the good thing about a raging sleet storm is that should be better for power outages than heavy, wet snow especially with all the wind we're getting.

We need some fresh powder on this crust tomorrow. The 850 low is so broad last time I checked and still back in GA. Thinking by sunrise we should all be on northwest side. Hopefully that deform band sets up shop like it's suppose to and puts the hammer down for a few hours. Need to start tracking the 850 low progression. I'm sure it will crawl all night.

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Where is the warm layer at, anyways?  925 mb, 850 mb, and 700 mb all look safely below freezing on the SPC mesoanalysis page.  I'm guessing somewhere around 750-800 mb?

 

EDIT: The RAP sounding looks alright.  Silly RAP.  No warm nose around 750-800 mb, though...

 

RAP_255_2014021223_F01_36.0000N_80.0000W

That's what the sounding from the other thread showed. That's probably why people missed the warm nose. It wouldn't be visible at 850 or 925.
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Watching burns tell us the slp is moving between Albany and savannah nne......is this accurate based upon some of the expert analysis here and what are our chances for picking up an inch or 2 of snow based upon what's occurring to our west and southwest? I really hate to through in towel between Atl and aug (social circle).

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Sleet and freezing rain here.  A nice glaze is quickly building up.  on the tree’s.  It’s like walking on a glacier outside.

ditto.  it has iced up really fast in just what, 2.5 hours?  just announced on radio that basically entire county shut down.  govt, courts, schools.  not that anyone could get anywhere at this rate.  the tree limbs are sagging noticeably at this point.  seeing reports of snow moving from west ga east. maybe will get here at some point lol

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I’ve never seen it sleet this hard!  The CC radar has the snow line rapidly expanding throughout northern GA.  It has also started to make progress over the escarpment and into Oconee County.  I fully expect to switch back over to snow here within the hour.

 

i hope it expands here fast lol.  realized i have the radarscope app and it has the cc on it duh.  looks like the line is right around ne ga at the moment.  am guessing all that west of atl is now back to snow?

 

 

 

Finally...back to snow in Dahlonega GA.  Yahoo...

 

yahoo is right!! :thumbsup: hopefully it changes back to snow from zr here soon

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