EasternUSWX Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That's the worst case for I-95 and something they need to be a bit concerned about...snow to rain. That would be great for us but of course we all know what that is...18Z NAM. Surface temps still below freezing. Would probably be sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 There really are 3 distinct groups in this thread with different climo. Altoona state college ipt, the 81 area and York Lancaster. Not sure why no poconos posters here but sometimes wish people would specify statements by those regions. True central, 81, and lsv. What's good or bad for one is not true for others often. The Poconos are generally Carbon, Monroe, Pike and parts of Wayne Counties. Carbon and Monroe belong to Mount Holly and as such those posters are probably in the Philly threads. Pike and Wayne are in Binghamton's CWA and my be in yet another subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The numbers may be inflated, but isn't the general area of the heaviest snow based on model output generally in the correct area? Anyway, good moderate snow falling now albeit small flakes. Eyeballing perhaps a an eighth to quarter inch already. Temp down to 22 degrees. The Facebook model maps are the worst ****ing thing in weather right now. People think they are a real forecast. Just ask the NWS meteorologists. Everytime I see someone share one of those, I put the kibosh on either excitement or dismay. Didn't people learn a damn thing from the hysteria 10 days ago when some moron posted a Euro map as gospel and people thought Philly was going to get a major snowstorm today? And no, sometimes they are not right. Especially in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 LOL, I would pay for this to go OTS or be half rain on the 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The Facebook model maps are the worst ****ing thing in weather right now. People think they are a real forecast. Just ask the NWS meteorologists. Everytime I see someone share one of those, I put the kibosh on either excitement or dismay. Didn't people learn a damn thing from the hysteria 10 days ago when some moron posted a Euro map as gospel and people thought Philly was going to get a major snowstorm today? And no, sometimes they are not right. Especially in this pattern. Look around today, the usual suspects are doing it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Good moderate to almost heavy snow here now. The trees along the road in the background aren't even a quarter mile away. In fact they are barely a half a block away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It's really coming down - already about .5 and flakes are still fine. Radar looks good for maybe 1.5-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The Facebook model maps are the worst ****ing thing in weather right now. People think they are a real forecast. Just ask the NWS meteorologists. Everytime I see someone share one of those, I put the kibosh on either excitement or dismay. Didn't people learn a damn thing from the hysteria 10 days ago when some moron posted a Euro map as gospel and people thought Philly was going to get a major snowstorm today? And no, sometimes they are not right. Especially in this pattern. OK, gotcha, and I know that those numbers aren't a forecast, and I wasn't posting them to be such. I know better. Of course the general public, which has no clue how the weather works, doesn't. What I was pointing out was that it was kind of showing an I-95 event again. I wasn't even hinting at the accumulations themselves, other than to reference PSU's post on the "shrinking snow shield" during the past few years. Sucks that I kind of have to defend myself here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I read in the N** Metro forum that it was a 992 at the BM. Bad track, am I right? Not necessarily, it depends on how the low gets there. If the low is pretty well offshore and bombs out on it's way to the benchmark then yea, thats not gonna work out for central PA or the Sus Valley. But the low on the ensemble mean tracks similar to the Euro operational, staying tucked in to some degree albeit offshore a bit (just off VA beach) and moving up to the benchmark from there. That track is usually enough to at least get precip into southern and eastern PA if not into some of central PA as well. Without the ability to see individual members I can only speculate that there's probably general agreement with the Euro operational with perhaps a couple members being on par with last nights run. I'm not commiting to any one particular outcome either, the GFS is still pretty well offshore attm... although it's made some strides towards a storm. We just had the Canadian go from out to sea last night to 961 inside the benchmark bomb today, and the Euro has been on again off again with this storm the last few days until having it the last couple runs. Oh and looks like we're getting NAM'ed in classic 18z fashion this afternoon with a low tucked in right along the coastline all the way up to the Delmarva shore at 84hrs. It does appear that we're going to get a storm out of this timeframe, with the normal issues of timing/degree of phasing, etc dictating what kind of storm we end up with. But we need some run to run consistency to show itself before we can write off any options (e.g. us missing out on the storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The snow is coming down good here. Nice big fluffy flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Just reached the 1.0" mark. Flake size has been all over the map multiple times already. Now back to finer flakes but coming down nicely still (moderate). Temp at 24.1. Looking at radar it would seem that the heaviest of the snow perhaps is passing by me now, unless heavier echoes regenerate to my west soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The snow is coming down good here. Nice big fluffy flakes. Yea nice band here before it breaks up. Easily moderate band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 2.75" so far and still snowing. 10.5" total on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Is anyone else getting some odd error when they try to look at the CTP radar on the NWS site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Very nice moderate snow here Expecting about 2" with the way that things are going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ripping pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 1.7" so far in Bellefonte. Just over 8" snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Look around today, the usual suspects are doing it again. OK, gotcha, and I know that those numbers aren't a forecast, and I wasn't posting them to be such. I know better. Of course the general public, which has no clue how the weather works, doesn't. What I was pointing out was that it was kind of showing an I-95 event again. I wasn't even hinting at the accumulations themselves, other than to reference PSU's post on the "shrinking snow shield" during the past few years. Sucks that I kind of have to defend myself here... It goes back to my former job at AccuWeather. I was stunned to discover not just how clueless the general public is about weather itself, but also clueless the process of forecasting the weather. Only thing I am saying is posting model runs on FB may result in people Thursday saying "hey I thought I was supposed to get _____ inches, what happened?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 snowing pretty good here. almost an inch of snow .temp is 24.6f. Roads are covered and I have heard of a few accidents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Is anyone else getting some odd error when they try to look at the CTP radar on the NWS site? Yeah. I had to go to the national radar page to get in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 2.8" here, looks like one more heavier band of snow to move through. Nice little snow event today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It goes back to my former job at AccuWeather. I was stunned to discover not just how clueless the general public is about weather itself, but also clueless the process of forecasting the weather. Only thing I am saying is posting model runs on FB may result in people Thursday saying "hey I thought I was supposed to get _____ inches, what happened?" I didn't post it on FB. I took it from another person's post to illustrate what it showed. Anyway again. Still a good moderate snow here. Eyeballing an inch so far. Per radar, though, it looks like another "death band" (God I hate that term) is setting up for our SEPA friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Coming down pretty dang good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I'm not commiting to any one particular outcome either, the GFS is still pretty well offshore attm... although it's made some strides towards a storm. We just had the Canadian go from out to sea last night to 961 inside the benchmark bomb today, and the Euro has been on again off again with this storm the last few days until having it the last couple runs. Oh and looks like we're getting NAM'ed in classic 18z fashion this afternoon with a low tucked in right along the coastline all the way up to the Delmarva shore at 84hrs. It does appear that we're going to get a storm out of this timeframe, with the normal issues of timing/degree of phasing, etc dictating what kind of storm we end up with. But we need some run to run consistency to show itself before we can write off any options (e.g. us missing out on the storm). This is hugely important. This setup is based on the phasing to some degree of low amplitude disturbances from both the southern and northern stream. The low amplitude means the disturbances travel faster so their timing will be harder to pin down than usual. I agree 100% that you shouldn't commit to any particular solution until these features have been better sampled at least. We'll also have to consider the fact that the models may not handle heating effects of the current pineapple express event too well, which can impact these disturbances as they come onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 CNN led the 5 pm news with stories on an upcoming devastating ice storm for Atlanta Tues-Wed. Is tjis crazy overreaction hype or are they really facing a major storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I didn't post it on FB. I took it from another person's post to illustrate what it showed. Anyway again. Still a good moderate snow here. Eyeballing an inch so far. Per radar, though, it looks like another "death band" (God I hate that term) is setting up for our SEPA friends. Never said you did. I figured you knew better and were just reporting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 2.8" here, looks like one more heavier band of snow to move through. Nice little snow event today. 2.4", wondering if I can hit 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Not looking past midweek, but I just saw another threat for the 16-17th. And Wednesday could have us in the Harrisburg area zero again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Coming down pretty dang good. MLLRU_l.jpg Idk how much we have, but that was a nice burst of snow we got here in Millersville. I would venture to say 1" is certainly doable, if we haven't gotten it already. Radar looks nice out west too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GFS might be the last to catch on. It's just not digging the northern stream H5 nearly as much as all the other guidance so the stj wave escapes OTS before eventually being captured and phasing much later and further north. If its right score an epic win since it has no support from anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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