JamieOber Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NYC is already at 40.3" and Philly's at about 40.5". Unless there's a late season rally for you guys, I'd say the odds are better than even that both stations beat the Central PA stations. Crazy how the snow climate seems to have shifted in the last 5-10 years. UNV has a higher snow average than Boston but has beaten them I think once or twice in the last decade. https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/431948494387945472/photo/1 If that pattern forms then we could definitely catch up, especially Philly. No guarantees in weather but that's the sort of pattern that works around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Enough! All of January and perhaps most of February is already too much for this warmanista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Some good points in that article, especially the one where Tyburski was saying about the possible storm taking precedence while we had a legitimate significant winter storm impacting the whole state. That's why it's important during an active stormy pattern with storms and rumors of storms to take the threats one at a time as they come. Acknowledge the longer range possibilities sure, but concentrate on the storms that are on your front doorstep first. The storm was dubbed "the unicorn" for a reason. Despite a presence on the ensembles for a time, it was all over the place and not anywhere near nailing down specifics of track or impact given the range at the time. There were some pretty big time runs on this particular storm last weekend but generally people didn't realize for the most part a lot of these snowmaps included the weekend storm ALONG WITH the Feb 3 and 5th events.. and that was at a point when February 5th was looking more white than icy in southern PA. So yea, if you get three Gulf storms impacting the same general area obviously someones probably going to rack up the snow totals of the 20-30" variety with all the events combined. That would've been unprecedented IMO, if we would've had the big storm this weekend. Anyone remember the last time we got hit with three big storms in less than a week? Also an interesting point was this angle: I remember this happening locally back in '09-10, after we got whacked with the Feb 5th and 10th storms. Somehow a rumor got started we were going to get a storm bigger than those storms.. and that was never even on the models. While I am watching The Putin Show with the wife, I'll share my thoughts on this. Well, I worked in weather communications, as I've said before, and I gotta say, I am just floored that hundreds of people don't end up dead in every serious weather event. I am going to frank, but the level of outright cluelessness about weather is positively depressing. I learned from working in weather that a fair amount of people flat-out just imagine forecasts. I'd get the most vile email attacks claiming we didn't forecast rain on a day that it was ****ing impossible not to and every weather outlet had rain in their forecasts. A bit over half of the public thinks forecasts are accurate 50% or less of the time. And this is despite forecast accuracy being quite good. Along with people more remembering the busts than the good forecasts, false forecasts are a big reason for people believing the myth that forecasts are never right. I've heard radio DJ's read a forecast from yesterday, morning show hosts openly say the forecast is going to be wrong, and people completely mishearing a forecast as something different. Plus, you have the fact that people have completely wrong ideas about how the weather even works. For example, believing that tornadoes can't hit near rivers or on hills. Into this you get social media. I am very active in social media and it's a big part of my job now. But social media has been both a boon and a nightmare for weather forecast communications. You can have rumors of storms spread like wildfire. Some knucklehead can share a snowstorm map for 10 days out and next thing you know it spreads across the Internet to the point where regular media outlets are picking up the "story". I am really glad the NWS is working to combat it. We can help by debunking this crap ourselves. Point out where maps are bs. Point people to the NWS site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I am really glad the NWS is working to combat it. We can help by debunking this crap ourselves. Point out where maps are bs. Point people to the NWS site. Believe me, I've been trying. I posted that pennlive article above, and the one that was previously posted about hype-mongers. I've also made sure to mention that my weather updates aren't "mine," they come from the NWS, and I know for a fact that people turn to my facebook for snow forecasts first as they've told me so. Still, many people would rather follow the S&S and EPAWA type groups than the NWS. Seems like they prefer the dramatics over good forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Man, you know you've had a good snow season when albeit a small event is not even being mentioned by anyone. Looks a chance for a quick 1-2" in spots Sunday night into Monday morning. Nothing extreme, but something to possibly add to snow totals in areas. I'll start diagnosing it more tomorrow. This has been a crazy week. School, snow, ice, lack of sleep and the gym. Body and mind officially worn out haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
var126 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Woke up to find that the West Branch has finally frozen over at Lewisburg - took that last storm to give it the final push. This weather has brought all kinds of unusual water fowl to the river - redhead ducks, white winged scoters, a coot - not to mention a couple of snowy owls over in Northumberland County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 A few models showing an inch refresher over the whole region tomorrow. If you're into adding on the totals it's a perfect chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 Low of -1° this morning. Could easily tack on two more subzero lows this upcoming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 A few models showing an inch refresher over the whole region tomorrow. If you're into adding on the totals it's a perfect chance. I think we could potentially end up with a little more. Most models show over .10 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Low of -1° this morning. Could easily tack on two more subzero lows this upcoming week. We hit a low of -2.4 I wish I had kept track of below zero lows. Had a lot this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I think we could potentially end up with a little more. Most models show over .10 qpf.How about for the LSV? Haven't had a chance to check models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS is a unanimous .1-.25 QPF for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 1-2 looking good for tomorrow if dry air doesn't kill it like the clipper a couple of weekends ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS was also close to a significant snowstorm for "true central" 2/13-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 1-2 looking good for tomorrow if dry air doesn't kill it like the clipper a couple of weekends ago. We did okay with that, around an inch, but it was outright bizarre how the snow died on radar EXACTLY over I-99. GFS was also close to a significant snowstorm for "true central" 2/13-14. Yeah, sort of shows like a 3-5 storm as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS was also close to a significant snowstorm for "true central" 2/13-14. If you only look at H5 on the GFS you realize how close it is to something big for our area. Forget the surface, its not like its going to get that right from this range anyway, but loop the h5 runs from the last 3 GFS and you will see its trending towards something we would like. It digs the northern stream H5 vort down and amps right under us, but just fails to phase in time with the stj vort being absorbed. It was so so close to bombing a low in the perfect spot for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I don't have the best Euro maps, but the Euro does look pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 45k still without power in York County, Met-Ed is an absolute sham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Some euro love. Look like 4-6 for Harrisburg region, but it is many days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Not chasing next week, models still looking good for an okay even tomorrrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 45k still without power in York County, Met-Ed is an absolute sham. I'm only seeing 9k. Clear cache? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS is such a pathetic joke of a model...goes from slopstorm to hundreds of miles OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Anyone notice the DT effect? In other words, when DT hyped the 12/9 ice event, it ended up being a dud, but when he did not hype the 2/5 event, it turned out downright nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 45k still without power in York County, Met-Ed is an absolute sham. Yea its down to what I just saw around 8000. Still a lot especially if your one of them and a know some in the Eastern Part of York County. I had 2 1/2 days without it and was really getting frustrated even with a Generator. I am impressed with PPL though. I called at 2pm today to report a tree on a wire that comes to me through the edge of the woods putting the wire only 3 foot off the ground even though I had power and they got here with two trucks in an hour. they said things are starting to settle down. I do have a lot of wood down for any locals who heat with wood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 If you only look at H5 on the GFS you realize how close it is to something big for our area. Forget the surface, its not like its going to get that right from this range anyway, but loop the h5 runs from the last 3 GFS and you will see its trending towards something we would like. It digs the northern stream H5 vort down and amps right under us, but just fails to phase in time with the stj vort being absorbed. It was so so close to bombing a low in the perfect spot for our area. A good track for you guys would be through or just west of about Norfolk, VA and through the Chesapeake Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yea its down to what I just saw around 8000. Still a lot especially if your one of them and a know some in the Eastern Part of the County. I had 2 1/2 days without it and was really getting frustrated even with a Generator. I am impressed with PPL though. I called at 2pm today to report a tree on a wire that comes to me through the edge of the woods putting the wire only 3 foot off the ground even though I had power and they got here with two trucks in an hour. they said things are starting to settle down. I do have a lot of wood down for any locals who heat with wood. PPL is doing a very good job. PECO is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Just to correct my previous post its probably closer to 9000 like neffsville said I was going of off met ed site. There are a couple of other companys covering York Co but Met Ed has most of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 PPL is doing a very good job. PECO is another story. Yup, kuddos to PPL. Only out of power for twelve hrs. They seemed more prepared for major events like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looks like a half decent light snowfall for most tomorrow to add some padding to the concrete ice layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looks like a half decent light snowfall for most tomorrow to add some padding to the concrete ice layer. StormTotalSnow-1.png Yep just got my WWA for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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