PennMan Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 Moderate sized flakes here, very nice. Nice here in Bellefonte. <1mi vis with good flakes. 23°. I think we are both good for 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think you need to alter this to I-81 from Harrisburg south. Look at the storm maps page on the weather.gov CTP and you'll see what I mean. I would edit that to 81 from Hazleton south. The poconos have been hit good lately but once south of there seems a lack of big snows lately compared to historically. Most importantly there were some storms where the track would suggest this area should have got hit good, but the precip shield was more tightly would then normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro is still the furthest into PA with precip, getting some precip into southern and eastern PA and decent precip for places like Lancaster and maybe up into Harrisburg somewhat. Positioning of the low just off the VA Beach coast at 96 is acceptable but like the Canadian the low develops and tracks along the SC/NC coasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Snow still coming down pretty good, already up near an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro is still the furthest into PA with precip, getting some precip into southern and eastern PA and decent precip for places like Lancaster and maybe up into Harrisburg somewhat. Positioning of the low just off the VA Beach coast at 96 is acceptable but like the Canadian the low develops and tracks along the SC/NC coasts. We've seen this show before. Anyway, at least the snow now is looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 really nice banding showing up over central PA. Hope that holds together.Regarding the wed event, its not as bad as some were leading to believe for east central PA. Gets about .5 qpf back towards MDT. Disturbing thing is it shows a similar but not as bad depiction as the GGEM with a very intense tightly wound band of precip right near the low along the coast then only lighter precip west of there in places that should probably get better qpf based only on the slp track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 Really picked up quickly here. That big evergreen is less than a tenth of a mile from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 really nice banding showing up over central PA. Hope that holds together. Regarding the wed event, its not as bad as some were leading to believe for east central PA. Gets about .5 qpf back towards MDT. Disturbing thing is it shows a similar but not as bad depiction as the GGEM with a very intense tightly wound band of precip right near the low along the coast then only lighter precip west of there in places that should probably get better qpf based only on the slp track. Ggem/jma/euro all have that tight precip & wound up look, nj on western fringe of jma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 really nice banding showing up over central PA. Hope that holds together. Regarding the wed event, its not as bad as some were leading to believe for east central PA. Gets about .5 qpf back towards MDT. Disturbing thing is it shows a similar but not as bad depiction as the GGEM with a very intense tightly wound band of precip right near the low along the coast then only lighter precip west of there in places that should probably get better qpf based only on the slp track. The kicker over the Midwest is inhibiting how much precip makes it west into PA. The 500mb low closes off, which makes for a comma head heavy snow band, but the kicker being so close by keeps that from spreading very far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ggem/jma/euro all have that tight precip & wound up look, nj on western fringe of jma I know that's what disturbs me for the 81 region. UNV area needs the track to be further west...not sure what we need here in the MDT-AVP area... track looks great but yet precip wound up too tightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The kicker over the Midwest is inhibiting how much precip makes it west into PA. The 500mb low closes off, which makes for a comma head heavy snow band, but the kicker being so close by keeps that from spreading very far west. ehh I was just looking at the 700 mb to see where the confluent flow from that is and I see the kicker but the confluence seems far enough west not to inhibit precip into PA. UNV to Pitt maybe but MDT and AVP are well east of the influence of the kicker. The problem to me seems more likely the effect of sinking air to the west of such an intense convective band. When you get a convective band like that you end up with a small area of 20" plus instead of a big area of 10" plus. Lately we have been having more of those tightly wound convective type systems and thus bigger storms for coastal areas and not as much for inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Fun trivia: 144 years ago today the U.S. Weather Bureau (which eventually became the NWS in 1970) was created. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 ehh I was just looking at the 700 mb to see where the confluent flow from that is and I see the kicker but the confluence seems far enough west not to inhibit precip into PA. UNV to Pitt maybe but MDT and AVP are well east of the influence of the kicker. The problem to me seems more likely the effect of sinking air to the west of such an intense convective band. When you get a convective band like that you end up with a small area of 20" plus instead of a big area of 10" plus. Lately we have been having more of those tightly wound convective type systems and thus bigger storms for coastal areas and not as much for inland. That's true too. Way back when in the 1990s, I remember there being a lot more favorable storms for the PA/NY crew. I remember how crippling the March 1993, March 1994, November 1995, etc storms were and wanting to live there while it was slop or rain where I was. Times have changed I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 1.5" of new snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It's not snowing here, LSV screwzone, WAHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Please mets, stop posting model runs. I can't handle it anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That's true too. Way back when in the 1990s, I remember there being a lot more favorable storms for the PA/NY crew. I remember how crippling the March 1993, March 1994, November 1995, etc storms were and wanting to live there while it was slop or rain where I was. Times have changed I guess. I suspect the warmer waters in the atl lately have something to do with it. Increasing convection around the low and thus getting a more intense but also more tightly wound system. SNow much closer to the low then historically also...tracks that "should" be rain in NYC have been snow a lot lately also due to heavy convective banding dynamically cooling the column. JB had a video this morning that highlights this point...talking about the perfect track for UNV being right over ACY. Well if MDT and along 81 is about 50-70 miles east of there...then the perfect track for this area should be 50-75 miles east of ACY. Lately that track has bombed 95 though and not much gets back here. We will see if this week is another example of this. Its still several days away so I am not too worried yet but its a disturbing trend for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 For posterity, this was posted over on FB. If it doesn't belong, Pennman can take it down, but the 12z euro depiction is a classic I-95 onslaught once again. I think PSUHoffman is really on to something. It does seem as if lately, prefect tracks DO NOT usually equate to a "perfect storm" for I-81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 For posterity, this was posted over on FB. If it doesn't belong, Pennman can take it down, but the 12z euro depiction is a classic I-95 onslaught once again. I think PSUHoffman is really on to something. It does seem as if lately, prefect tracks DO NOT usually equate to a "perfect storm" for I-81. 1506526_645394705507791_264618004_n.jpg Not bad still pushes 1 to 3 back to UNV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I would rather take my chances with an off shore track then an inland track any day here in Lancaster. Still got 20" from the 93 storm but a lot of it fella as sleet or snow/sleet mixture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 For posterity, this was posted over on FB. If it doesn't belong, Pennman can take it down, but the 12z euro depiction is a classic I-95 onslaught once again. I think PSUHoffman is really on to something. It does seem as if lately, prefect tracks DO NOT usually equate to a "perfect storm" for I-81. 1506526_645394705507791_264618004_n.jpg Haha Atlanta better be prepared this time according to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 For posterity, this was posted over on FB. If it doesn't belong, Pennman can take it down, but the 12z euro depiction is a classic I-95 onslaught once again. I think PSUHoffman is really on to something. It does seem as if lately, prefect tracks DO NOT usually equate to a "perfect storm" for I-81. I had a huge post ready with historical data to back it up about central PA snows...both for UNV area and MDT area that showed this...then my damn cpu had a hicup and I lost it. I am putting it back together again since I still have all the raw data and stuff just have to put the presentation back then post it to my fb blog and I will link it here for those that want to see it. Now the EC is not so bad, I would take .45 qpf, and probably 5-6" of snow in a heartbeat but that track should be 10" for this area. We will see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Here comes the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Haha Atlanta better be prepared this time. Yikes...I didn't even look at the south. That city will be shut down for a week if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Radar seems to indicate that within the next 15 minutes it will start snowing here and go straight to heavy if that dark green band isn't gobbled up by Blue Mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Radar seems to indicate that within the next 15 minutes it will start snowing here and go straight to heavy if that dark green band isn't gobbled up by Blue Mountain. Very heavy snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yikes...I didn't even look at the south. That city will be shut down for a week if that happens. In reality though, the accumulations depicted by the 12z down in Virginia and the Carolinas is indicative of what we used to see up here from such a storm. A broad area of 10 inch plus amounts.Not so much anymore, as PSU is alluding to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yea, don't be fooled guys, A LOT of us never really ever do well from those. A few times we did well with coastals, but generally they are just good at keeping you up late for 0z runs and praying for shilfts west that are technically impossible because of kicker systems. For today's storm snowing pretty good out everything is covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Off to the races....heavy snow with 0.1" already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I would rather take my chances with an off shore track then an inland track any day here in Lancaster. Still got 20" from the 93 storm but a lot of it fella as sleet or snow/sleet mixture. I don't remember any sleet with that one. I lived in Eastern York Co then mabey the line was east of there. Some of the worst drifting I could remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Lol guys please don't get wrapped up in this event it will not sig. Impact just about any of us. These types of storms rarely trend west and we've been through this drill before. Enjoy whatever falls today and hope a good SWFE is in the works.Not familiar with your abbreviations. SWFE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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