CarlislePaWx

Looks like at 3:00 I am finally going to drop below 32.0 (I'm teetering between 32.0 and 31.8) and stay below there the rest of the day. I didn't warm up that much...only to 34. A check of some of the models that output surface temps shows that every one of them has busted low by several degrees. The HRRR seems to be way high on tomorrow night's lows, only dropping the MDT area, including me, to a low of +8F. Fortunately, I've got a nice, solid snow pack that still is close to 3" deep. That should help tremendously with radiational cooling tomorrow night. NWS has me at +2 for the low so I definitely have a shot at zero or a little below. Looks like that Euro chart from MAG shows me at around -3 or so.

Morning all. First look around this morning and I see all trees with a very light coating of white. Same for sidewalks but not the street. Last night around 9pm I got on here and said I had dropped to 29.1 degrees and was feeling pretty good about accumulation chances. Well that drop turned out to be a big tease as the temp started going back up again and by midnight I was up to 31.6. This morning I see that at some point during the night I shot all the way up to 36 like many of you also did. I haven't measured the rain gauge yet but my automated gauge is reading 0.10". That would be mostly rain before the changeover. I'm going to record 0.3" of new snow based on the board and trees. Fortunately I still have a solid base of between 2.5 to 3.0" which should be enough to enhance any radiational cooling we see here over the next few night. I'm hoping to see zero Saturday morning. >>Forgot to mention that clearing skies are progressing southward from the north. The sun is about to come out within the next 10 minutes. My temp is back down to 31.6. Yesterday the models showed temps continuing to drop down through the 20's with mid 20's by sundown. Let's see.

How strange with the temp reversing from earlier. It's been very slowly rising and now is back above freezing at 33.1 degrees. I'm still not worried about much loss at the beginning. It won't take long for precip to become snow and start to accumulate. I see the radar is showing rain echoes over me right now but so far it's been dry. I'll be back in the morning (after 9:00) with a total measurement for whatever falls overnight. Off to bed for me now.

Wow. Well I know my memory isn't quite what it used to be. So the time frame was quite a bit longer and it was more recently as well. 364/24=15 days + 4 hours. That's half a month! Impressive. I'm surprised I did not remember those sub-zero record lows. Instead of the snow being mush I think it's my brain beginning to turn...lol. Thanks for the info! I'm surprised I did not hear from @djr5001 with the historical data. He's always been pretty good with that stuff. PS>>My temp has been very slowly heading back higher and I'm now up to 31.6 degrees. Once the precip begins it will bring down the temperature with it so no worries.

I won't keep updating but my temperature continues to drop even though skies are overcast and it is not precipitating. I"m now down to 29.1 and headed down. One other thing that is noteworthy is that from this point forward my temperature is not forecast to rise above freezing for at least the next 7 consecutive days. That doesn't happen too much around these parts anymore. Just going by memory, I think the last such period of consecutive days below freezing was 11 back in January of either 2014 or 2015...which ever year was the brutal cold winter with the "polar vortex". With a high temp today of only 41.7 degrees I lost very little snowpack. I still have about 2.5" solid everywhere. Hopefully after tomorrow morning there will be another inch or two.

I don't know how much I'll ultimately end up with...but surprisingly I'm already down below freezing at 31.3 degrees. Guess I don't have to worry about the initial "mush" NWS was speaking of. lol

Unfortunately, it looks like the nightshift's passing the buck was a wise decision.

@Bubbler86...look at it this way...I was trying to be more like @Blizzard of 93, and less like @paweather.

I'm not trying to be picky. The 18z has the precip arriving a little bit earlier than 12z did...looking like start time between 1 and 2. It actually doesn't stop the precip until 9am. At 4am temps are very close to 32 for most of us and your map up there shows me to be 30 at 7am and i said i was 29 because I was referencing the 12z data. I'm certainly willing to agree that perhaps the first tenth of an inch of qpf is not frozen. Obviously things are changing rather quickly with each run. Regardless, 18z is way better than any prior run on the 12k. 3k is not agreeing very well with 12k, however. But HRRR is closer to 12k than 3k.

Have you gone hour by hour through this event with surface temps? The NAM has the temps between 32-34 right at the start around 4am, but at 5am the temps have dropped to 29, and that's when the major portion of the precip begins. For most of us the forecast high for tomorrow is low 40's for a few hours in the afternoon. With the incredibly cold ground there should be almost no loss of qpf at the start. I think near the projected amounts are doable. BTW, I'm not saying that the much higher amounts at 18z will happen, I just think that nearly all the qpf will be snow and it will stick, even if it's just an inch.

This is...

If you had gotten your wish I would have gotten 2 feet of all snow instead of 13" of snow followed by 5" of sleet. I was in north Jersey back in '93. That might have been the last time until today that a low passed close enough to me to drop to its lowest pressure. Back then the superstorm passed by just 10 miles east of me. It went west of Newark and east of me (15 miles west). I only went up to 27 degrees and stayed in sleet while Newark airport shot up to 38 degrees with rain for a time. The pressure of that storm as it passed by me was 969 millibars, or 28.61".

Well I've waited all afternoon for Blue Mountain to stop eating up all my LES and it finally gave in. Moderate snow here now, blowing around, but intense enough to be accumulating. Another bonus, it sent my temperature down from 32 to 29! >>Snowboard is covered in white now with 0.1" of new, additional snow.

Good morning to all! Well I finally got caught up reading the 92 posts that awaited me this morning. I see from the NWS snowfall report that there is another trained spotter somewhere here in Carlisle. The Carlisle report wasn't from me. However, his measurement nearly precisely equaled mine. At 9:00pm last night when the pure snow began to have sleet in it I measured 3.6" and he measured 3.5". @Cashtown_CoopSo here is my complete storm report: Snowfall (excluding sleet) = 3.6" SLR of the snow = 0.50" producing a ratio of 7:1. This ratio would be higher if I had caught the sleet mixing in a little sooner. Sleet = 0.4" Total Snow/Frozen = 4.0" Freezing rain + melted sleet = 0.37" with the total liquid for 1/16 = 0.87" with the freezing rain ending at 11:58pm when the temperature reached 32.0 Liquid rain = 0.11" which all fell after midnight (for calendar 1/17) Total liquid from the storm was 0.98" (the exact same as Cashtown) Snow remaining on the ground = 3.0" Finally, I got my wish which was to see a pressure of <= 29.00" when it bottomed out at 4:30am at 28.99" or 981.7 millibars! >>Phew, that was a lot of data tracking (lol) As I write this the pressure has only gone back up to 29.17" or 988 millibars

At 11:58pm in Carlisle, the temperature has reached 32.0 which will be the high for the day. The pressure is down to 29.34" or 994 millibars and is falling at a rate of 0.14" / hour. Just 24 hours ago the pressure was a full one inch of Hg higher at 30.40". An amazing drop in pressure and an amazing rise in temperature all within the one day of January 16, 2022. I'll be back in the morning with the precip summary for the 16th. I'm exhausted...lol. PS>>>Now that it just hit 32.2 degrees I can say that plain rain is falling lightly. NWS is forecasting me to reach 37 degrees by 1 am. That prediction I do not believe is going to come true.

Just minutes away from hitting 32.0. It's 31.8 degrees now with light freezing rain. Meanwhile, the pressure continues to crater at even a greater speed now. Reading 29.37" or 995 millibars and falling at a rate of 0.14" per hour. A true bomb getting closer and closer.

Here in Carlisle at 11:00pm...the temperature has risen another 2.5 degrees over the past hour and has just reached 30.0. Pressure continuing its rapid decline, now reading 29.48" or 998 millibars and is falling at a rate of 0.11"/hr which is the same rate it's been falling at for the past 4 hours! Not much sleet is falling now. Primarily light freezing rain, which won't be freezing anymore if the rate of 4.5 degrees per hour increase continues for another half-hour. My guess is that it starts to slow down soon. The first gusts of wind have just rattled the house...just 10mph but they've been calm the whole night up until now. I'll be staying up for one more hourly ob at midnight then it's lights out until morning.

At 10:10pm in Carlisle, my temperature has risen to 26.8 degrees which is roughly 2.5 degrees higher from last hour. Dew point is 26. The pressure continues its rapid descent, now down to 29.56" or 1001 mb and falling at a rate of 0.11" /hr, or nearly 4 millibars/hr. Since the snow ended and the sleet began I have recorded 0.3" of sleet. It is currently a mixture of sleet with freezing rain roughly 70/30 sleet/zr. If temps don't go much above 32 for too long I should be able to hold on to the new snow pack pretty well.

After one run that gave us a coastal along with 12"+ of snow for this storm (6 days ago), it definitely was the first and initially only model to show the inland track with the low going up through PA. It really does deserve credit.

Here is my preliminary measurement for the snow and melted. As usual I wasn't aware of the sleet mixing in until at least 5 minutes later. Melted sleet destroys the SLR of the pure snow. But, even though I know this number is contaminated, it's the best I can do. The 3.6" of snow melted down to 0.50" of liquid producing an SLR of roughly 7 : 1. The ratio before the sleet had to be at least 10:1 given how cold temps were. My board is cleared and now measuring sleet, which is about 98% of what is falling right now. Temp up to 23.5 and pressure down to 29.62". If the surface low moves as progged, then the center of it should pass extremely close to this area at which time it should be below 29.00". Pressures below 29.00" are quite unusual for our part of the country. Maybe someone could look up the MDT records to see when was the date of the last time the pressure dropped below 982 millibars?

At 9:00pm in Carlisle the temperature is 22.5 degrees, up 1.5 degrees in the past hour. Dew point is 21. Pressure is crashing, now down to 29.68" and falling very rapidly at 0.12"/hr. It is snowing but also the first pingers have also arrived. New snowfall in the past hour is 0.9" for a snow storm total of 3.6". I'm going to clear my board, melt down my snow, and then begin to measure the sleet. I'm a bit surprised the sleet made it here so quickly.

Anyone noticing the two big dry slots? One out by Pittsburgh and the other huge one down in south central Virginia. Up here we really might just go over to sleet and then cut off for a while. Should be interesting to watch.

At 8:00pm in Carlisle, the temperature is 21.0 degrees, up 1.3 degrees in the past hour. The dew point is 20 degrees and the wet bulb is 20.7 degrees. The pressure is 29.80" and falling rapidly at 0.07"/hr. It is currently snowing moderately with larger flakes. During the past hour 0.8" of new snow has accumulated bringing the storm total to 2.7". It seems I am missing out on the real heavy stuff both to my south and even southeast out Lanco way. I'll keep monitoring.

At 7:00pm in Carlisle the temperature is up to 20.3 degrees, an increase of 1.6 degrees in the past hour. Dew Point is 19 and the wet bulb is 20. The pressure is 29.87" and falling rapidly at 0.06"/hr. It is currently snowing moderately to occasionally heavily. During the past hour an additional 0.9" of snow has fallen, bringing the storm total to 1.9".

At 6:00pm in Carlisle...Moderate snow is falling. The temperature is 18.7 degrees, up 0.9 degrees in the last hour. Dew point is 17 and the wet bulb is 18.0. The pressure is 29.93" and falling rapidly at 0.07"/hr. During the past hour an additional 0.6" of snow has fallen bringing the storm total to 1.0".