CarlislePaWx

Well, held on to super heavy rates until about 5 minutes ago. All the way back down to light now. Will measure at noon. Expecting another 1". Temp 26.2.

It's even more prolific on the most recent run. Note MDT went from 0.09 up to 0.32". Like you said the majority of this falls by 10pm.

Wow. It was snowing heavily for the entire hour between 10 and 11. More heavily than I even estimated. I picked up an additional 2.3" to reach 4.0" total so far. It continues to snow heavily at this same 2"/hour rate. Temp 26.1. Will enjoy it while I can.

Vsby around 0.25 mi in heavy snow. Temp holding at 25.7. Will measure again at 11. Should be more than another 1" of accum by then. Area of 30 dbz on radar came through, now back to 25 dbz.

Almost snowing heavily here now. Temp 25.7 / Dew 23. Had 1.3" at 9:30 and for 10:00 ob just measured 1.7". I think the 1"/hr rate is just arriving. Flake size is increasing from the heavy "fine" size to fatter size.

One small observation is that the 02Z HRRR had a notable pullback on overall accumulations over most of the area. At 01Z it was giving MDT 7.3" total of snow; at 02Z it was giving 5.3" total for the storm. I don't know if it will just keep fluctuating up and down or not. Also, has anyone listened to Tom Russell's forecast? I only heard the forecast that was the daytime on the radio where he was only going for 2-4" over the LSV followed by the flip. Don't know if he's changed his numbers or not tonight.

I'm not sure anybody posted this pivotal map of the 0Z HRRR out to 12Z Thursday morning...

On the other hand, the HRRR gives me 8" of snow and only 0.06" of ZR. Which one do we trust???

I don't trust the freezing rain output of the 12Km NAM, but the 3Km I lean towards as being a better representation. After giving me 5" of snow the 3Km gives me 0.49" of ZR through 12Z Thursday. Yikes!

And the roller coaster continues. Yeah, Wednesday is rapidly falling apart on the GFS with only 1" at MDT. FV3 a little better with 4" at MDT. Of course there is still time for it to reverse course again but certainly not looking promising at the moment. What a difference 24 hours makes.

I don't see how that map can come to fruition for any snow accumulations in the LSV. My point n click never gives pure snow and/or sleet from start to finish. Their thinking right now is that there is only a 20% chance of precip arriving in our area before 4pm anyway. The pivotal maps show no snow accumulations south of I-80 from both 12K and 3K, so even mid SV is no snow.

Hi all from cloudy, but mild Atlanta where the temperature is currently 60 degrees. The daffodils are in full bloom. Some trees are budding. When we were in the 60's last week they were in the 80's. I'm down for a super-short visit with my son and fly back tonight. I see it's 53 at my home in Carlisle right now. How lovely...lol. Great to see posting pick back up after the Wednesday storm appears to be back on the table, and even bigger and better than before. Also glad to see the forum settling back down and hopefully returning to its normal, friendlier self. Talk to you all after I'm back home.

Where's PennMan when you need him?

NWS thinking is that when the cold front pushes through overnight (before 3AM) warmer air aloft will mix down and there will be a spike in temperatures sending them notably back above freezing. They might remain above long enough for the accretion to melt off.

So this storm DID have a trick up its sleeve after all. Who would have thought we'd go back to freezing rain as the storm was winding down?? This is like the surprise MAG had with so much more sleet and no freezing rain in his area. That also was not supposed to happen.

Amazing...my temperature continues to slowly fall. I'm now down to 31.3 degrees with steady freezing rain falling. The earlier melting has totally stopped for the time being and we are now re-accreting. Edit>> 31.1 F @ 9:14pm Freezing rain is pulling the colder air back down I would presume.

Once you correct your measurement from the 2/1/19 event and record 1.8" you will indeed have precisely 25.0" for the season which just so happens to precisely match my season-to-date as well. (Just a friendly reminder that snow measurements are only made to the nearest tenth of an inch. Quarters of an inch are a no-no.)

Yes, @Cashtown_Coop, oh wow that's easy. Thanks! Meanwhile I'm sitting precisely on 32.0 and not budging for the time being. Waiting to see what that next batch of precip is and does to the temp.

How do you produce the inverse username that I see occasionally placed inside posts? If you create a post that includes that name reference does that person receive a notification?

Temp here is dropping back towards freezing, now down to 32.2 degrees. Maybe when some of the last slug of moisture arrives it will be freezing rain again (or sleet?). Even though the radar shows nothing over Cumberland county now it is raining lightly...on the verge of becoming zr maybe.

Oh no, when Nut sees this he's gonna

Here are my storm stats (as of 1:45pm 2/12): Round 1 snowfall (ending around noon yesterday) = 1.7" ; Melted liquid was 0.22" Round 2 snowfall (everything since noon yesterday) = 2.8" ; Melted liquid including all sleet & ZR was 0.71" Total Storm snowfall was 4.5". Total liquid so far is 0.93" Currently it is 32.7 degrees with very light rain and a few light sleet pellets.

Thank you, nut!!

Question for Blizz or djr... Does the NWS count sleet as snow in its snowfall measurements? I've forgotten. I mentioned I was going to add the 0.3" of sleet I had to my 1.0" of snow since midnight (making my snowfall measurement 1.3"), but I won't do that if that's not the official way it's measured.

He was referring to my comment about the zr stopping here now that I went above 32.0. Yes, that is why I said "more or less". I didn't mean exactly that zr could not still accumulate. BTW, I'm now 32.4.