CarlislePaWx

Hey Hey...for the first time I'm not in sleet at 21Z! And it's got me over the 3" mark now. Funny how things keep slowly improving as we get to less than 36 hours from the start of the snow.

I barely can interpret a sounding. However, after looking over the upper air temp (on the NAM) it shows that the warmest the temp gets at the primary measuring levels of 925, 850, and 700 millibars is +1 up until the point the precip cuts off (by 0Z Sun). However, the sounding says that a small layer between 775mb and 850mb rises to 36F at 18Z. It says temps are below freezing from 850 down to the surface and from 775 on up to 700. So, that little portion of the atmosphere above freezing is what gives us (me) the sleet. (I did the sounding from my location in Carlisle.)

Ah, so the colder trend leading in to the storm is happening. GFS picked up on that this morning. Is the NAM cutting back on the ridiculous 850's up to the NY border?

Just to clarify MDT proper is in the 1-3" snow/sleet with freezing rain/drizzle at the end and no plain rain. He also calls for a period of heavy sleet possible at the height of the precip.

Well, thanks for giving an explanation. What you say makes sense. It's just hard to imagine how terrain could literally act like a funnel to shove that tongue of warm air aloft up over us.

Gee, that makes me feel better? What is with this snow hole? I'd really like to know how meteorologically this is possible. Is this a representation of a primary transferring to a secondary? That's about the only thing that would make any sort of sense.

I haven't been able to figure out why run after run on the GFS it magically makes the snow evaporate over Cumberland and Adams counties while points west, north, and east all get more. I mean I know there will always be a little bit of a downsloping effect from Blue Mountain but something seems wrong with the programming of the model for the area specifically sandwiched between Blue Mountain and South Mountain. If MDT is getting 4" there's no way I'm only getting 0.5".

Looking over the 18Z Nam I see it showing a snow to sleet storm and then ending before 7pm Saturday evening. No rain as surface remains below freezing before, during, and then after the storm passes. This seems to concur with the snow to sleet storm the GFS painted over us as well. It would be great to reach 2" of snow before the mix/changeover. My guess is there will likely be a nice burst of heavy snow for the first several hours before the mix. One thing the GFS shows is temps will be no warmer than the 30's through the end of the run with 20's for highs for quite a few of the days.

Yeah. I almost always hold on to the cold the longest in my immediate vicinity. I wouldn't be surprised to end up with a decent ice covering of the snow from freezing rain with minimal melting near the very end when temps climb up to maybe 33 or 34 before the cold starts to rush back in.

GFS ensemble snow map is a full 50% pullback of amounts from yesterday's morning maps. MDT from 6" down to 3". For me I just keep saying that any event that covers up the grass, which takes roughly 2", is a "decent" snowfall. It would be nice to get more, though, since we're going to get the cold following the storm to preserve the snow pack for quite a few days afterwards. This morning's NAM run will go out to 0Z Sunday, so we should get a hint of where that model is taking things till 7:00pm Saturday evening.

Yep. 5-7" for MDT. Lock it in now!

Quick update at 12:40am I'm now down to 62.2 and have recorded 0.10" of rainfall. The winds did pick up and were quite active for about 15 minutes as the rain arrived, but my gusts were only in the low 30's. I had multiple gusts of 30 and 31 with one max gust of 32mph. They have quieted down considerably over the last 10 minutes and are now averaging 5-10 with some gusts to 15.

Ok, the midnight obs are in and MDT has risen to 69 degrees which sets a new record for the 12th. There's still a tiny bit of time for them to maybe touch 70 briefly before the rain arrives. My temp peaked at 68.0 degrees around 11:30pm and has now begun to fall back as the rain has just begun here. Down to 65.7 after starting the day off at 66.9 at midnight. Also, CXY has gone up another degree and is now 72!!!

Congrats! Open the windows and let that fresh air blow right on in. Meanwhile, MDT did not set a record high today, for the 11th. As of 11pm they were at 68 degrees. Record high for today was 71 set back in 1975. However, they ARE going to set a record for tomorrow, the 12th since the record for the 12th is only 65 degrees which we should all remember fondly as it was set just 3 years ago in 2017! CTP also just issued a SPS for a mini squall line embedded within the leading edge of the approaching rain band. Gusts to 45mph possible. I'll be monitoring that on my weather station to see how high I gust. So far my peak gust has been 27.3 mph. Strong southerly winds continue at 10 to 15 with gusts to 25 frequently. Just an amazing January day all in all. Definitely excited about the upcoming pattern change and the possible snow event late Friday into Saturday.

I meant to mention this earlier and then forgot. Today marks the end of the 2-month long period where the sun sets before 5:00pm. The sun is still rising at the latest possible time, which for here is 7:32am. The earliest the sun sets here is at 4:43pm and that occurred 2 weeks before the solstice. Day length has only increased by 9 minutes since the solstice to 9 hours and 27 minutes (shortest day was 9 hours 18 minutes) but is now increasing by over one minute per day. I personally enjoy having the sun set before 5:00pm, now I have to wait another 10 months before it comes back...lol.

I was just getting excited as I was watching a squall drop south towards me. The dark clouds were almost right overhead and then...poof! It all evaporated, clouds broke up and the sun came back out....nothing! Oh well maybe the next one. Also, overnight low got down to 15.6 around 2:00am. Finally, it looks so beautiful out there this morning with the sun reflecting off of the trees which are all coated in snow. Yes, this is what makes winter great. We only ever get to enjoy it for such a brief period each season it seems. We get to enjoy this until Friday.

I forgot to mention earlier that the calm winds also needed to be accompanied by clear skies. Well, they're completely clear now with the moon shining brightly. No winds. Temp down to 19.9 after briefly touching 19.6. Might see lows dropping down into the mid teens depending on how long the clear/calm lasts. I wouldn't be surprised to see THV reach 10 degrees. We'll see. Edit>>After posting this I checked out York and they were 15 degrees at 11pm. Will probably reach 10 or even single digits briefly if the clear/calm can last a few more hours into the night.

The next great thing that can happen after a snowfall is if the winds stay calm the temps can really plummet. I've dropped 10 degrees from the 32 that I had at the end of the snowfall and am now sitting at 21.6 degrees and continuing to slowly sink. The moment the winds arrive it'll go back up, but for now I can enjoy my well-preserved fresh snowpack.

I'm pretty sure you met the warning criteria. It's 5" or more in 12 hours for all of the LSV counties. The low end of the criteria was adjusted down from 6" to 5" about a year ago by CTP just as winter weather advisory was lowered from 3" to 2" minimum.

Looks like warning-criteria amounts in the southern counties. I'm sure I've picked up another few tenths since I measured over an hour ago. It's still coming down lightly. Big congrats to York breaking the 6" mark which destroyed the forecast for 1 to 3. Always nice to have a surprise with higher than forecast amounts.

I just came in from measuring and I was blown away. 4.0" total accumulation so far on average. The flakes during the past hour were huge and it really began to pile up quickly. It does look like it's about to really wind down now, but 4" over 5 hours is really great in my book. Very nice surprise, and it really did look picturesque with the huge flakes slowly making their way down to the ground. Congrats to all the surprise winners, of which I guess it's looking like I might be included.

Grass now disappearing which means I've reached 2". I'm amazed looking at the radar that the green has become stationary over Adams/Cumberland/Perry counties. Snowing heavily here again and the flake size has gone back up again which means rate is approaching 1"/hr again. Temp holding at 32.2. Looking great out there. Glad to hear many are cashing in with this (not just Cashtown...lol).

Haha, yeah I just looked at radar and surprise, green has suddenly reappeared. And rates and flake size have picked back up again. Guess I will reach 2" after all. Pretty sure I'm up to 1.5" out there now. Streets remain just wet. Temp has finally dropped a few tenths, now down to 32.2 as the sun angle wanes for the day.

Looks like I won't be enjoying the 1"/hr rates any more. Green coverage on radar is rapidly disappearing. Wow, I thought 2" was a lock but now I'm not so sure. Outside it's still coming down heavily but the flake size has gone back down. Still definitely 1/2" / hr rates. Looks like about 1 to 1.2" on the grass now. Temp holding at 32.5. For the event so far I haven't "officially" reached freezing yet. (I don't have a board up since I moved into an apartment back in November. I'll have to improvise with something soon. For now I'll just go out and measure it when it's finished.)

Sidewalks finally caving as the temp has hit 32.5, DP 31.0. Temp has stopped dropping and is seemingly locked here. I'd say the grass now has about 0.7 to 0.8" on it now. About 0.1" on the sidewalks. Flake size has now increased to the largest it's been so far as the snow continues heavily. We could be approaching 1"/hr rates now.