CarlislePaWx

The 18Z HRRR just makes no sense. It warms temps into the low 40's by early afternoon, then holds them there as the precip arrives as rain. It doesn't change it to snow until 6pm but has a surface temp at MDT of 36 and only drops it to 33 by 06Z Monday (when the current run ends). It gives MDT and LNS < 2" total as it looks to be winding down by 07 or 08Z.

Looks like they're on the fence over the warning right now. 3-5" but mentions 6 or 7" at higher elevations. Need likelihood of 5+ in more than 50% of each county for a warning. Maybe they're waiting on the 18Z suite?

ALEET ALEET ****** The sun has just broken out here for the first time today. There are a few breaks in the clouds. Temp 38.8. Over 50% of combined snowfall has melted.

Actually I like that explanation. My board was not nearly as evenly smooth on top this morning as it was yesterday morning.

It was first week of Feb 2010. I got 27" from storm 1 followed by 13" storm 2 for 40" in less than 5 days. Not expecting to ever see that again in my lifetime...lol.

LOL...Nope. I'm still sitting here in my pj's with my laptop relaxing. I'm hoping to let the insolation do its dirty work on my car and sidewalk so I don't have much to shovel! Temp has risen to 36.7 so there is melting going on now. It did look very beautiful here when I got up though. I love seeing everything covered in snow and sticking to everything.

I melted down my 3.0" of snowfall from overnight and once again got a perfect 10:1 ratio with 0.30" of liquid. The weird thing is that both nights were 10:1 snow but last night's was way wetter than Thursday night's. I don't get that. I'm sure this will change but this morning's 12Z HRRR (which ends at 0Z tomorrow evening) starts the storm as rain early tomorrow afternoon and for portions of the LSV keeps it rain until sunset. I think it has to do with precip rates in which it doesn't show the rain changing to snow until rates ramp up later in the afternoon.

Yep...about exactly what I had said. I only need 5.4" more tomorrow to reach a foot over the 3 days.

Only problem with that map is it includes at least half of last night's overnight snow. I'd take at least 1 to 2" off those totals to come up with the forecast for tomorrow. I ended up with a surprise of 3.0" of snow on the board this morning. This snow was wetter as it stuck to the trees significantly more and the woods are really looking very white this morning. It was really coming down as I went to bed around 1:30...as heavily as the night before. Pleasantly surprised for sure. That's 6.8" for the 2 days. Now we wait to see what tomorrow brings.

Lol. The LanCo gradient literally flipped. This run seems to be following the other 0Z guidance sans the CMC. Still a little more time for adjustments maybe in our favor. Look how DC almost misses out completely even with the shift south. Amazing.

Wow. Deja-Vu out there at the moment. Pouring snow at > 1"/hr rate. I can see it isn't going to last a lot longer but will definitely crack 2" and see how much more can get added before it's over. Harrisburg guys get ready. It's coming your way.

It's so strange. I'm looking outside at the exact same heavy snow that was falling at precisely this time 24 hours ago. Heavy snow now with about 1.2" on the board. Unless the radar fills in to the SW this party isn't going to last a lot longer. Maybe another hour for me. That should get me up to between 2 and 2.5" for the event which is close to what the models were showing. Temp 30.7. Is Blizz or daxx going to give Euro update in about 10 minutes? I will try to stay up for that update other wise I'll get it in the morning.

Just measured 0.5" of new snow with moderate rate and decent flake size. Think it's gonna ramp up more from this point over the next 30-60 minutes. This gives me 4.3" of snow for calendar March 1st and season-to-date of 34.6" which now exceeds seasonal climo. Yay.

Incoming radar is a beaut with all greens heading my way...and slowly moving even. Wonder if it will get as heavy as last night?

Best rates are supposed to be over the next 4-6 hours (for tonight's event obviously).

What was your final from this morning?

Snowing here with the board now solidly white. Might be hearing just a few pellets too. Was a mix of snow grains and wet snow about 30 minutes ago as it began to pick up a bit in intensity. Temp 31.1.

I am...but it's extremely light at the moment. I appear to be on the very northern edge of the precip line at the moment.

I believe his final was 3.5", but when he comes back on he can confirm/update. I'm almost due north of him by about 25 miles and had 3.8".

He's in perfect form again today.

We already have @Atomixwx for that.

Neither does the man who shall not be named...but who said this earlier this morning... "And, BTW, The 3rd storm in the series (Sunday PM-Monday AM) looks to drop 6 - 12" in the I-81 corridor, but (naturally) Lancaster is right in the "mix zone" making fine details of storm track critical for us. There may be a huge snow gradient across the county. Developing..."

Just melted down my 3.8" of snow and it measured 0.38" of liquid. Perfect 10:1. Would have thought it might have been a tad higher. This also brings my YTD liquid to 7.09" and, as of this moment, season-to-date snowfall to 34.1".

Latest HRRR pulling back on snow amounts overall for tonight, except southern border counties maybe a smidge more but definitely < 3" LSV as of the current run. Another 9 runs to go before the event though so it could go back up I guess. Wet snow with temp close to 32.

Lol...you're the winner on that map. Bullseye FTW.