CarlislePaWx

Low 51.8 here this morning which ties the low I had last week on that one cool morning. Glorious pre-fall weather today. I happened to catch Tom Russel yesterday. His long-range forecast sounded very encouraging. After the brief upcoming "hot" spell he expects the pattern to change by mid-month with us entering a prolonged "cool" period that sticks around. YAY.

0.33" yesterday; 0.63" today for 2-day total of 0.96".

Lol...as you can see on radar that line had a break in it which passed over me missing me just to the east. I could see the really dark clouds just to my east moving south and away from me.

Not quite that much. But, a wind gust to 31 mph heralded in 0.30" of rainfall. Looks like it's winding down now as skies are brightening. Temp down to 71.

Had a wonderful downpour here from a thunderstorm that went directly over me. Got 0.27" and also saw the same rainbow which lasted for at least 20 minutes. Colors were most vivid closer to the eastern horizon and the arc quit roughly 40% of the way up from the ground.

A crisp 51.8 degrees here for me this morning. A sure sign that summer is waning. Another sign is that we are precisely half-way (length-of-day-wise) to the equinox. We've lost 1 hour and 32 minutes since the solstice and have 13 hours and 31 minutes of daylight today. We have one hour and 31 minutes left to go before equal day and night.

Very productive first 7 days of August. 2.90" total. Amazingly, measured precip on 6 out of those 7 days with the only day with nothing on the 5th. Here's the breakdown: 8/1: 0.11" 8/2: 0.37" 8/3: 0.04" 8/4: 1.18" 8/5: 0.00" 8/6: 0.63" 8/7: 0.57" There was also 0.09" on 7/31 and 0.05" on 7/30. Such an amazing turn-around after the drought most of July.

And breaks of blue sky are beginning to appear as the rain here has officially ended. Got 1.18" since midnight with 0.04" yesterday. It was great while it lasted. Just wish there could have been more.

Up to 0.92" now at 9:45 as the heavy rain rates begin to slow down to moderate. ***The following from NWS is posted here for posterity...*** .CLIMATE... July 2020 was a remarkably warm and dry month in Central PA. *Average Temperature* -Warmest month on record at Harrisburg & State College (82.2F at MDT, breaking the old record of 81.8F set in July 1999; 77.0F at STC, breaking the old record of 76.5F set in 1955). -T-3rd warmest month at Williamsport (78.2F, tied with July 1921 and behind 1955 with 79.1F and 1901 with 78.9F) *Average Maximum Temperature* -3rd warmest month on record at Harrisburg (92.2F behind 1999 with 93.5F and 1966 with 93.2). -5th warmest month on record at Williamsport (90.0F; record of 93.0F set in 1955 with other warmer Julys in 1988, 1934, and 1921). *Average Minimum Temperature* -Warmest month on record at Harrisburg & State College (72.2F at MDT, shattering the old record of 70.7F last year; 67.5F at STC, breaking the old record of 66.6F set in 2012) -2nd warmest month on record at Williamsport (66.4F behind 1901 with 71.1F) *90 degree days* -2nd most on record at Williamsport with 19, behind 1955 with 25. -T-2nd most on record at Harrisburg with 22, behind 1966 with 23 and tied with 1999. *Precipitation* -Driest July since 2007 at Williamsport (1.86") -Driest July since 2002 at Harrisburg (1.35") -5th driest July at State College (1.38")

Heavy stuff has rotated northwestward into my area now. Been pouring for the past 30 minutes. I'm up to 0.75" since midnight. At the rate the storm is moving it's hard to imagine getting much over 2" here and points west. So far winds have been gentle from the NE around 5 to occasionally 10 mph. With a temp of 69 is almost feels "raw" outside...lol.

Hi Guys! It feels like an approaching winter storm only because it just took me 30 minutes to read through 5 full pages of posts! That's definitely a first for me in the summertime. As for precip so far, I had a brief shower back around 5:30pm that delivered a whopping 0.04", and that's all I've got so far as of 10:40pm. I'm excited to track this storm and hoping to maybe reach the 3" mark from it....maybe! Will be interesting to see what peak wind gusts I end up with. Will be a fun day tomorrow afternoon and evening.

LSV now within the cone of uncertainty...lol. I would think that at least means our chances for more meaningful rain are increasing.

Least snowiest season followed by the warmest July and month ever at MDT since 1888. Looking like the monthly mean is going to finalize at either 82.0 or 82.1 degrees or at least 0.2 degrees above the previous hottest July in 1999. 2020....oh what a year it has been, with more to come it seems. It's only July 31 and we're already up to the "I" tropical cyclone name. There's 2 more systems waiting in the wings out in the eastern Atlantic and the Cape Verde season has barely begun.

Keeping tabs on the record average at MDT for July. Through yesterday the mean for the month was 82.2 degrees. The record average temperature at MDT for July is 81.8 set in 1999. The overnight low today was 72 and it's currently 90 at noon. It would seem a lock for MDT to at least hit 92 today. That would produce a mean of 82.0 and would leave the mean for the month at 82.2 going into tomorrow, the final day of the month. In order to break the record MDT can lose 0.3 degrees with tomorrow's mean. With 31 days to work with that means tomorrow's mean can be no lower than 11 degrees below normal, which would be 65 degrees. The forecast temps at MDT for tomorrow are a high of 82 and a low of 72 with a mean of 77. What all this means is that there is a 90% chance that MDT's mean for July 2020 will be higher than 81.8 degrees and will become the warmest July on record and the warmest month of any month ever at MDT since records began in 1888. WOW!

Amazing. 11:40 pm and my temp is 85 degrees with a heat index of 90!! WOW. Like Arizona but with humidity which is currently 61% instead of 15%. High today here was 96. Highest so far this season was 97.5 a couple days ago.

A little late checking in for posts. BTW I leave this tab opened all year long for convenience. That way I also get audio notifications when new posts are made. It's funny because I was literally on the very eastern edge of that thunderstorm line...by like 2 miles! My lightning detector was going bonkers with strikes (mostly in-cloud/cloud-to-cloud) every second for over an hour. The line stretched from just west of Carlisle westward out to Newburg, then progressed southward into Adams. Interestingly, earlier today a similar line formed in the exact same location and also moved due southward, with me just missing the precip by merely a few miles. What a tease! I did manage 0.09" overnight though and 0.24" yesterday from that almost severe thunderstorm around 3:00pm. Looks like things are calming down now in time for more 90's to come back over the weekend and into next week. It also looks like the ridge begins to break down for a while towards later next week and temps drop back closer to normal for a while just in time to usher in August.

My overnight low was 78.4 degrees. One of the warmest overnight mins I've ever witnessed. @canderson, you are very correct about mins 80 or above being rare. I don't even think it is expected to happen once in a season, so last night was a pretty big deal actually. What a difference today with lower dew points. I dropped to 62 at one point for a bit an hour ago. It's back up to between 64 and 66 now with air temp 95.5. High yesterday was 97.5 late afternoon. Seems likely I'll reach that level again with almost clear skies and full sunshine out there now.

Heat index has been over 100 for the past 3 hours. NWS issued Heat Advisories back around 12:45. Only criticism would be did the models show or not show temp/dew combo creating heat index values over 100? My temp peaked at 96 and has pulled back slightly due to clouds from a tiny shower forming over Blue Mountain at the moment. My heat index peaked at 103 and is back to 101. Feels yucky out there but much better inside where it's 74 right now.

Your statement #1 is correct. Each forecast office must follow the criteria established for their particular forecast region. Their accuracy IS evaluated. While coordination between adjoining offices can be considered depending on the "level of severity", the rules are the rules in most cases. As for what is happening in the LSV right now, it would appear that west of the river our forecast highs are a few degrees lower and are leaving us on the cusp of the advisory. My forecast high for tomorrow is 93. Interestingly, as I write this it's 92 with a heat index of 100. Unless there is a drop in the dew point coming it looks like I'll meet advisory criteria this afternoon.

For those wondering about the dates of the climatological peak for temps in our immediate area I'm referencing local data based on Carlisle from NCDC: The maximum temperature is 87 degrees and is reached on July 9th and then remains 87 degrees through July 20th. So technically tomorrow is the "peak of the peak". As for the minimum temperature, it is 63 degrees and is first reached on July 11th and lasts all the way through August 2nd before slowly beginning its descent. So it's still another 3 weeks until the temp really begins to decline into fall. As for @canderson's comment regarding September the month starts off with a mean of 70 degrees and ends with a mean of 60 degrees. October ends at 49 degrees and November ends at 39 degrees. I usually start getting excited about cooler weather beginning around August 15th because I know it's just around the corner.

I'll comment...lol. Congrats to you for the day. I see a flood warning posted for northeast of you as well. I ended up with 0.42". At least I'm over an inch now for the month. We're going into another dry spell this week, though as temps start out around normal early and go above back into the 90's by week's end.

Same here with 0.34" and more on the way too.

I'm getting appreciable sunshine with lots of blue skies at the moment...lol. 83 degrees with a northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph. What a sharp cut-off on the western flank. But I guess is has to cut off somewhere. My memory is faded on this but didn't Irene (2011??) take a similar path, grazing the Jersey shore and passing over NYC? I think that was in September though. Very unusual for a due north track up the coast.

Just finished up another great thunderstorm. Torrential rains that looked like it was snowing as the winds blew repeatedly over 30mph. I had at least 4 separate gusts into the 30's with the highest gust at 35mph. It only lasted maybe 15 minutes depositing 0.28" of rainfall. It seems that almost every storm that has managed to hit me in the past month has delivered high wind gusts and torrential rains for a time. Looks like Mechanicsburg getting hit pretty hard right now but it's going to pass maybe just south of MDT.

Another great thunderstorm just concluded. Had no idea anything was coming until the dark clouds started rolling in from the west. Then, kaboom! Torrential rains and the temp plummeted from 82 down to 65 at the end of the event with 0.64" of rainfall. Combine that with the 0.69" that fell late Monday and another 0.03" on Tuesday and I've had 1.36" in the past 3 days. That helps to make up some for what was an incredibly dry June leading into this week. I only had 1.34" for the month as of the 21st, but now am up to 2.70" having doubled the monthly total.