CarlislePaWx

Quick review from 12Z GFS & NAM. GFS has total qpf for the late Thursday through Friday evening of 0.85". Of that, it shows almost a perfect 50/50 split with 0.39" of freezing rain falling between Fri 12Z and 18Z and a temp of 30 to 31 degrees. Then in the next six hours it shows 0.46" of rain with early temp of 33, rising to 36 by 0Z Sat. NAM has total qpf of about 0.5" through 0Z Sat and is 3 to 6 hours slower with the whole event. It gives 0.2" of freezing rain mainly between 18Z and 21Z Friday and a temp of 31 to 32, followed by 0.3" of rain with a temp of 33 degrees at the end of the run 0Z Sat. It looks like there might be another period of rain between 0Z Sat and 6Z Sat, but probably no more than an additional 0.1". So, both models are showing an ice storm to ring in the new year during the morning into the afternoon Friday. I'm sure it will change, of course, but I thought I'd throw in my 2 cents of analysis since I had nothing better to do...lol.

One model run later, the 12z run gives the qpf in many spots a 30 to 40% haircut.

Hi all. Was out visiting relatives all afternoon into this evening. Glad to see I wasn't the only recipient of the somewhat unexpected snow activity. It sounds like points east of me had a longer steady period into this evening. Back at my last post around 1:00 I did manage to measure officially 0.1" of snowfall for today. So happy to have many on here declaring a white Christmas. Congrats to all.

Getting real close to 0.1". Mulch and stones are totally white along with roofs. Flakes occasionally large but mainly finer. Also, mainly light intensity with occasional bursts of moderate. Anyone remember the last time it actually snowed on Christmas Day? I can't remember any year recently. I'm sure we've had some more recently than 2002. Temp 28.0. I guess "officially" it IS a white Christmas.

Flurries are flying!

Merry Christmas to all. Well of course my ground is visible again. However, lots of piles scattered all over. I now live on a cul-de-sac and I get to look out my front window and see the 8 foot piles of snow that will likely be here until April. I picked up a storm total of 2.53" of rain with all but 0.15" falling yesterday. Hoping for some flurries to pop up over the next few hours.

Crazy temperature swings going on here. Over the past 15 minutes the temp has now dropped 5 degrees going from 52 down to 47. Heavy rain continues with 1.77" recorded so far.

Temp just shot up 10 degrees from 42 to 52 in only 15 minutes! Heavy rain continues to fall with 1.67" recorded so far. The snowpack is really about to take a severe beating with temps above 50. The sudden warmth in the air is leading to fog from the remaining snow.

Wow! I just took a look at my grid forecast. They added another 1 to 2 inches of rain. Mine says 1 to 2 inches during the day Thursday followed by another 1 to 2 inches Thursday night before any possible change to snow. That's insane. I guess I'll enjoy my snowpack for 48 more hours before the Grinch steals all my snow.

Isn't it amazing what a deep snowpack combined with clear skies & calm winds can do for taking the bottom out of temperatures? This morning I recorded a low of +5.5 degrees F! What's funny again is that my coldest minimum for all of last winter was just +9 degrees! Thank you, @showmethesnow for your writeups. I enjoy reading them very much and look forward to reading more in the days/weeks ahead!

Congratulations on the award! It's a blessing and a curse at times. Just glad to be retired now and no longer needing to "sweat the details".

I Presume everyone is heading back over to the general Winter thread?

Glad to provide it! Do you think I'm just a little detail-oriented (in real life)??

Good morning guys! Just got caught up on all the overnight posts. I can't tell you how thrilled I am that north central (and further west out towards PIT) hit the huge jackpot! It's funny that the models kind of got it wrong showing the axis of heaviest snow starting down here in the MDT area and running northeast from there with you guys north and west missing out on the mega-totals. Down here we have been spoiled with big ones, especially in the past 5 years. I know I've had at least 3 different storms that delivered a foot or more since 2016. It was almost becoming commonplace...lol. I was even fortunate enough to be the jackpot winner of the January 2016 storm when I recorded 35"...the biggest single storm of my life. Here is the rest of my storm data: 12/16 snowfall before the sleet= 5.3"; sleet = 1.5"; additional snow up until midnight= 1.5"; Total pure snow= 6.8"; Total frozen = 8.3" 12/17 (snowfall after midnight) = 2.0"; 2-day storm total = 10.3" Liquid equivalent snowfall before the sleet = 0.61" (SLR=9:1); Liquid equivalent of the sleet = 0.43" (SLR=3:1); Liquid equivalent snow up to midnight = 0.15" (SLR 10:1); Total liquid for 12/16 = 1.19" (SLR= 7:1) 12/17 Liquid Equivalent = 0.20" (SLR=10:1); Total Liquid for 2-days = 1.39" (SLR = 7.4:1) Finally, had the storm delivered 100% snow, my storm total would have been 12.8". I see many of us in the LSV got just around 10" which confirms my measurements. I wonder when our next snowstorm will be??

Heading off for the night. My midnight observation was moderate to heavy snow was falling following an entire hour with very heavy snow which totaled 1.5" between 11pm and midnight. This brings the storm total for 12/16 to 8.3". I'll be back in the morning with the final numbers on both snowfall and liquid equivalent. Temp down further to 24.8 degrees on fairly light northwesterly winds. Nite all!

Quick update at 11:15...now 100% snow with big flakes and back to as heavy as it was in the hour before the sleet arrived. Temp had gone up to 27 but has backed down to 26.1. Will do a full ob again at midnight.

Change back to snow here began about 45 minutes ago. Still some sleet but more snow now with big flakes. I cleared off my board again and melted down the sleet. The sleet measured 1.3" total and the sleet melted down to 0.43" of liquid! Not far from 3:1 ratio. So the 4 1/2 hours of sleet would have been 4" of snow had it not changed over. So total liquid for the storm is now 1.04" which consisted of 5.5" of snow and 1.3" of sleet for a frozen total of 6.8". Anxious to see if the big surprise it outside tomorrow morning when I get up. NWS calling for 5 to 9 inches overnight. Here's hoping. Big congrats to everyone west of here that have scored big this event!

Incredible if this comes true...like Blizz just said with the 23z HRRR giving MDT 7" of snow between now and the morning...the 0Z also has the exact same expectations. It is painting an additional 10" of snow over me by 12Z tomorrow morning. That would be absolutely astounding. Here's hoping...

Quick update...it continues to sleet moderately and I have just measured 0.3" of sleet in the past hour. That gives me a storm total 5.8". Current temp is 24.3 / 22.1.

Well folks, I don't have to tell you that I went over to all sleet very quickly shortly before 6:00. It went from the highest rates to CRASH. It's a good thing I'm 61 and not 31 or I'd be incredibly upset right now, especially when I was anticipating 18" possible with 12" a lock. Now who knows if the backside after the change back can deliver the real goods? I cleared my board and also melted down my snow because of the sleet falling. Some sleet made it in and has contaminated my liquid equivalent a little bit. I measured 0.61" of liquid for the 5.5" of snow. That comes out to 9:1 SLR. In all likelihood the true SLR was probably 10:1 or maybe even a little bit higher before the sleet arrived. Temp is 23.9 / 21.9 with light to moderate sleet falling.

Easily snowing at 2"/hour right now with huge flakes that are accumulating very quickly. I anticipate that at 6:00pm I will reach around 6.3" which will tie last winter's entire season! And it does it now in only 8 hours. Crazy!

At 5:00pm in Carlisle it continues to snow heavily. During the past hour I picked up an additional 1.6" of snow for a storm total of 4.4". Temp is 23.4/21.4.

Boy, the HRRR has the low literally going over Cape May and riding right up the coastline to around Long Beach Island, then suddenly exiting stage right.

At 4:00pm the heavy snow has just arrived within the past 10 minutes and it looks like it means business! During the past hour I picked up an additional 1.0" giving me a storm total of 2.8". Temp 23.4 / 21.2. Hopefully this keeps up as per SPC earlier.

At 3:00pm in Carlisle it continues to snow moderately. I have picked up an additional 0.7" in the past hour for a storm total of 1.8". Temperature 23.7 / 21.2. During this next hour the real fun should start to begin.