CarlislePaWx

At 10:00am in Carlisle it has stopped snowing and nothing is falling from the sky. I picked up an additional 0.1" of snow over the past hour giving the daily total of 0.4" and storm total of 4.1" Temp 25.9 degrees.

Good morning all. Earlier when I first went out to check my board and gauge I was a little surprised to see the gauge covered in a layer of ice. As best I could tell, about 0.3" of snow/sleet had fallen between midnight and 9:00am this morning. I cleared the board and melted the mess down. It looks like I got about 0.07" of freezing rain since I had 0.10" total liquid. At 9:00am the transition back to snow began. Right now it is snowing lightly with big snow bombs falling from the sky. They really look like little bombs mixed in with some finer snow. It's all very light and not barely accumulating so far. So my storm total of mainly snow and a little sleet is now 4.0". It would be great if the 12z NAM snow totals materialized out this far west. I guess we just watch and wait. Temp now 26.1 degrees with almost no wind.

Here's my daily report summary from Carlisle for 1/31/21. Total snowfall = 3.7". Total Liquid Equivalent = 0.34". Snow to Liquid Ratio = 10.9 : 1. With only light snow mainly falling between 9:30pm and midnight, only an additional 0.5" was recorded over that 2.5 hr period. The measurement at 11:00pm was 3.6" (which I did not report). Have a good night all. Looking forward to seeing you again in the morning. I hope to get up by 7:30 or so with my next update. ---Stephen

If we get that Miller A next weekend with another 12"+, that storm heralds in a significant arctic outbreak with the coldest air of the season. Miller A's are so much less stressful and generally much more reliably modeled since there is no secondary low to worry about. It's been a number of years since we last saw a true Miller A.

Here in Carlisle, at 9:30pm I have light to moderate snow falling. Since my last report back at 7:00 I have recorded an additional 0.8" of snow bringing my storm total to 3.2". It has now been 12 hours since the storm began. This equates to an average of 0.25" / hour over the past 12 hours. My temperature is 23.0 degrees with a dew point of 22.0 degrees. If the timing of the GFS is correct the banded heavy stuff should be here around dawn. Then the serious stuff begins. Lets hope any mixing does not make it above the mason dixon line.

At 7:00pm in Carlisle, moderate snow is falling. The temperature is 24.1 degrees with a dew point of 23. During the past hour I recorded an additional 0.4" of snow bringing my storm total to 2.4". Back in northern NJ where I am from and where my 2 sisters still reside, NWS Mt. Holly is calling for 16-28" of snow for the storm, 9-13" of which falls during the day, tomorrow. Wow.

At 6:00pm in Carlisle the snow has picked back up to moderate after spending nearly all of the previous hour just light. Only 0.2" of new snow fell, giving a storm total of 2.0". The temperature has settled in at 24.3 degrees with a dew point of 23.

So far the original NWS forecast for this afternoon was 1-3". I'm right in the middle at 2". For overnight they originally were calling for 2-4 but lowered it to 1-3" I'm willing to bet I'll exceed 3" of new snow by 7:00am tomorrow morning.

At 5:00pm in Carlisle, light snow is falling after spending about 30 minutes moderate and about five minutes heavy (lol). All of that added up to an additional 0.4" over the past hour. Storm total now at 1.8". Temp 24.8. Man, the GFS really cranks up the CCB over the LSV early tomorrow morning. 1"/hour+ rates for over 6 hours. Keeping my fingers crossed. I wonder if NWS will have to bump their numbers back up again? haha

Ramping back up now to nearly heavy with larger flakes. Temp continues to fall slowly now 25.9 degrees. My cul-de-sac street which was just wet earlier is starting to cave.

Just after 4:00pm it continues to snow lightly to at times moderately here in Carlisle. The heavy stuff an hour ago only lasted about 15 minutes before diminishing. At 4:00pm I measured 0.4" of additional snowfall bringing the storm total to 1.4". The temp has dropped further down to 26.4 degrees and the dew point is 24.0 degrees. Nice to read some encouraging news after the gloom and doom earlier.

Finally! Moderate to almost heavy snow now falling here. At 3:00pm I recorded an additional 0.2" of snow for a storm total of 1.0" It is currently snowing at the rate of 0.5-0.75"/hr. Temp now 27.1, dp 25. Looking great outside!

congrats! now send it my way please.

It's finally restarting here. Radar echoes are about 2 miles south of me so I expect the intensity to ramp up shortly. No additional accumulation since my 1:00 ob which was 0.8". Temp has dropped from the high of the day which was 28.0 degrees, and now is 27.3 degrees. I see NWS has dropped me from 13" to 9". I still think the former is doable. We'll see.

At 1:00 with cloudy skies and a few occasional flurries my temperature is 28.0 degrees with a dew point of 23.9 degrees. Since 10:30 I have recorded an additional 0.2" for a storm total so far of 0.8". I had a brief, 10 minute long period of moderate snow with good size flakes. That's where the 0.2" came from. Radar continues to show a snow hole remaining over the western 2/3rds of Cumberland County. I'm still waiting for the southern edge which is down along the Adams/York County lines to move north and fill in. Hopefully in the next hour it starts back up in earnest.

Thanks @Blizzard of 93. I can take 13" up to possibly 19". For me here it started snowing around 9:15 and was almost a heavy fine flakes. That lasted about an hour and then it nearly stopped. I picked up 0.6" so far. It is just now starting to snow lightly once again. The big show is really tomorrow. We shouldn't be judging tomorrow's outcome with today's reality. No one can be certain where the CCB chooses to set up. If that low is really only 50 miles off of Ocean City that would strongly argue the CCB setting up somewhere in central and or eastern PA. Oh, I forgot to mention my temp is 26.6 with dew point of 23.0 as of 11:20am.

My earlier comment was really more of an observation rather than personal criticism. And I'm definitely not one to ruffle feathers. @Itstrainingtimeyou are totally correct and I have no problems with your reply to me. After the event is over and we have all the final measurements I would love to ask Tom about his forecast reasoning one way or the other.

Honestly, the ONLY model currently showing anything as low as what he has on that map is the 0z 3K NAM. It's as if he doesn't think we'll get anything from the coastal out this way.

When you say bust potential are you referring to them saying that the amounts could be much higher or much lower than their current forecasted amounts?

Well well well...Do I win the best pre-storm liquid total with my 1.93"??

Haha. Hey I subtracted 15" of snow from the 40" the Canadian gave this afternoon, so my guess seems reasonable.

25.7" of snow from 1.93" of liquid.

Right in the bullseye yet again. 23" when the storm ends 7:00AM Tuesday. WOW.

Solid run with a lot more solid coverage including up to Williamsport. 14" for me...I'll take it!