CarlislePaWx

Thanks! I might just get another 1 to 2" from tonight then. Hoping for 2" to make storm total 4".

Steady very light freezing rain (more than drizzle) falling here now. The snow now has a glaze on top of it. Since I was not quite expecting the zr I didn't get out to bring in my clear-vue to melt down the 2.1" of snow. After melting I measured 0.29" of liquid total which included the snow, the sleet, and the freezing rain. I'd be willing to bet the sleet is what jacked up the water content, not the freezing rain. Temp has risen only a tiny bit, up to 25.9 degrees. @pasnownut How much does the new Euro give back my way for part 2?

A review of the latest HRRR (16Z) says that approximately 2" more is yet to come for all of us. However, it doesn't restart until about 6:00pm this evening and it's over with around 2:00am tomorrow. If I can double my storm total from thus far, it'll be a minor victory. Currently the temperature isn't going anywhere even though the skies did brighten considerably for a time 30 minutes ago. They've darkened back up again now. Temp is 25.2 degrees.

Here in Carlisle at 11:00am the snow has ended. Looks like there's going to be a LONG lull. 2.1" storm total. Temp back up to 24.4 degrees. I had the heaviest rates of the storm about 20 minutes ago right before some sleet began to mix in. I'm not giving up totally but I think the HRRR is going to be right. (Sorry for sounding so down! Not usually like this but all 3 big storms this winter I underperformed by a good margin.) I know it will snow again, maybe this Monday?

Heavy snow here BUT sleet has begun to mix in. lol

Enjoying solid moderate to almost heavy with larger flakes at the moment. But if you believe the radar, at least for now it could be the last hoorah for me. Nothing on radar to my southwest with the back edge less than 20 miles to my west. Temp down to 23.9 with heavier rate drawing down colder air.

Here in Carlisle at 10:00am the snow has all but stopped. I picked up another 0.2" from my previous report for a storm total of 1.9". Temp holding at 24.4. Boy, I was encouraged by the 6Z and 12Z maps. But, has anyone been watching the HRRR? It gives the overall MDT area a storm total of 4"! Looks like it just spits for hours rest of the day and through the night. Disheartening to say the least. On the other hand, all the bare is covered again and snow is on the trees and it looks very scenic.

Morning all. Just caught up on the 119 messages that were waiting for me. In Carlisle it is 24.4 degrees with moderate fine snow falling. I've had periods of larger flakes to the point where it was briefly heavy. Not sure when it started but I'm up to 1.7" of snow as of 9:20am. No sleet. Wonder how far north that line goes?

Well, speaking of delayed starts...the current 04Z run of the HRRR doesn't have accumulating snow reaching MDT until 9:30am and its first inch until 11:00am.

Look closer...Bubbler hacked it! You were his co-conspirator. haha

Here in Carlisle at 11:22pm, moderate plain rain continues to fall. I am up to 0.45" of rain thus far. My temp has been holding just barely above freezing at 32.2 degrees. Like what I'm hearing about Thursday and especially that the NAM is joining the snow train.

What a roller coaster of model runs we've been on over the past week. And what changes to the Thursday storm from just 24 hours ago. If things don't change drastically I'll be very happy with no plain rain after whatever snow/sleet we get. This event may just get me to seasonal climo. 8" would put me at 32" for the season and we still have 6 more weeks left with snow potential. Even if everything stopped right now I'd still be very happy after the non-snow winter we just went through last season.

No ice to speak of here in Carlisle. Light rain has been falling for the past 2 hours and has accumulated 0.07" so far. When the rain started the temperature was 31.1 degrees, however, it has been very slowly rising and just now has hit 32.0. One positive thing is that if the temp doesn't go above 34 degrees with the rain, not much snow melt will occur. Meanwhile, looking pretty good for Thursday. NWS 5-11" of snow with sleet possible. I don't know if I've ever seen them issue accumulations 2 1/2 - 3 days into the future.

...12Z...not bad, a smidge less although 10" for Carlisle...lol...

Oops! Fooled again. I'll go look and see if there are any significant differences...

Here' the map with no sleet. I used Kuchera because temps are in the low 20's for nearly all of the snow portion. About 8-10" for all of us. Roughly same as previous 0Z.

I'm focusing on Thursday's storm right now...and it's looking quite promising that many of us have a significant snowfall with 6-12" for almost all of our subforum. For this snow map, all the snow amounts on an arc from Altoona to State College to Williamsport to Scranton running south and east are all from the Thursday storm. It only goes over to rain for a few hours at the end early Friday when temps crawl up into the mid 30's. Also, looking at Tuesday's storm, any ice accumulations we see are all going to melt as temps shoot up into the low to mid 40's for a few hours Tuesday afternoon before retreating back down below freezing. Other good news is that temps are only in the low 20's during all of the snow portion of the storm and then begin to rise as the transition to sleet, freezing rain and finally to rain takes place overnight into Friday morning. Temps Friday only peak in the mid 30's before crashing back down below freezing later Friday and then remain below freezing continuously through to Monday afternoon. I'm letting myself get "a little excited" for this one for now.

Thursday's storm on the 18Z GFS is pretty depressing. No snow, a little sleet, a few tenths of freezing rain, then a lot of plain rain with temps shooting up to 50. Then what's left of the arctic air finally passes through here later Friday into next weekend, but by that time all our snow has washed away (especially LSV), and maybe even further north. I'd love to say that it's still 5 days away and there's plenty of time for it to change. But with the eastern side of the trough to our west I can see how the storm would come up west of PA. I'm not giving up just yet.

Depending on how far below freezing the rain falls dictates how fast the accrual process is. Currently, with MDT forecast to get 0.87" of freezing rain, it is highly unlikely that all of that rain ends up accruing. If the temp is 30 you won't get anywhere near 0.87" of accrual. I have no idea how cold it would have to be to even reach 0.50" of accretion. 25 degrees? 20 degrees? Actually, another factor affecting accretion would be the intensity of the rain. Light rain has a much higher chance to accrue versus moderate or heavy rain.

Thanks much for replying. I'll be watching for it to come back.

I'm bummed. It looks like sometime this afternoon Pivotal Weather took away the ability to hover over a graphical spot on a map and have its value displayed. That's true for all the maps as far as I can tell. Obviously I can still get approximations since the MDT value is always plotted. But I'm so used to getting the exact temperature or qpf or snowfall. It was there this morning but when I got back late this afternoon it was gone. Does this mean that I have to subscribe in order to get that feature restored? They offer a month-to-month subscription for $6.99 / month. I certainly wouldn't mind paying for Feb and March. They add some nice features in like zoomed in state level graphics and other stuff. Are any others experiencing this same issue (with Pivotal Maps)?

Good morning all. I just finished catching up to the 40 messages waiting for me. Encouraged by the GFS's return to a colder solution. As for me and this current storm I once again ended up with considerably less than was forecasted. Overnight (from midnight to the present) I only picked up an additional 0.9" of snow. That gives me a storm total of 1.9". Last night's 0Z GFS had me getting 8". Even the NWS forecast on the low side was for 3". I'm not complaining, however since more is just around the corner. Everything is covered up again in the areas that were bare yesterday. My back yard faces north so I get to look out and enjoy total snow cover. Front faces south and was getting barer. Back to white out there again.. I particularly like seeing snow on all the trees, especially the evergreens. Oh yeah, the temperature has remained at 27 degrees since midnight and has not budged. Currently it's 27.5.

Here in Carlisle, at midnight, it continues to snow moderately. Since the snow began back around 9:30pm I have recorded 1.0" of snow on the board so far. Temp holding now at 27.1 degrees with a dew point of 25.2 degrees. I'll be back in the morning with an update. Hopefully I'll be reporting more than an inch of additional snow. We'll see. Night all. Enjoy it while you can. We're going to suffer for a whole 48 hours before we see more fall again...lol.

This is snow to sleet and then heavy sleet, ending as sleet. There's obviously plenty of time for this to correct south, or get worse. Axis of heaviest snow is only 50-75 miles north of us. Another @Wmsptwx special. This would put them way over the top for climo for them.

If the 18Z GFS timing works out then it would be ending between 5 and 6am unless things have changed with the 0Z run. It's been moderate snow here the past 30 minutes with nice flakes accumulating about 0.5"/hr. That rate should increase over the next 2 hours. 0.3" on the board as of 10:30. Temp down to 27.5. Roads/Sidewalks now caving also. It's fun to stand under my street light and look straight up and get lost in all the flakes falling like a snow globe.