CarlislePaWx

Good morning all! Here in Carlisle at 10:00am it is snowing moderately, occasionally lightly. I have just recorded 1.0" of snow on the board. Temperature continues to slowly rise and is now 31.8 degrees. The rate is going to have to pick up for any more accumulating with the temp about to go above freezing. Loving the upcoming 2-week outlook. Incredibly wintery. So glad to see the Euro go colder for the Thursday storm. Hope that lasts.

Man, you've been the busy beaver this afternoon and evening, haven't you? As always I want to thank you both for the time you take to post those WB maps and also for your overflowing optimism. Keep it up! PS>>The 18Z GFS also showed amazing cold coming starting next weekend with a massive arctic front passing through here Saturday night. Temperatures start out in the mid 20's at midnight (sat) and fall off the cliff during the entire day Sunday with the LSV down into the positive single digits by Sunday evening, and even further down into the mid minus single digits by Monday morning. Nearly all of Ohio 12Z Monday are all -20 to -25 degrees, western PA is in the minus teens, and central/LSV are -3 to -8 degrees F. Baby, that's cold!

Man, what a run (18Z GFS) with the arctic onslaught. I'm guessing that must be the polar vortex finally dropping in on us? When I saw the LSV in a 480 thickness I knew this was serious cold. I've only witnessed a 480 thickness I think twice before in my life. Once was back in the 80s and once in the 90's. I don't think we've had that out here in the 20 years I've lived here. I'd love for one of the data guys to see when was the last time our region dropped to 480 thickness? MDT drops to -27C at 850 and we go below zero at the surface. Because of the snowpack there are a few nights that MDT drops to -11F! I certainly realize things could change concerning the polar air but that would be amazing since it immediately follows the more than 12" of snow that has just fallen. Exciting next few weeks for sure. Maybe Sunday's storm comes a little more north?

Wow!

A quick view of the 12Z GFS from a temperature perspective shows that after the arctic front passes through here Sun/Mon, we stay continuously below freezing for high temps from Monday 2/8 until Tuesday, Feb 16. That would be a pretty significant stretch of cold spending 8 days below freezing. That's long enough to get some decent ice going on the rivers and creeks. Of course the model gives us virtually no precip after the frontal passage this Sunday through to 2/17, so suppression city seems to be the rule. It also looks like it delays the arctic frontal passage by at least 12 hours until Sunday night.

Here's my midnight recap for the storm in Carlisle. At midnight it continued to snow very lightly. During the past 2 hours only 0.1" of additional snow was recorded. That brought the daily total (for Monday 2/1) to 5.7". The previous day (1/31) recorded 3.7" of snow. The 2-day storm total was 9.4". The liquid equivalent from today's snowfall of 5.7" was 0.70". This included 0.3" of snow and sleet (0.03") and 0.07" of freezing rain. I will be back in the morning to finish this report with the SLR's from each day and the 2-day average SLR. Maybe I'll get one more inch overnight to exceed December's total by 0.1". My board has been cleared and ready for anything that might fall overnight. See you all in the morning!

Looks like @MAG5035 is getting raked pretty good right now with some dark bands dropping down over him. The guy up in Wellsboro looks to be doing quite well now also.

At 10:00pm in Carlisle it continues to snow lightly. During the past hour only an additional 0.1" of snow has fallen. This brings the daily total to 5.6" and the 2-day storm total to 9.3". I'm only 1.1" away from my goal. Maybe by overnight one more good band comes through. Temp now holding at 30.6 degrees.

Here in Carlisle at 9:00pm it continues to snow lightly to occasionally moderately. During the past 2 hours only an additional 0.3" of snow has accumulated. That brings today's total to 5.5" and the 2-day storm total to 9.2". Temp continues to rise very slowly, but is again at the high of the day at 30.7 degrees. As I write this I am literally on the northwest fringe of the dry slot. I guess we'll see what happens over the next few hours. Maybe it fills back in some?

Congrats! You broke a foot (haha).

Thank you for explaining. So we go back to the previous thread right now if we're discussing anything beyond this storm?

Thanks. I would think based off of the snow map that way more than 1" of liquid would be there unless there is another storm after that one. The map that was posted went out 10 days and was the total snow over the 240 hours beginning at 7:00am this morning. Your map only goes out 7 days. Hmmm

Here in Carlisle at 7:00pm it continues to snow moderately. During the past hour another 0.4" of snow had fallen. That brings today's total to 5.2" and the 2-day storm total to 8.9". Confidence is growing that I'll receive another 1.5" to just beat out the December storm. The temp continues to very slowly rise and is now at the high of the day at 29.8 degrees.

Maybe @Blizzard of 93 can produce a snow map that only contains the weekend storm. I'm thinking it might be closer to 24". If this morning's run projected 16" more snow for this storm, then it's around 24" for the next one.

Back at 6:00pm in Carlisle I had moderate to occasionally heavy snow. During the past hour I picked up another 0.6". That gives me a daily total of 4.8" and a storm total of 8.5". Temp not going anywhere and is 29.5 degrees. I might just make it to breaking my December storm. I need only 1.9" more to reach 10.4".

That's the total snow from 12Z today through next 10 days. Extrapolating it looks like it's giving us all about 20" from the weekend storm. Then the arctic air arrives.

Here in Carlisle at 5:00pm it is currently snowing moderately. Much of the previous hour had only light snow. It has just increased to moderate over the past 15 minutes. New snowfall during the past hour measures 0.2". That gives me 4.2" for my daily total and a storm total of 7.9". I just realized that my daily total was missing 0.3" from before I cleared the board this morning. The storm total is and has been correct. Current temp is 29.1 degrees.

Well that is certainly encouraging news. I just went and checked for my exact location on pivotal and it says I get 4" more between now and overnight.

At 4:00pm here in Carlisle it is snowing light to moderately. The majority of this previous hour had heavy snow. I picked up an additional 1.1" of new snow giving me a daily total of 3.7" and a storm total of 7.7". Looks like I'll definitely reach 8". I was hoping to at least tie my December storm of 10.3". We'll see what happens. If it keeps snowing throughout the night maybe I can pick up another 2.6". Congrats to all the double-digit winners out there both north and south!

Latest NWS forecast has it snowing until 10:00am tomorrow morning. They slowly keep pushing back the end of the storm...lol.

In Carlisle (back at 4:00) it was snowing heavily...heaviest of the entire storm thus far. During the past hour I picked up an additional 0.9". That gives me a daily total of 2.6" and a storm total of 6.6". Temp is 28.6 degrees. Looks absolutely beautiful out there!! May it continue!

Heavy, heavy, heavy. YAY Update to come in about 10 minutes.

Congrats! Your next post will be # 1000!! That's an amazing looking radar. I'm now back to heavy, in fact it's now the heaviest rate of the entire storm.

That's incredible. I can't imagine how sleet is making its way that far inland. BTW over the past 10 minutes I've been ramping back up again and am almost approaching moderate with average flakes.

Allentown is about to be crushed.