CarlislePaWx

Eastern PA is close to 2'. But, MDT gets 16" and YOU get 18-20" while I get only 8"...lol. The map is very weird with distribution. But, you also missed 25" in central Lebanon County.

Prior snow map was the control. Here's the mean:

from our friends down in DC...

@Voyager Thanks for the video. I happened to tune in about 1 minute before that several miles long train passed by. Meanwhile the wet snow kept changing intensity with even some heavy rates briefly. I took a look at your Flagstaff video also. Flagstaff averages over 100 inches of snow per season, up at 7000+ feet elevation. I visited Flagstaff back in the mid 90's. Drove up from Kingman.

I will record 0.1" of snow today (maybe more if I get more sleet) because that heavy sleet shower easily measured more than a trace. I think most everyone around here knows that the NWS treats sleet the same as snow for measuring purposes.

I have a small metal ruler that I can use for anything up to 6". After that I switch to my 1 meter snow stick (NWS approved because I got it from them). The rulers are ticked down to 0.1" increments. Once I have more than 0.05" it goes from a trace up to 0.1". A trace is anything from flurries that amount to nothing on the ground, on up to a literal dusting.

It just started pouring sleet mixed with a little freezing rain. A heavy sleet shower for several minutes. Enough to hear a good crunch walking on it. Temp 30.0 and slowly rising. Final snowfall was 0.2" which melted down to 0.06". A little bit of sleet made it into the gauge before I brought it inside which might be slightly inflating the liquid equivalent. For the time being the snow that fell last night is still keeping the ground white.

Well, I went outside again to look at my snowboard and to my amazement another 0.1" had fallen over the past 2 hours! (lol). I'm probably not going to know if any more falls before the mix since any sleet that falls will compact the tiny amount of snow. But, it's nice to see the ground "white" maybe for the next 12 hours before it melts. Temp has dropped almost 0.5 degree over the past hour and is now at its low of 28.8 degrees.

I wish I could offer you some hope but after barely a ground-whitening 0.1" it's already coming to an end. I still have a fine mist of snow falling but nothing that will add to the total. Oh well, here's hoping for this Sunday. I don't understand how the HRRR can be so wrong when it's only going out less than 6 hours? It flat-out busted!

You really have to love the entire run of the 18Z GFS. There appears to be at least 3 more snowfalls in the second half of the run. The best news really is that a few days ago the model had a significant warmup hitting us after Feb 1st. Now it has totally changed with the majority of the 15 days cold. The coldest air of the season with 850's around -20C arrive here on D14, Feb 8th. Have to say a very encouraging run overall.

Yes, compared to 18Z, snowfall on both NAMS increased on 0Z.

Gotta love the 3K NAM the past two cycles giving 3-4" MDT area with a bit more m-d counties. 12K cut totals in half.

I'd like to but the last 3 runs of the GFS went from getting 24" to 20" to 8". Don't get me wrong, I'd be very happy with 8. However the other major models all give us less. Canadian gives us around 4" and the Euro gives 1" (suppressed). DC went from 28" to 24" to 2.4" on GFS. Ouch!! As it stands now for Monday/Tuesday I'm not expecting more than 3". However, for the late week storm we're still 110 hours away and much could happen in either direction. As usual, I'll be happy with 2" (on storm #1) which is enough to just cover up the grass.

Total for both events:

OMG! 18" of snow from the SECOND storm (Cumberland Cty). 24" total for the 2 events!! I'm about to faint...lol.

Shall I say it? ... It's the NAM out at 84. But I can enjoy it for a little while. Boy what a change from the 18Z run.

0Z NAM = Jackpot SC PA! More than double total snow vs 18Z.

For the next six hours the GFS has me as the southern jackpot for the next storm. Both 10:1 and Kuchera give me 10", which would be fascinating if that happened because that's the same amount I had for the December storm. Other interesting thing is that the duration of the storm is almost 36 hours. It begins around 7:00pm Monday afternoon and doesn't stop until 1:00am Wednesday morning although the bulk of it falls during the first 24 hours. I like storms that last for 24+ hours since that doesn't happen all that frequently.

At least for the first storm, having a second one coming up also helps minimize the post-storm depression...that is as long as there IS a second storm.

A couple of days ago I woke up to about 0.2" of snow that unexpectedly fell over night. Funny thing is I don't remember which day that was precisely. It was close to the end of the year, but before the 31st. Any idea what day that might have been? Adding in that 0.2" plus the 0.1" from today, that brings my seasonal total to 11.0". (You can see it down at the bottom of my signature.) I was intending to update that prior tiny coating but forgot to, and now I don't remember the day.

Well, so much for the 2 to 3 inches of snow. Those wet snow bombs (which did look amazing) only lasted for maybe 15 minutes tops. It was enough to accumulate about 0.1" with a tiny white coating. Then, it stopped. Then, the rain came back and deposited about another 0.07" of pure liquid. On to the next one.

Transition finally underway here, but not before recording 0.25" of pure rain. It's now sleeting with a coating on the ground and snowflakes are beginning to mix in and increase. Nearly every model has me receiving 2" with outside chance of 3" on a few of them. Should be a fun afternoon of observing. Good luck to all. Oh, forgot to mention it's 32.9 degrees here now. Edit--flakes are quickly increasing in quantity and size. Wet snow bombs!

Happy New Year all! It took a while to begin to accrue, however now with the sun's effects gone my trees have all been rapidly ice-ing up. Liquid wise I have about 0.2" for the entire event so far. Ice accrual-wise I now have between 0.05" and 0.10". This is more than NWS forecasted for me with this morning's update. Last night they had two periods where up to 0.10" of ice could accrue. My temperature has been around 31.3 to 31.5 the entire event. Right now I'm at 31.6 degrees with steady light freezing rain to almost moderate. Nothing so far on sidewalks and roads and I'm not expecting anything there anyway.

Quick review from 12Z GFS & NAM. GFS has total qpf for the late Thursday through Friday evening of 0.85". Of that, it shows almost a perfect 50/50 split with 0.39" of freezing rain falling between Fri 12Z and 18Z and a temp of 30 to 31 degrees. Then in the next six hours it shows 0.46" of rain with early temp of 33, rising to 36 by 0Z Sat. NAM has total qpf of about 0.5" through 0Z Sat and is 3 to 6 hours slower with the whole event. It gives 0.2" of freezing rain mainly between 18Z and 21Z Friday and a temp of 31 to 32, followed by 0.3" of rain with a temp of 33 degrees at the end of the run 0Z Sat. It looks like there might be another period of rain between 0Z Sat and 6Z Sat, but probably no more than an additional 0.1". So, both models are showing an ice storm to ring in the new year during the morning into the afternoon Friday. I'm sure it will change, of course, but I thought I'd throw in my 2 cents of analysis since I had nothing better to do...lol.

One model run later, the 12z run gives the qpf in many spots a 30 to 40% haircut.