CarlislePaWx

From what I'm seeing GFS says 6" from the primary, and that's all by 7:00pm Sunday evening. Then there's 0.2" of ZR, then a whopping 2" more from the coastal/back around.

Well, somewhat encouraging is that NWS has dropped any mention of a mix/zr and now is all snow start to finish. They also lowered the high temp on Monday from 36 to 34. I predict that temp will keep going down and will remain below 32 for the high temp on Monday.

You mean the GFS is moving towards the Euro solution, or the GFS is looking just like its previous run?

This is unbelievable if it plays out with this long duration. It starts snowing at 7:00AM Sunday morning and doesn't end until 12:00PM on TUESDAY! Folks...that's 53 hours. I think the longest storm of my life was 36 hours in January 1996. I've never seen anything last this long. WOW. Oh yeah, the 14" of snow is pretty nice too...lol.

Haha. That total forecast comes to a range of 112-144" in less than 72 hours!

Eastern PA is close to 2'. But, MDT gets 16" and YOU get 18-20" while I get only 8"...lol. The map is very weird with distribution. But, you also missed 25" in central Lebanon County.

Prior snow map was the control. Here's the mean:

from our friends down in DC...

@Voyager Thanks for the video. I happened to tune in about 1 minute before that several miles long train passed by. Meanwhile the wet snow kept changing intensity with even some heavy rates briefly. I took a look at your Flagstaff video also. Flagstaff averages over 100 inches of snow per season, up at 7000+ feet elevation. I visited Flagstaff back in the mid 90's. Drove up from Kingman.

I will record 0.1" of snow today (maybe more if I get more sleet) because that heavy sleet shower easily measured more than a trace. I think most everyone around here knows that the NWS treats sleet the same as snow for measuring purposes.

I have a small metal ruler that I can use for anything up to 6". After that I switch to my 1 meter snow stick (NWS approved because I got it from them). The rulers are ticked down to 0.1" increments. Once I have more than 0.05" it goes from a trace up to 0.1". A trace is anything from flurries that amount to nothing on the ground, on up to a literal dusting.

It just started pouring sleet mixed with a little freezing rain. A heavy sleet shower for several minutes. Enough to hear a good crunch walking on it. Temp 30.0 and slowly rising. Final snowfall was 0.2" which melted down to 0.06". A little bit of sleet made it into the gauge before I brought it inside which might be slightly inflating the liquid equivalent. For the time being the snow that fell last night is still keeping the ground white.

Well, I went outside again to look at my snowboard and to my amazement another 0.1" had fallen over the past 2 hours! (lol). I'm probably not going to know if any more falls before the mix since any sleet that falls will compact the tiny amount of snow. But, it's nice to see the ground "white" maybe for the next 12 hours before it melts. Temp has dropped almost 0.5 degree over the past hour and is now at its low of 28.8 degrees.

I wish I could offer you some hope but after barely a ground-whitening 0.1" it's already coming to an end. I still have a fine mist of snow falling but nothing that will add to the total. Oh well, here's hoping for this Sunday. I don't understand how the HRRR can be so wrong when it's only going out less than 6 hours? It flat-out busted!

You really have to love the entire run of the 18Z GFS. There appears to be at least 3 more snowfalls in the second half of the run. The best news really is that a few days ago the model had a significant warmup hitting us after Feb 1st. Now it has totally changed with the majority of the 15 days cold. The coldest air of the season with 850's around -20C arrive here on D14, Feb 8th. Have to say a very encouraging run overall.

Yes, compared to 18Z, snowfall on both NAMS increased on 0Z.

Gotta love the 3K NAM the past two cycles giving 3-4" MDT area with a bit more m-d counties. 12K cut totals in half.

I'd like to but the last 3 runs of the GFS went from getting 24" to 20" to 8". Don't get me wrong, I'd be very happy with 8. However the other major models all give us less. Canadian gives us around 4" and the Euro gives 1" (suppressed). DC went from 28" to 24" to 2.4" on GFS. Ouch!! As it stands now for Monday/Tuesday I'm not expecting more than 3". However, for the late week storm we're still 110 hours away and much could happen in either direction. As usual, I'll be happy with 2" (on storm #1) which is enough to just cover up the grass.

Total for both events:

OMG! 18" of snow from the SECOND storm (Cumberland Cty). 24" total for the 2 events!! I'm about to faint...lol.

Shall I say it? ... It's the NAM out at 84. But I can enjoy it for a little while. Boy what a change from the 18Z run.

0Z NAM = Jackpot SC PA! More than double total snow vs 18Z.

For the next six hours the GFS has me as the southern jackpot for the next storm. Both 10:1 and Kuchera give me 10", which would be fascinating if that happened because that's the same amount I had for the December storm. Other interesting thing is that the duration of the storm is almost 36 hours. It begins around 7:00pm Monday afternoon and doesn't stop until 1:00am Wednesday morning although the bulk of it falls during the first 24 hours. I like storms that last for 24+ hours since that doesn't happen all that frequently.

At least for the first storm, having a second one coming up also helps minimize the post-storm depression...that is as long as there IS a second storm.

A couple of days ago I woke up to about 0.2" of snow that unexpectedly fell over night. Funny thing is I don't remember which day that was precisely. It was close to the end of the year, but before the 31st. Any idea what day that might have been? Adding in that 0.2" plus the 0.1" from today, that brings my seasonal total to 11.0". (You can see it down at the bottom of my signature.) I was intending to update that prior tiny coating but forgot to, and now I don't remember the day.