CarlislePaWx

I'm losing hope for seeing any flakes tonight. Winds just picked up and temp is beginning to fall as the last good slug of precip is bearing down. Temp 43.3. Looking at the radar it looks like precip is going to end before it's cold enough for the change. But it will be close. Will keep an eye out as I see the back edge of precip approaching. I'll hold out some hope that there'll be a good snow shower from instability during the late morning tomorrow. This setup I think is fairly similar to 1977 with upstate NY into New England getting a pretty good snow. Edit>>Temp dropping pretty quickly now 42.8, down 3 degrees in the past 10 minutes.

Looks like you're completely out of the precip. Southern edge is here in Cumberland county. I've had on and off light rain since this morning and have picked up 0.26" so far.

How great to see a map that shows off my reminiscing from 2 days ago! There's the trace of snow over northern NJ which fell during the afternoon of May 9th. I had no idea there was a huge snow accumulation in central Mass from this event, but I do know it was super cold for May. The timing looks great from the NAM for picking up maybe more than a trace since some of it looks to fall after sunset Friday evening. Thanks for the heads up and this map!!

Seeing the forecast maps for later next weekend and having them show accumulating snow for parts of the LSV would almost have to be unprecedented for so late in the season. I'm dumbfounded over the strength of the perfect winter weather pattern that refused to show itself throughout this past winter season. I'm reminiscing again. I'm going back in time to the absolute latest date I ever witnessed snowflakes flying in the air. It's easy to remember since I was a senior in high school and only 5 weeks from graduating. The year...1977. The month...May. I remembered that the snow came right after Mother's Day. Before checking the calendar I figured Mother's Day had to have been very early. After checking, I was correct. Mother's Day was the earliest it can ever be, May 8th. I remember thinking back that Accuweather was talking about an exceptionally cold airmass would be invading all of the northeast following a strong cold front that would pass through the area during Sunday evening. It would be a cold and blustery day following on Monday. So, the date was Monday, May 9th, 1977. I was sitting in my classroom around 2:00 or so in the afternoon. The skies darkened considerably while the winds were blowing. And then it happened. Snowflakes began falling and flying through the air. I don't think it ever reached squall strength. But, for a period of time I witnessed something I had never seen before nor have ever seen since....snow in the month of May in northern New Jersey. Will we see a Mother's Day repeat 43 years later??

It looks like the back edge of the rain is about 15 minutes away from me now. If I don't record any more, my "official" total here will be 3.08" !!! It's plenty wet here but my apartment complex has many water ravines so the one in front of my place just has a small pond of water in it. Lots of muddy looking lawn, however. BTW, my total rainfall for April is 6.45". Today's rainfall doubled our previous total through yesterday.

Well, at exactly 5:13pm EDT I hit 3.00" for the storm total. Really didn't think I was going to make it, but the light rain just kept on going at about 0.06"/hr and just managed to bring me across the finish line...lol. We don't get many 3"+ days around here during the course of the year barring a tropical system. Looks like maybe a few more hundredths left in the atmosphere based on latest radar. What a day, indeed. Wonder how much MDT will end up with?

The rainfall rate is running out of steam here despite how it appears on radar. I'd say I only have about a 20% chance to cross the 3.00" finish line. Storm total now at 2.82" with light rain continuing. Temp steady at 59.0 degrees.

It's like a roller coaster here. Under this heavy band the winds have gone back to West and the temp just dropped 3 degrees back down to 56 again. Heavy rain and fog is back with 2.68" total. Fascinating!

Another heavy band about to bear down here. Meanwhile the winds have shifted back to the SE again and picked up to 5-10 mph. This has caused the temp to rise again, and it's back up to 59.0! Storm total 2.59". Fog is gone. Very interesting all these micro changes going on. Western edge still 75 miles away out by MAG. Might reach 3" by 4:00pm at this rate.

2.55". No change. Think 3" good possibility here. Temp ticked up a tad to 56.3. Winds have dropped off significantly, now W less than 5 mph.

Pourrrrrrrriiiiiiiiiing with fog too now. 2.33". Temp 55.4.

Absolutely pouring here still. Storm total now up to 2.10". Temp continues to slowly fall, now 55.2 degrees. WSW winds 5-10 mph. No more easterly component here.

Interesting sudden change here. Heavy rain continues with nearly 0.4" more in the past hour...total up to 1.87". But, the wind direction changed suddenly from SE to WSW. At the same time the temp dropped four degrees to 56.

Well, guys, the fire hose has been spraying heavy rain over me all morning. Just hit the 1.50" mark with more to come. Can't believe there's been almost nothing just 50 miles east of here. Temp 60 degrees.

I don't see severe flooding as being possible unless we get 2" more than expected. Yesterdays' expectation for the Susquehanna was for at worst moderate flooding. You can see that most of us are forecast to receive 2" to 2.5". If that is the total amount I think flooding of streams/creeks remains no worse than moderate. I'd be anticipating minor flooding as most likely if totals don't exceed 2.5". 70.2 degrees here with filtered sunshine and an easterly wind of about 10 mph.

Last night's forecast for me was half to three quarters today and then a tenth to a quarter tonight. If we say that 6:00 pm (it's 5:51 now) is the end of the today segment, then my 0.66" total so far is right on schedule. Plus, looking at the radar right now it looks like the steadiest period of rain has just begun. I could easily see me collecting another 0.3" by tomorrow morning. So my zone/grid forecast appears to be right on the money.

Thank you, MAG for clarifying this! What you are saying makes a lot more sense, and at least it provides a way to reach Green a lot sooner than I first feared. Cumberland's new cases per day has averaged less than 10 over the past 14 days. Does that mean we can go straight to Green on May 8th? I'm not sure I saw the criteria for progressing from Yellow to Green. Sorry to all about misinterpreting this! Edit:>>I just got the exact figures for Cumberland. For the 14-day period from April 9 to April 22 the total new cases was 114, which is an average of 8.5 new cases per day. But we have to get to May 8th and then look at the preceding 14 days, so we aren't even at the beginning of the look-back period, which won't start until this Saturday. Yesterday's new cases for Cumberland was 13 from the preceding day. So at this present moment we are exceeding the 127 threshold. So, you're right, MAG, we are close to a relaxation but not there yet. I just re-read the news article from the Governor's plan. I couldn't find any specifics as to what criteria will determine moving from Yellow to Green. It looks like breaking below the 127 threshold would be enough to get us out of Red and into Yellow. I can't tell if there is any published info on how we get from Yellow to Green. If anybody finds or has those specifics please post them here. Thank you!!

Guys...I have refrained from all the virus discussion just so I can maintain my sanity. I have an anxiety disorder (take meds) and I don't have to tell you that without my beloved gym 6 days/week as was my normal routine, it's becoming more challenging. I'm commenting tonight because Governor Wolf just held his news conference where he laid out his plans for reopening the state. IT'S NOT GOOD! For us along and east of the Susquehanna, unless the positive case counts does an immediate about-face in the next few days there is no way our area will reopen at all on May 8th. To be specific, he's doing it by county prevalence. He says that any county must be at a level of 50 positive cases per 100,000 population count or under for 14 consecutive days before any relaxation of anything will commence! I checked, the population of Cumberland county is roughly 200,000. The positive cases today came in at 202. That's easy math. That's a ratio of 100 cases per 100,000 population count. That means that our county is more than twice the level he has outlined in order to have any reopening of any businesses. I haven't checked but I'd be willing to bet Lancaster county's ratio is worse than 2:1. I am one of the lucky ones on here. I retired 2 years ago and don't have a job to worry about. My wife works from home full time in a job that is unaffected by the pandemic. We sold our home last October and moved into an apartment in November. We had planned on waiting until Feb or Mar to put the house up, but we changed our minds because of how hot the market was at the time. Please don't take what I'm saying the wrong way. I pray for all of you whose jobs/livelihoods have been horribly impacted. I'm just fortunate to be a little older than most of you. I'll continue to pray for all of us and for our own health for that matter. I'm in an at-risk category being 60 and having asthma and a predisposition to bronchitis. So, I pretty much do have to stay at home as much as I can. But, I want my gym back!!!!! By the way, it even looks like the first level of reopening from Gov Wolf does not include gyms. Maybe by August before we reach level green? Edit:>>I went ahead and did Lancaster county. You don't want to know. It's four times worse than Cumberland county. Population is 545,000 and positive case count as of today (4/22) is 1,326 which gives a ratio of about four times worse than Cumberland county. In decimal format we need a value of 0.0005 or less after you divide the positive cases by the population. Cumberland is 0.001 (twice the threshold) and Lancaster is 0.0026 (four times the threshold).

Boy, what an unexpected snow show! 25 minutes of snow with almost 20 mins continuous heavy and large flakes! It's winding down now and the sky is brightening. Temp bottomed out at 32.7. Mulch was maybe about 50% covered in white. No official measurement other than a trace. But still...I had no idea this was even possible. I thought tomorrow morning was the snow possibility. Historically speaking, this reminds me of a day in late April, 1986, in Philadelphia. I was finishing up my last month of Optometry school and was living on campus. It was around the 25th of April. It ended up snowing nearly the entire day, non-stop. It didn't accumulate during the daytime. But, after sunset it continued throughout the evening and we ended up with 2" of snow on the grass when it ended later that evening. So, it can snow in late April and accumulate. But, it's pretty rare.

Started snowing here about 15 mins ago and is getting progressively heavier...quite the surprise to see. Vsby continues to drop...easily under a mile now. Temp down to 36. Edit>>2 mins later down to 35. No accum anywhere...(yet). Edit again>>5 mins later (9:23) down to 34. Waiting to see signs of white on mulch. Would love to get 0.1" to add to record books. Hasn't snowed this hard since January! lol Edit (9:26)>>Heavy snow...large flakes...temp 33.6 and mulch starting to turn white! Edit (9:31)>>Heavy snow continues. What a show out there. Temp down to 33.1. Mulch looking whiter and a few tiny spots of white on grass too. Vsby < 0.5 mi.

Making progress. Still sunny. Temp up to 70.7. Just had a wind gust WSW to 33. So, it's going up.

Sun shining brightly here now with large patch of blue sky overhead. Chance to try and warm back up a bit, although only 69.4, so haven't broken 70 yet. When that storm came through I had 0.03" of rain and a wind gust to 5 mph...LOL. Interestingly, the winds have now picked up substantially, out of the WSW 15 gusting to 25. Pressure holding steady at 29.40".

The northern part of that severe storm (that was headed for central cumberland) is losing its severity rapidly so I'm not expecting more than some heavy rain and brief winds (for now). Looks like severe part is holding together south of me heading through Adams on towards York. Another sub-1000 pressure day here, down to 995mb. Temp 69.6 after hitting 70.0 about half hour ago (1:00pm).

Rain came in just like a snow squall. Winds gusted to 28 and torrential rain with low visibility. Picked up 0.16" in less than 10 minutes. Just as fast as it came in, it left and there are breaks in the clouds. But, radar shows a second line of storms coming in about 30 minutes. That second line is probably the front since my pressure is just steady at 29.30".

And once again we have dropped below 1000mb for pressure as the strong cold front approaches. As of this writing at 10:30am I'm down to 992mb or 29.29". Get ready for the winds that will flood into here following the frontal passage. It will definitely feel like early March instead of early April.