CarlislePaWx

Boy, the HRRR has the low literally going over Cape May and riding right up the coastline to around Long Beach Island, then suddenly exiting stage right.

At 4:00pm the heavy snow has just arrived within the past 10 minutes and it looks like it means business! During the past hour I picked up an additional 1.0" giving me a storm total of 2.8". Temp 23.4 / 21.2. Hopefully this keeps up as per SPC earlier.

At 3:00pm in Carlisle it continues to snow moderately. I have picked up an additional 0.7" in the past hour for a storm total of 1.8". Temperature 23.7 / 21.2. During this next hour the real fun should start to begin.

At 2:00pm I have picked up an additional 0.4" in the past hour and have a storm total of 1.1". During the past 15 minutes the rate has picked up noticeably but with fine flakes I would just call it a "heavy" light. The increased rate has caused my temp to drop a degree, now down to 24.3 degrees with a dew point of 21.4. As others have said, we're only about an hour away from the start of the heavy snow with inch per hour rates.

At 1:00pm I have measured 0.7" total over the past 3 hours...lol. Temp 25/22. Steady light snow with fine flakes. Definitely not accumulating quickly. Looking at the latest HRRR and going through it hour by hour it looks like my area reaches the 1.5" mark within the next 2 hours by 3:00. Then the fun begins with 1.0"/hour or more rates through 9:00pm. The heaviest hour is between 8:00 and 9:00 when 2.4" falls. At the end of the storm at 4:00am I have between 18 and 19". The sleet line just barely makes it up to me around 9:00pm and sticks around for an hour or so, then back to snow.

Just crossing over into moderate snow with larger flakes that will ramp up the accumulations. Officially have 0.1"! 26/21. I should be able to wetbulb down to 25 before noon.

BTW, I forgot to say that I'm rooting for you to minimize any mixing and to reach the high end of Horst's range of 12" for you!

Thanks! We'll see what happens. I think I'm hoping to hit 18", but who knows. Last night NWS had me 15-25", now they have me 14-22" ... I'm worried...lol.

Steady light snow now falling. Beginning to whiten the ground already! Still 27/18.

At 10:17am the first flakes are beginning to appear! 27/18.

Good morning all! I just caught up by reading 70 posts from midnight last night to the present. I must say, it is very exciting to see so many of us cashing in this time as well as so many folks participating in our thread. Creates a great sense of community. I'm so glad I'm retired now and can totally enjoy the storm from start to finish. My snowboard is all set along with my clear-vue gauge so I can measure liquid equivalents. One thing I noticed about the Euro is that it cut back the total qpf substantially from many of its prior runs at least for around MDT. Yesterday it was putting out 2.2" while this morning it's down to 1.4". On the other hand it looks like the GFS has traded places with the Euro and has bumped up its total storm qpf. Regardless, I look forward to posting all my measurements today and tonight. Should we consider creating a separate obs thread for this storm? We have done that in the past with big storms. Just a thought. I can just keep posting here as well. Good luck to all and stay safe!

During the Jan 2016 storm, Cumberland County was fortunate to remain under the "Death Band" for 3 hours. The snow rates during that period were 3.5" / hour. I got 10" in like 3 hours. Ended up with 35" total in the end. Biggest storm of my life. You gotta like this run for Lanco!

I don't think it's sleet. I looked at p-type and it showed it was snow. But, you never know.

3k NAM has 45-50 dbz reflectivity over Cumberland county for 3 hours between 0Z and 3Z! That's like 4"/hr rates. 22" total snow, 26" Kuchera total. WOW

The Dynamic Duo is back??

It looks worse than it is. The main precip for you and me is modeled to be winding down substantially by 3-4am. When the snow gets really light there sometimes can be freezing rain/drizzle mixed in. I would say 99% of the entire event is all snow for both of us. I also have no idea why they are calling heavy snow, snow showers. I can almost guarantee you that once they issue the winter storm warning tomorrow the verbiage will have just become "snow".

Nice. Basically the same here...light snow continues, 32.7 degrees with 0.3". Nice solid whitening (that doesn't mean the grass has disappeared).

By the way, I forgot to mention that I recorded 0.48" of rain before the changeover. Back around 5am I woke up hearing heavy rain.

Wow. I haven't seen the probability maps. Cumberland county was the epicenter of the Jan 2016 storm. I got 35" out of that one. Temp 32.7 with a good moderate snow falling as more areas are turning white.

Finally all snow here and approaching moderate intensity. Temp 32.9 degrees. Just beginning to whiten the ground and mulch. Looks nice.

Incredible...both 18Z Nam's have my snowfall at 5" again...second time in a row. All the globals had given up on tomorrow with none of them having more than 1" in the LSV. Shouldn't we expect the NAM to be the better model 24 hours out??

Canadian---10:1 first map, Kuchera second map. It gives all of us less than 1" with tomorrow, so the storm total is pretty much all from Wednesday-Thursday

Wow...both NAM's give me 5" of snow tomorrow. Will it come to fruition is the question?

Yesterday I mentioned Larry Cosgrove's winter forecast which contains a bunch of analogs of waning Nina's through winter. He gave double weight to several years which included 1995-96. Back in December of '95 I still lived in northern NJ. I distinctly remember a significant snowstorm just a week before Christmas. Actually, it was December 19th and I measured 13" from that storm. It was very cold and that kept a good chunk of the snowfall still around when the blockbuster January 6th storm hit. That winter the snow started falling in November and didn't stop until the middle of April! I measured 92" total snow for that record season which still stands for me as the greatest snow season of my life. I just think it's interesting to watch things unfold in the coming weeks.

You appear to be the big winner with 2-storm total of 24". I only get 18"...lol.