CarlislePaWx

It's finally restarting here. Radar echoes are about 2 miles south of me so I expect the intensity to ramp up shortly. No additional accumulation since my 1:00 ob which was 0.8". Temp has dropped from the high of the day which was 28.0 degrees, and now is 27.3 degrees. I see NWS has dropped me from 13" to 9". I still think the former is doable. We'll see.

At 1:00 with cloudy skies and a few occasional flurries my temperature is 28.0 degrees with a dew point of 23.9 degrees. Since 10:30 I have recorded an additional 0.2" for a storm total so far of 0.8". I had a brief, 10 minute long period of moderate snow with good size flakes. That's where the 0.2" came from. Radar continues to show a snow hole remaining over the western 2/3rds of Cumberland County. I'm still waiting for the southern edge which is down along the Adams/York County lines to move north and fill in. Hopefully in the next hour it starts back up in earnest.

Thanks @Blizzard of 93. I can take 13" up to possibly 19". For me here it started snowing around 9:15 and was almost a heavy fine flakes. That lasted about an hour and then it nearly stopped. I picked up 0.6" so far. It is just now starting to snow lightly once again. The big show is really tomorrow. We shouldn't be judging tomorrow's outcome with today's reality. No one can be certain where the CCB chooses to set up. If that low is really only 50 miles off of Ocean City that would strongly argue the CCB setting up somewhere in central and or eastern PA. Oh, I forgot to mention my temp is 26.6 with dew point of 23.0 as of 11:20am.

My earlier comment was really more of an observation rather than personal criticism. And I'm definitely not one to ruffle feathers. @Itstrainingtimeyou are totally correct and I have no problems with your reply to me. After the event is over and we have all the final measurements I would love to ask Tom about his forecast reasoning one way or the other.

Honestly, the ONLY model currently showing anything as low as what he has on that map is the 0z 3K NAM. It's as if he doesn't think we'll get anything from the coastal out this way.

When you say bust potential are you referring to them saying that the amounts could be much higher or much lower than their current forecasted amounts?

Well well well...Do I win the best pre-storm liquid total with my 1.93"??

Haha. Hey I subtracted 15" of snow from the 40" the Canadian gave this afternoon, so my guess seems reasonable.

25.7" of snow from 1.93" of liquid.

Right in the bullseye yet again. 23" when the storm ends 7:00AM Tuesday. WOW.

Solid run with a lot more solid coverage including up to Williamsport. 14" for me...I'll take it!

Man, I'm getting tired of being the bullseye. PS...I can see that several of us including @Blizzard of 93, @sauss06, and @canderson are also in it with me, and maybe also @Cashtown_Coop.

I haven't looked at the surface maps but judging by the clown maps it appears that only east-central NJ gets into the CCB. I don't think any part of PA gets into it.

13" (Kuchera) or 11" (10 to 1) by 1:00am Tuesday at end of run. I think it's done by then over us. Right inside Mag's 8-14" range.

Nice so far. 9" by 7:00AM Monday. I think that's before the coastal?

500 and 850 lows are over southern ohio at 57.

Looks like 50/50.

9 to 11" all of Lanco.

Oops, more came into Tuesday. Up to 14" now.

I'm happy too! 10" same as December storm.

Haha. Records ARE made to be broken, right? No one ever said I had to wait 25 years to see it again.

Hahaha Joe! When I read that I thought about posting this >>>>>

Boy what an image to wake up to! Even zoomed in I can barely see that I appear to be in the bullseye with that purple color, which looks like it begins around 36"? Of course the very first storm this looks like is Jan 2016 where I received 35" which was the single biggest storm of my life. I know this is going to change! It's just nice to see that the north trend we all were expecting 48 hours ago when the bullseye was down in northern Virginia has materialized. Hard to believe this is Thursday and we have to wait until Sunday for it to begin.