CarlislePaWx

I'm focusing on Thursday's storm right now...and it's looking quite promising that many of us have a significant snowfall with 6-12" for almost all of our subforum. For this snow map, all the snow amounts on an arc from Altoona to State College to Williamsport to Scranton running south and east are all from the Thursday storm. It only goes over to rain for a few hours at the end early Friday when temps crawl up into the mid 30's. Also, looking at Tuesday's storm, any ice accumulations we see are all going to melt as temps shoot up into the low to mid 40's for a few hours Tuesday afternoon before retreating back down below freezing. Other good news is that temps are only in the low 20's during all of the snow portion of the storm and then begin to rise as the transition to sleet, freezing rain and finally to rain takes place overnight into Friday morning. Temps Friday only peak in the mid 30's before crashing back down below freezing later Friday and then remain below freezing continuously through to Monday afternoon. I'm letting myself get "a little excited" for this one for now.

Thursday's storm on the 18Z GFS is pretty depressing. No snow, a little sleet, a few tenths of freezing rain, then a lot of plain rain with temps shooting up to 50. Then what's left of the arctic air finally passes through here later Friday into next weekend, but by that time all our snow has washed away (especially LSV), and maybe even further north. I'd love to say that it's still 5 days away and there's plenty of time for it to change. But with the eastern side of the trough to our west I can see how the storm would come up west of PA. I'm not giving up just yet.

Depending on how far below freezing the rain falls dictates how fast the accrual process is. Currently, with MDT forecast to get 0.87" of freezing rain, it is highly unlikely that all of that rain ends up accruing. If the temp is 30 you won't get anywhere near 0.87" of accrual. I have no idea how cold it would have to be to even reach 0.50" of accretion. 25 degrees? 20 degrees? Actually, another factor affecting accretion would be the intensity of the rain. Light rain has a much higher chance to accrue versus moderate or heavy rain.

Thanks much for replying. I'll be watching for it to come back.

I'm bummed. It looks like sometime this afternoon Pivotal Weather took away the ability to hover over a graphical spot on a map and have its value displayed. That's true for all the maps as far as I can tell. Obviously I can still get approximations since the MDT value is always plotted. But I'm so used to getting the exact temperature or qpf or snowfall. It was there this morning but when I got back late this afternoon it was gone. Does this mean that I have to subscribe in order to get that feature restored? They offer a month-to-month subscription for $6.99 / month. I certainly wouldn't mind paying for Feb and March. They add some nice features in like zoomed in state level graphics and other stuff. Are any others experiencing this same issue (with Pivotal Maps)?

Good morning all. I just finished catching up to the 40 messages waiting for me. Encouraged by the GFS's return to a colder solution. As for me and this current storm I once again ended up with considerably less than was forecasted. Overnight (from midnight to the present) I only picked up an additional 0.9" of snow. That gives me a storm total of 1.9". Last night's 0Z GFS had me getting 8". Even the NWS forecast on the low side was for 3". I'm not complaining, however since more is just around the corner. Everything is covered up again in the areas that were bare yesterday. My back yard faces north so I get to look out and enjoy total snow cover. Front faces south and was getting barer. Back to white out there again.. I particularly like seeing snow on all the trees, especially the evergreens. Oh yeah, the temperature has remained at 27 degrees since midnight and has not budged. Currently it's 27.5.

Here in Carlisle, at midnight, it continues to snow moderately. Since the snow began back around 9:30pm I have recorded 1.0" of snow on the board so far. Temp holding now at 27.1 degrees with a dew point of 25.2 degrees. I'll be back in the morning with an update. Hopefully I'll be reporting more than an inch of additional snow. We'll see. Night all. Enjoy it while you can. We're going to suffer for a whole 48 hours before we see more fall again...lol.

This is snow to sleet and then heavy sleet, ending as sleet. There's obviously plenty of time for this to correct south, or get worse. Axis of heaviest snow is only 50-75 miles north of us. Another @Wmsptwx special. This would put them way over the top for climo for them.

If the 18Z GFS timing works out then it would be ending between 5 and 6am unless things have changed with the 0Z run. It's been moderate snow here the past 30 minutes with nice flakes accumulating about 0.5"/hr. That rate should increase over the next 2 hours. 0.3" on the board as of 10:30. Temp down to 27.5. Roads/Sidewalks now caving also. It's fun to stand under my street light and look straight up and get lost in all the flakes falling like a snow globe.

Haha. I was going to say wasn't it a little early to be throwing in the towel, especially when the border counties were forecast to get the highest amount? Happy to hear the report. Now send it my way!

Snow started about 30 minutes ago. Steady light snow and I just measured my first 0.1" of the event on my board. Street and sidewalks just wet still but grass also has a coating. I think the radar looks pretty good. There's an area of heavier rates out in the central mountains that appears to be headed east towards me. Temp slowly dropping and now at 28.0 degrees with a dew point of 24.4 degrees.

If you follow the GFS the real punch of the storm occurs between 3Z and 9Z. It gives me 4" between 3Z and 6Z which would be greater than 1"/hr snow rate. I'm hoping this one delivers the goods in full.

I read that discussion. The part you posted was actually written last night (where it says Tues PM Update) and not modified to reflect current forecasts. Sometimes seeing them do that drives me crazy. They write several paragraphs and then "recycle" them in future updates. I think they're just lazy at times.

10" - 11" for @Cashtown_Coop and @Bubbler86.

Uhhhh...the GFS now gives me 9" of snow by the end of Friday. That's quite a change!

Could it have been the winter of 1960-1961?

It looks like that band strengthened considerably over the past 30 minutes. It was weaker passing over me and delivered nothing...lol. Congrats to those east of the river.

Zilch for me here in Carlisle overnight / this morning. Just clouds. Temp 26.4. Hoping for some fun beginning tomorrow afternoon.

You need to subtract out whatever it's showing for tomorrow's event. I haven't looked at 18Z yet but 12Z gave MDT between 2 and 3". So that still leaves a foot for Thursday's storm! We appear to be smack dab in the center of the heaviest, which is encouraging.

You can say that again!

Unfortunately that was last night's 0Z Run. Here is the 12Z. It moved the heavy axis over 100 miles to the north. Congrats @Wmsptwx

Here in Carlisle at 11:00am it is snowing moderately, but with fine flakes and is no longer accumulating. During the past hour I picked up 0.2" of new snow giving me a storm total of 1.2". The temperature has risen to 33.1 which is causing snow on the board to compact. It does look very scenic out there, though.

Good morning all! Here in Carlisle at 10:00am it is snowing moderately, occasionally lightly. I have just recorded 1.0" of snow on the board. Temperature continues to slowly rise and is now 31.8 degrees. The rate is going to have to pick up for any more accumulating with the temp about to go above freezing. Loving the upcoming 2-week outlook. Incredibly wintery. So glad to see the Euro go colder for the Thursday storm. Hope that lasts.

Man, you've been the busy beaver this afternoon and evening, haven't you? As always I want to thank you both for the time you take to post those WB maps and also for your overflowing optimism. Keep it up! PS>>The 18Z GFS also showed amazing cold coming starting next weekend with a massive arctic front passing through here Saturday night. Temperatures start out in the mid 20's at midnight (sat) and fall off the cliff during the entire day Sunday with the LSV down into the positive single digits by Sunday evening, and even further down into the mid minus single digits by Monday morning. Nearly all of Ohio 12Z Monday are all -20 to -25 degrees, western PA is in the minus teens, and central/LSV are -3 to -8 degrees F. Baby, that's cold!

Man, what a run (18Z GFS) with the arctic onslaught. I'm guessing that must be the polar vortex finally dropping in on us? When I saw the LSV in a 480 thickness I knew this was serious cold. I've only witnessed a 480 thickness I think twice before in my life. Once was back in the 80s and once in the 90's. I don't think we've had that out here in the 20 years I've lived here. I'd love for one of the data guys to see when was the last time our region dropped to 480 thickness? MDT drops to -27C at 850 and we go below zero at the surface. Because of the snowpack there are a few nights that MDT drops to -11F! I certainly realize things could change concerning the polar air but that would be amazing since it immediately follows the more than 12" of snow that has just fallen. Exciting next few weeks for sure. Maybe Sunday's storm comes a little more north?