Central PA & The Fringes - February 2014 III

[NortheastPAWx]

My gut tells me the V-Day one is a coastal crusher, if anything. It's got that feeling.

[psuhoffman]

My gut tells me the V-Day one is a coastal crusher, if anything. It's got that feeling.

At this range anything is possible but the Euro and JMA are huge hits for central PA, and some of the analogs showing up like Feb 72 were good for the interior.  That low in the lakes and the trough axis would argue this might cut inland even...the GFS seems up to its usual southeast bias stuff to me. 

[JamieOber]

am19psu posted the Euro weeklies over on PhillyWx (including his comments): 

 

Week 1 2/10-2/16, Week 2 2/17-2/23, Week 3, 2/24-3/2, Week 4 3/3-3/9

PHL Temperature Anomalies
Week 1: -8 (sigh)
Week 2: -3
Week 3: 0 (almost -1)
Week 4: -1

General H5 Anomaly Pattern
Week 1: -WPO/+EPO/-AO/West -NAO
Week 2: +EPO/+NAO/-AO (lol, I can't even get a warm week out of that)
Week 3: +PNA/+NAO
Week 4: +PNA/+NAO

[psuhoffman]

a few decent solutions for sunday/monday showing up on the SREF, its at least worth watching.  Wouldnt take much to pop a few inches as the H5 energy comes right over us.

[dvdmgsr]

I did a pretty complete job removing all of the snow and ice from driveway and sidewalk yesterday, but the snow plow came through one last time just after I finished and was off to work.  Well, I kind of forgot about it, and there is a pretty large mass of now frozen solid snow/sleet/ice at the base of my driveway apron.  I can drive over it just fine, but I have a feeling it's going to be there until Easter.

[djr5001]

two things concern me about the storm potential for next week...

 

1) Similar to this weekend, there is a low pressure system modeled to be slamming into the west coast around the same time of our potential event... I do not have a ton of experience looking at how storm systems on west coast impact conditions downstream, but wonder if this weekend's system out west ultimately made the flow flatter out there and forced us to not have the phasing for a big storm this weekend without significant western ridging

 

2) I have noticed lately the models have been too strong with modeled high pressure systems in the 4-7 day range... at one point this area of high pressure set to move overhead early tomorrow was once modeled to be a 1036-1040mb high... now looks to end up about 10mb or so weaker... would a weaker high next week allow the system to have more speed and miss the phasing to slide off to the south and east?

 

I just feel that once again we have a more than favorable set up that one or two minor details can really blow it all up with several things needing to happen before a next potential big event...

 

Thoughts?

[psuhoffman]

I don't like the trends right now. The models seem to want to phase storms up at longer leads then as we get closer all the moving parts come into focus and they see its just not going to happen. The fast flow with too many vorts is the biggest problem to me. The northern stream needs to slow down and allow something to dig and amplify. All these vorts splitting energy and dampening each other out plus flattening the flow is no good.

[JamieOber]

Scoreboard as we enter the weekend's mere pittance of snowfall:

 

MDT

 

Feb snowfall to date: 7.1

Feb average snowfall to date: 2.5

% of average: 284%

Seasonal snowfall to date: 28.1

Seasonal average snowfall to date: 18.1

% of average: 155%

Overall seasonal average snowfall: 31.2

Percentage of overall average to date: 90%

 

IPT

 

Feb snowfall to date: 9.0

Feb average snowfall to date: 2.2

% of average: 409%

Seasonal snowfall to date: 33.2

Seasonal average snowfall to date: 21.4

% of average: 155%

Overall seasonal average snowfall: 36.0

Percentage of overall average to date: 92%

 

UNV

 

Feb snowfall to date: 7.5

Feb average snowfall to date: 2.8

% of average: 268%

Seasonal snowfall to date: 32.6

Seasonal average snowfall to date: 25.7

% of average: 127%

Overall seasonal average snowfall: 45.6

Percentage of overall average to date: 72%

 

Bonus:

 

If we were to get average snowfall rest of winter, we'd end up with: 

 

UNV: 52.6

IPT: 47.9

MDT: 41.2

 

If we kept the same rate above average snowfall as the rest of the winter, we'd end at: 

 

UNV: 57.9

IPT: 55.6

MDT: 48.6

[Superstorm93]

Beautiful morning here @ Millersville. Temp up to 28 

 

Thought I could walk through a cement snow pile in the parking lot while getting my morning coffee and almost fell face first. 

 

[Cashtown_Coop]

 

Scoreboard as we enter the weekend's mere pittance of snowfall:

 

 

Thanks for the info!   I'm currently at 29.5" ytd and would love to end the season in the 40" range. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Those stats are factual proof that this winter has been a very good one thus far...even in IPT.

As far as next week, we will have cold air to our north and moisture streaming up from the south. Let's see what happens. Sooner or later one of these shortwaves should provide something...right?

[Rick G]

So where is the three foot snow fall?  I actually feel bad for nws because they must have been blasted for this.

[daxx]

So where is the three foot snow fall?  I actually feel bad for nws because they must have been blasted for this.

 

I did not see one forecast by the NWS that had any of us getting 3ft of snow.

[JamieOber]

So where is the three foot snow fall?  I actually feel bad for nws because they must have been blasted for this.

 

I did not see one forecast by the NWS that had any of us getting 3ft of snow.

I think he meant people thought the NWS were the one forecasting it. 

 

Go read the AFD for next week...they are most definitely aware of overhyping and have definitely changed their AFD's. 

[daxx]

I think he meant people thought the NWS were the one forecasting it. 

 

Go read the AFD for next week...they are most definitely aware of overhyping and have definitely changed their AFD's. 

 

Yea... I get what he saying now.  Its a shame NWS has to get sh!t on for this!

[pawatch]

 

Scoreboard as we enter the weekend's mere pittance of snowfall:

 

MDT

 

Feb snowfall to date: 7.1

Feb average snowfall to date: 2.5

% of average: 284%

Seasonal snowfall to date: 28.1

Seasonal average snowfall to date: 18.1

% of average: 155%

Overall seasonal average snowfall: 31.2

Percentage of overall average to date: 90%

 

IPT

 

Feb snowfall to date: 9.0

Feb average snowfall to date: 2.2

% of average: 409%

Seasonal snowfall to date: 33.2

Seasonal average snowfall to date: 21.4

% of average: 155%

Overall seasonal average snowfall: 36.0

Percentage of overall average to date: 92%

 

UNV

 

Feb snowfall to date: 7.5

Feb average snowfall to date: 2.8

% of average: 268%

Seasonal snowfall to date: 32.6

Seasonal average snowfall to date: 25.7

% of average: 127%

Overall seasonal average snowfall: 45.6

Percentage of overall average to date: 72%

 

Bonus:

 

If we were to get average snowfall rest of winter, we'd end up with: 

 

UNV: 52.6

IPT: 47.9

MDT: 41.2

 

If we kept the same rate above average snowfall as the rest of the winter, we'd end at: 

 

UNV: 57.9

IPT: 55.6

MDT: 48.6

 

Jamie great post!! IPT has been blessed with 2 big snowfalls.

[NortheastPAWx]

Someone in my one class said "I heard we were supposed to get 24-36 inches and it got dropped to 6-10"

This is the HECHS - historic east coast hype storm

[JamieOber]

Someone in my one class said "I heard we were supposed to get 24-36 inches and it got dropped to 6-10"

This is the HECHS - historic east coast hype storm

Where did they even get the 6-10, I wonder? 

[Atomixwx]

Dt's woofing up a tree now. Shocker.

[dcfox1]

I was just talked to the crew of  a power truck from Alabama who flipped on the tansformer in from of my house and they even joked they are glad no big storm here now or they may be here another week.

[jm1220]

 

Scoreboard as we enter the weekend's mere pittance of snowfall:

 

MDT

 

Feb snowfall to date: 7.1

Feb average snowfall to date: 2.5

% of average: 284%

Seasonal snowfall to date: 28.1

Seasonal average snowfall to date: 18.1

% of average: 155%

Overall seasonal average snowfall: 31.2

Percentage of overall average to date: 90%

 

IPT

 

Feb snowfall to date: 9.0

Feb average snowfall to date: 2.2

% of average: 409%

Seasonal snowfall to date: 33.2

Seasonal average snowfall to date: 21.4

% of average: 155%

Overall seasonal average snowfall: 36.0

Percentage of overall average to date: 92%

 

UNV

 

Feb snowfall to date: 7.5

Feb average snowfall to date: 2.8

% of average: 268%

Seasonal snowfall to date: 32.6

Seasonal average snowfall to date: 25.7

% of average: 127%

Overall seasonal average snowfall: 45.6

Percentage of overall average to date: 72%

 

Bonus:

 

If we were to get average snowfall rest of winter, we'd end up with: 

 

UNV: 52.6

IPT: 47.9

MDT: 41.2

 

If we kept the same rate above average snowfall as the rest of the winter, we'd end at: 

 

UNV: 57.9

IPT: 55.6

MDT: 48.6

 

NYC is already at 40.3" and Philly's at about 40.5". Unless there's a late season rally for you guys, I'd say the odds are better than even that both stations beat the Central PA stations. Crazy how the snow climate seems to have shifted in the last 5-10 years. UNV has a higher snow average than Boston but has beaten them I think once or twice in the last decade.

[PennMan]

NYC is already at 40.3" and Philly's at about 40.5". Unless there's a late season rally for you guys, I'd say the odds are better than even that both stations beat the Central PA stations. Crazy how the snow climate seems to have shifted in the last 5-10 years. UNV has a higher snow average than Boston but has beaten them I think once or twice in the last decade.

There have been a couple of ok winters in the past several, but we are in the longest stretch without a 50"+ season since records began in 1893.

[canderson]

There have been a couple of ok winters in the past several, but we are in the longest stretch without a 50"+ season since records began in 1893.

Climate change sucks sometimes, doesn't it?

[JamieOber]

NYC is already at 40.3" and Philly's at about 40.5". Unless there's a late season rally for you guys, I'd say the odds are better than even that both stations beat the Central PA stations. Crazy how the snow climate seems to have shifted in the last 5-10 years. UNV has a higher snow average than Boston but has beaten them I think once or twice in the last decade.

BOS average snow is 43.7, UNV is 45.6. So there's not that much of a difference, actually. 

 

In the 10 years prior to this one, UNV has had more snow than BOS in the following years:

 

2011-2012

2009-2010

2006-2007

2003-2004

 

Boston has had 485.2" for an average of 48.5"

UNV has had 392.4 for an average of 39.2"

 

Boston has had an increase, UNV a decrease off the average. 

 

There have been a couple of ok winters in the past several, but we are in the longest stretch without a 50"+ season since records began in 1893.

 

Hopefully we have average snow the rest of the way, at least, to break the streak. 

[Rick G]

Yea... I get what he saying now.  Its a shame NWS has to get sh!t on for this!

That was my point. Nws had to answer for some one else's actions. They get the crap, and the kid gets nothing.

[canderson]

Prediction: MDT sets a season record low next Tuesfay night.

[psuhoffman]

Ugh looking for a threat to track but looking bleak. Gfs ggem way ots and we lost the euro this morning. Seems all out threats are evaporating.

[canderson]

PennLive actually wrote a story about the social media hype and why it's BS. Good quotes by Borales and a few other mets.

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/02/social_media_blows_rumors_of_m.html#incart_m-rpt-1

[Voyager]

Prediction: MDT sets a season record low next Tuesfay night.

 

I will if the -6 currently forecasted verifies.

[MAG5035]

PennLive actually wrote a story about the social media hype and why it's BS. Good quotes by Borales and a few other mets.

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/02/social_media_blows_rumors_of_m.html#incart_m-rpt-1

 

Some good points in that article, especially the one where Tyburski was saying about the possible storm taking precedence while we had a legitimate significant winter storm impacting the whole state. That's why it's important during an active stormy pattern with storms and rumors of storms to take the threats one at a time as they come. Acknowledge the longer range possibilities sure, but concentrate on the storms that are on your front doorstep first. 

 

The storm was dubbed "the unicorn" for a reason. Despite a presence on the ensembles for a time, it was all over the place and not anywhere near nailing down specifics of track or impact given the range at the time. There were some pretty big time runs on this particular storm last weekend but generally people didn't realize for the most part a lot of these snowmaps included the weekend storm ALONG WITH the Feb 3 and 5th events.. and that was at a point when February 5th was looking more white than icy in southern PA. So yea, if you get three Gulf storms impacting the same general area obviously someones probably going to rack up the snow totals of the 20-30" variety with all the events combined. That would've been unprecedented IMO, if we would've had the big storm this weekend. Anyone remember the last time we got hit with three big storms in less than a week?

 

Also an interesting point was this angle:

Tyburski said there was another factor that came into play.

It has already been kind of a rough winter.

“It’s been cold. We have had snowstorms," he said. "We have had ice storms and putting a map on the Internet and social media gets a lot of attention. It spread like wildfire and it kind of plays on the emotional difficulties we have had this winter. In this case, it was wrong.”

 

 

I remember this happening locally back in '09-10, after we got whacked with the Feb 5th and 10th storms. Somehow a rumor got started we were going to get a storm bigger than those storms.. and that was never even on the models.