psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 A good track for you guys would be through or just west of about Norfolk, VA and through the Chesapeake Bay. The perfect SLP track is dependent on the type of system. I did a lot of research on storms that produce 10"+ for central PA and found that if it is a pure coastal miller A then yes we need an inside runner, but if it has a double low structure, or inverted trough, or a miller b where the primary gets into KY north first...then the track along the coast is not as important as the H5 track. It just depends, way more variables then just the SLP track to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 We will take a couple inches! 2 degrees this morning....Looks like another cold night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I was excited to get 2" or so to freshen up the snowpack but the last 3 runs have really cut back on QPF tomorrow. Starting to think its a mostly non event. The northern stream is just a mess right now, ejecting vorts every few hours in peices not allowing anything to dig or amp at all. Tomorrow seems again the vort is strung out and splitting instead of consolidated so nothing is able to get going and focus lift. Just a mess...we need one good vort to dig a bit to get anything of significance to develop in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I was excited to get 2" or so to freshen up the snowpack but the last 3 runs have really cut back on QPF tomorrow. Starting to think its a mostly non event. The northern stream is just a mess right now, ejecting vorts every few hours in peices not allowing anything to dig or amp at all. Tomorrow seems again the vort is strung out and splitting instead of consolidated so nothing is able to get going and focus lift. Just a mess...we need one good vort to dig a bit to get anything of significance to develop in this pattern. Hasn't for UNV. GFS 12/18/00Z - .16/.13/.17 NAM 12/18/00Z - .17/.15/.14 More or less the same. Around 2" with the expected 14:1-15:1 ratios the NWS is talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Light snow falling now...car has a fresh coating so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hasn't for UNV. GFS 12/18/00Z - .16/.13/.17 NAM 12/18/00Z - .17/.15/.14 I was looking more for east central pa i81 area. Nam gfs and rgem have really cut back on qpf for this area last 3 runs. The avg on all 3 has gone from around .25 to .15 to .1 last 3 runs. True central pa west does ok but east if there seems things die as the energy seems to split instead of holding together. It's totally killed anything for the NYC east area also. More or less the same. Around 2" with the expected 14:1-15:1 ratios the NWS is talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 omg dat euro I'm not buying anything though. We all know what the trend has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 omg dat euro I'm not buying anything though. We all know what the trend has been. What does it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 What does it show? The euro shows your area getting crushed with snow on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The euro shows your area getting crushed with snow on Thursday. Hopefully its more than a pipe dream;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 omg dat euro I'm not buying anything though. We all know what the trend has been. Oh my, you couldn't track it any better than that for the UNV gang. Canadian and GFS still well southeast, plenty of time to reel this storm in though. There is the other trend of our storms showing up late on the models this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looks as if the GFS may have folded to the Euro. Looking at the 500's the 00Z and now the 06Z GFS have substantially changed and now have a very similar look to the Euro. Still not quite there for our region but getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hasn't for UNV. GFS 12/18/00Z - .16/.13/.17 NAM 12/18/00Z - .17/.15/.14 I was looking more for east central pa i81 area. Nam gfs and rgem have really cut back on qpf for this area last 3 runs. The avg on all 3 has gone from around .25 to .15 to .1 last 3 runs. True central pa west does ok but east if there seems things die as the energy seems to split instead of holding together. It's totally killed anything for the NYC east area also. More or less the same. Around 2" with the expected 14:1-15:1 ratios the NWS is talking. Ugh, that sucks. A good sign from this am is we didn't lose anything to dry air. Started snowing here a bit ago as soon as the radar returns were over us. Have a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 omg dat euro I'm not buying anything though. We all know what the trend has been. Oh my, you couldn't track it any better than that for the UNV gang. Canadian and GFS still well southeast, plenty of time to reel this storm in though. There is the other trend of our storms showing up late on the models this year. Yeah, that's what I'm worried a bit about don't go any further north dammit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ugh, that sucks. A good sign from this am is we didn't lose anything to dry air. Started snowing here a bit ago as soon as the radar returns were over us. Have a dusting. Wonder how that translates for us on the other side of the mountains. NWS has us in the 2-4 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This Thursday event has piqued my interest. The EURO has support from its own ensembles who have the storm a little east of the operational. Other globals do have the storm but not as far west. The 06z GFS was certainly a big jump west from the 00z, although there are no ensemble runs as of yet that look like the 00z EURO run. As always, 12z runs will be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Have had a very light snow on and off here for the last couple of hours. Probably bodes well for when we actually get some radar returns over us that we won't lose much to evaporation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looking over the CIP's analogs brings up a few heavy hitters for Wed/Thur but only one that substantially impacted central PA. Jan 22, 1987 which was a widespread east coast storm with quite an extensive 12+ inch snow fall. The comparables at 500's are pretty rough for most of the analog storms though, with the 1987 storm coming in last at 15th on the list with a .487 rating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 In a winter where twenty is warm, nineteen is damn cold today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Maybe you could help out as there isn't much info there, but do you have euro maps that include wpa? This Thursday event has piqued my interest. The EURO has support from its own ensembles who have the storm a little east of the operational. Other globals do have the storm but not as far west. The 06z GFS was certainly a big jump west from the 00z, although there are no ensemble runs as of yet that look like the 00z EURO run. As always, 12z runs will be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Wonder how that translates for us on the other side of the mountains. NWS has us in the 2-4 range.Been flurrying here in pine grove last hour. Not heavy but huge fluffy flakes. The kind that give high ratios. My fear looking at radar is everything seems to be sliding north a bit and we might end up south of the initial band. That band in western pa will hit us but I'm also worried the ratios won't be as good as the thermal profiles shift a bit north today. From the flake type you can tell we are in the perfect snow growth region right now. Hopefully that doesn't end up to our north later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Clipper drying out alert flurries and sun here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 omg dat euro I'm not buying anything though. We all know what the trend has been. I just am happy we have something to track. It has potential for us. I don't think it can be a big coastal snow. Not enough cold available so it's probably our storm or a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 When is this storm suppose to hit, I've been out of the loop I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Been flurrying here in pine grove last hour. Not heavy but huge fluffy flakes. The kind that give high ratios. My fear looking at radar is everything seems to be sliding north a bit and we might end up south of the initial band. That band in western pa will hit us but I'm also worried the ratios won't be as good as the thermal profiles shift a bit north today. From the flake type you can tell we are in the perfect snow growth region right now. Hopefully that doesn't end up to our north later. Clipper drying out alert flurries and sun here. Keep in mind this really isn't supposed to start in earnest for us until this afternoon. The northern counties are getting bonus snow. The radar presentation of this is pretty good, nice heavy bands and snow back to the western edge of OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 When is this storm suppose to hit, I've been out of the loop I guess. Which one? Today's is this afternoon into early eve, the mid week looks like Wed night-Thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Clipper drying out alert flurries and sun here.main band still to your west. You are in a great spot to maximize qpf with ratios too. This isn't going to be big but I think your safe for 1-2 at least. 3-4 if a band sets up over you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 main band still to your west. You are in a great spot to maximize qpf with ratios too. This isn't going to be big but I think your safe for 1-2 at least. 3-4 if a band sets up over you. Is the storm on one model or do we have some support? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Is the storm on one model or do we have some support?sorry you lost me. You mean today's clipper ? It's on all the guidance. Light qpf but .13 qpf can be 2-3" with high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 sorry you lost me. You mean today's clipper ? It's on all the guidance. Light qpf but .13 qpf can be 2-3" with high ratios. Lol, the Wednesday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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