CarlislePaWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's been winding down to barely flurries now. Final total was 1.5"...just made it. Temp 22.5. Snow is all crystalline-looking with plenty of reflections coming off of my back deck. Guess we wait for Zero Z to see if GFS starts agreeing with 18Z Nam or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS flips a big middle finger to everyone. As I recall, it was way further south than the rest of the guidance with last Monday's "surprise" several inches. It had the precip shield making it only to mid VA just 72 hours before the storm. Let's see if the GFS pulls NW in the coming runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 3" exactly today...Not Bad Very nice. Ended with 2.4" in Bellefonte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS flips a big middle finger to everyone. Tbh, this is the scenario I'm rooting for lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just measured 2.5" here. Still some light snow around though, so perhaps...another quarter inch? That gives us 12" exactly since last Monday. I wish some of the storms we had didn't end in the morning while I was at work. I didn't measure those since compaction and melt would have skewed the numbers. As such, I don't have a true total for the season to date. Rough estimate would be about 25" to 30" maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 1.75 here today. Really pretty and winter postcard like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Family reporting 1.5" back in Linglestown from today's snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS Op is east of its ensemble mean. Actually its on the outer edge of the majority of its members which could mean a shift west might be coming. Unless it drastically changes in the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 3.3" was the total here.. with a snow depth of 9" and 10.6" in the last 7 days. I'd say winter won this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'd estimate about two inches of fresh powder on top of another three inches of solid ice hell. Not fun to walk in/on after having surgery on a herniated disk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Finished with 1.7" snow which produced .12" of liquid for a ratio of 14:1. I am at 38" so far this season. The only thing missing from this winter is a KU event. Still time for that I suppose. Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 3.3" was the total here.. with a snow depth of 9" and 10.6" in the last 7 days. I'd say winter won this week. Nice. Ended up with 4 inches back home. Getting close to 60" on the year. Have totaled 59" on the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Finished with 1.7" snow which produced .12" of liquid for a ratio of 14:1. I am at 38" so far this season. The only thing missing from this winter is a KU event. Still time for that I suppose. Thursday? Sure, if this "forecaster with 18 years experience" is to be believed. (the link, not Voyager haha) Seriously??? Here we go again... http://www.theweatherspace.com/2014/02/09/most-reliable-model-projecting-a-march-1993-like-super-storm-noreaster-for-the-eastern-united-states/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 SREFs verbatim are a...well, you can figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 SREFs verbatim are a...well, you can figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not bad seems to be trending NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is like the old days, the OP GFS is on the easternmost edge of the guidance. With this being a southern stream storm, I'd take the EURO and Canadian combo over the GFS any day of the week. Even if it showed 33 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Posting this for posterity from WPC: AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WED ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: AVERAGEA BROAD AND SLOWLY AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM SHOULD GUARANTEE ASTRONGER SYSTEM WITH TIME, BUT ITS PROGRESSION HINTS THAT A FASTERPROGRESSION WITH THIS DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS MORE LIKELY. THISHAS BEEN BORNE OUT IN THE ECMWF TRENDS SINCE ITS 00Z RUN, THOUGHIT HAS ALSO TRENDED MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED ALOFT. THE 12Z GFSSHOWS A MENAGERIE OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYESFROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD FROM LATE TUESDAY ONWARD, WHICHCAN EXPLAIN ITS QUICKER PROGRESSION. WITH CONVERGING GUIDANCEALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, BELIEVE A NON-GFS COMPROMISE IS THE BESTCOURSE OF ACTION FOR THE TIME BEING, PREFERRED WITH AVERAGECONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM'S PROGRESSIVE NATURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wxeastern, yet another hype-monger. They're saying model consensus major nor'Easter on Thursday giving mod to heavy snow to most of the eastern seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM is going insane on this run. 500mb low closes off over NC (Good to know that an 84 hour NAM run crashes AmWx still) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We gettin' NAM'd, yo. The weenies are coming. One if by land, two if by SQL Error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM'd. Period of sleet for LSV, but a healthy dose of snow for all. Looks like the NAM is ther westernmost solution, GFS is easternmost. UKMET / EURO / Canadian in the middle. The takeaways from today's runs are: Storm is still there. Decent upside potential. Watch out for the Great Lakes low...experience has told me it could bugger the LSV counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 IPT .50+, UNV .75+, southern areas 1.00+ Probably our best-case scenario, at least those of us 80N. Which means toss this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'd estimate about two inches of fresh powder on top of another three inches of solid ice hell. Not fun to walk in/on after having surgery on a herniated disk. I had my neurostimulator replaced two weeks ago. I am not allowed to even look at the snow....swmbo is very strict. On to the weather weinies, local group says that the next storm could be as bad as 93. I wanted to ask where they got their met degree. Of course, they have 8000 followers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM'd. Period of sleet for LSV, but a healthy dose of snow for all. Looks like the NAM is ther westernmost solution, GFS is easternmost. UKMET / EURO / Canadian in the middle. The takeaways from today's runs are: Storm is still there. Decent upside potential. Watch out for the Great Lakes low...experience has told me it could bugger the LSV counties. This to me is the biggest difference between the NAM depiction (LR NAM should still be taken with a grain of salt past 48 hours) and other models seems to be this feature. The NAM is very underwhelming on the GL low. It's basically a non-factor on the 0z run and totally crushes the whole area. I am not worried about upper level temperatures and surface temps until probably Tuesday afternoon on. At this point, H5 is beyond fantastic on the NAM. This solution would be huge run for basically everyone on the forum. Areas of most concern imo for mixing issues will be along the I95 corridor. Most Miller A systems bring a partial mix to those areas around the interstate. Anyone say 10-20 miles W/NW of 95 would be all snow and a lot of it verbatim on the NAM run. This will be a crazy storm to track if it comes to fruition. Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS still OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This completely annoys me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Once again the GFS has the GL low affect the run. Until that feature is completely gone from the GFS or at least held further back, nothing will be set in stone. Very interesting runs coming next 24-36 hours. I'd say by tomorrow night with sampling of all major players on the field we'll start to get a better idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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