Caveman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is why - I'll get killed for this - I think models should all be behind paywalls available to credentialed peeps. Any idiot can read a model (not disrespecting anyone here, no one here is an idiot ... well maybe that one York guy) but it's all modelogy now and not meteorology and it's costing real mets scorn in the public eye. It sucks. You're right...you're gonna get it! What determines a credential? Who verifies? How much for a pay site? Open and free markets...others would make modeling available at lower and lower costs; competition. I'd rather refer to modeling as Numerical GUIDANCE! This pattern has potential storminess all over it! Maybe I'm that idiot to who you refer; maybe not. In this free society, one should be able to voice one's own opinion unless the detriment is life threatening. A major nor'easter or a fish storm is not a life threatening event. Let's all sit back and enjoy the synoptic pattern that has been provided and watch how this pans out in terms of the sensible wx..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I tend to avoid NYC forums, ESP since I saw posts complaining about 16 inches of snow in a storm lol. Probably a good idea. We have some great analysis but people here have no idea how lucky we've had it the last 10 years. If I-95 had as hard a bad luck turn as you guys have, there likely would be meltdowns every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You're right...you're gonna get it! What determines a credential? Who verifies? How much for a pay site? Open and free markets...others would make modeling available at lower and lower costs; competition. I'd rather refer to modeling as Numerical GUIDANCE! This pattern has potential storminess all over it! Maybe I'm that idiot to who you refer; maybe not. In this free society, one should be able to voice one's own opinion unless the detriment is life threatening. A major nor'easter or a fish storm is not a life threatening event. Let's all sit back and enjoy the synoptic pattern that has been provided and watch how this pans out in terms of the sensible wx..... but this is where the problem is... these groups that post images from select model runs that show a high impact event often do so because of the attention they get from it... then when it turns out to be a minor event people dont think that what they posted was wrong but think more along the lines that it wasnt a big deal... then when the major storms come along they are left unprepared and that is when it does become a life threatening event... people ending up stranded... elderly left without power or services that they need are unable to get to them like food/medicine... etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 00z ECMWF Ensembles have a 80-90% chance of 6" for pretty much all EPA (Including Lan Co and York) 6" contour runs west of CTP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 but this is where the problem is... these groups that post images from select model runs that show a high impact event often do so because of the attention they get from it... then when it turns out to be a minor event people dont think that what they posted was wrong but think more along the lines that it wasnt a big deal... then when the major storms come along they are left unprepared and that is when it does become a life threatening event... people ending up stranded... elderly left without power or services that they need are unable to get to them like food/medicine... etc boy who cried wolf. The sad part is that if one keeps calling for a big storm every time, eventually they'll be right and take the fame. But not acknowledge all the wrong forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Good to see the MA/NYC/NE folks creaming over being bullseyed on the 84 hour NAM Can't wait to see what it shows this time tomorrow. I understand the weenies going nuts, but you also have a pro forecaster doing the same thing in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I would hope no one in any forum would take the 84 hour nam seriously! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS out to 42...shortwave trough is digging deeper and more negatively tilted than 06z and the "kicker" UL Great Lakes energy is slower...makes me think this thing is coming west from 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is why - I'll get killed for this - I think models should all be behind paywalls available to credentialed peeps. Any idiot can read a model (not disrespecting anyone here, no one here is an idiot ... well maybe that one York guy) but it's all modelogy now and not meteorology and it's costing real mets scorn in the public eye. It sucks. I disagree, knowledge should be free, people who follow the clueless have two options: 1 be sheep and follow the clueless or 2. learn a little bet and trust the pros. I don't have a degree in meteorology, mine is in comp sci and healthcare, I don't read the models all that well and will refer to them when I want to see how someone's forecast is reasoned out. The media Mets are their own worse enemy, they have to come up with teasers that will have someone watch their forecasts. so the chances of someone who isn't informed may only hear the teaser part of the forecast. The other issue is that most people get their wx info from online sources (S&S, Weatherboy, Eastern pa) these sources have become the first line knowledge. Most of these people are not degreed mets and because of this, we get poor info, out of date data and skewed forecasts. If I had to do it all over again, I would have gone in to meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We are a "special" breed. HPC 9jhwbg_conus.gif Made by Paul Kocin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 1996 was a nightmare for me. I was working when that went down. My daughter had here home destroyed and we rescued a lot of people who refused to leave when they were ordered to evacuate. Then become trapped. Six of the 18 flood-related deaths occurred in Lycoming County, where property damage exceeded $100 million. Four occurred in Lycoming Creek, a small stream just west of Williamsport. Eyewitnesses reported that a four-foot wall of water roared down the narrow creek after an ice jam upstream broke loose on Friday evening. Frank Kangenski, 77, and his wife, Gladys, 75, who live in Trout Run, midway up the creek, drowned when their car stalled in a cornfield as they attempted to outrace the rising water. Neighbors could hear Kangenski calling for help but were unable to rescue the couple. Mary Ann Blair, 38, of Cogan Station, drowned after being swept off the roof of her mobile home along the creek. John Keck, 68, of Landisville in Lancaster County, died when his car was swept off a bridge on Route 14, which runs along the creek. ``There is devastation all over up there,'' said Old Lycoming Township Police Chief Salvatore A. Casale. ``We have approximately 3 1/2 miles of creek where all the homes are destroyed.'' Ice caused damage in all three watersheds, but it especially wreaked havoc on the Susquehanna. River-watchers are comparing it to the flood of 1904, when March rains melted ice that was 10 feet thick in places and sent train-sized icebergs and other debris hurtling downstream. Entire islands were eradicated in the flow. It sounds like you are talking about the huge rainstorm that occurred about a week or so after the Jan 7-8, 1996 storm. I can't remember if that rain storm came the following Friday (12th) or the next Friday (19th). With snowpacks of greater than 24" widespread and the bitter cold that preceded the rainstorm the flooding that occurred was a disaster waiting to happen. The 7/8 '96 storm only came into agreement about 36 hours before the event began. The models (NGM) went from showing practically nothing just 2 days before (Fri 5th) to showing a monster the morning of Saturday the 6th. Many places at the beginning of the storm Sunday morning were in the single digits. That was one of the coldest starts to a storm I can ever remember. As the storm was winding down on Monday morning, a full 24 hours after it had begun, sleet had been mixing in (at least in NJ where I was at the time). Almost all of the classic track huge storms produce some mixing near the I-95 corridor. By the end we had close to 36" of snow depth, and that was what set the stage for the impending flood disaster out here. As others stated, the 1993 storm was one of the best modeled mega-storms ever. At least a full five days prior the models began to show an incredible Miller A that would form in the Central Gulf and then slowly move up the coast as a just-barely inland runner. It passed almost directly over Philadelphia and followed a path up the NJ Turnpike passing just barely west of Newark with a central pressure of 969mb, the lowest pressure I had ever measured. Newark ended up briefly sky-rocketing up to the upper 30's before crashing back down with the passage of the center. Meanwhile, less than 15 miles west of Newark where I was living my temp only peaked in the upper 20's and then went crashing back down shortly after. Newark went over to rain for a time while I had seen many hours of sleet which came after 13" of snow had fallen in under 8 hours. The "Storm of the Century" as it was called was modeled as a rare "tripple phaser" where all 3 jetstreams had come together down in the gulf. It produced flooding down there from the storm surge it created. The deep south experienced record snowfalls. I'm pretty sure Atlanta had at least 8" of snow, maybe more. I'm only recounting this storm to illustrate that the currently modeled Miller A is no 969mb low. It may bomb out along its path up the coast but it definitely should not be likened to the '93 storm except for possibly some similarities in the 500/850 charts. I was ready to stangle Kevin Martin after he recklessly began talking about major blizzard conditions up the eastern seaboard. If he has 18 years of forecasting experience then he needs to go back to school and take a class on how not to hype potential storms like he is doing now. He makes JB look like milk-toast when it comes to playing up a potential big event. Uggghhhh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Eating my words here, track is close to 06z..not much change. Less QPF NW on this run, but H5 has made moves in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Eating my words here, track is close to 06z..not much change. Less QPF NW on this run, but H5 has made moves in the right direction. GFS seemed to be to last model to catch on to this storm. It needs a little more time. All eyes turn to 1PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Damn Great Lakes low is screwing us. Great H5 track and negative tilt but just gets kicked east by that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I like where the gfs is right now. From 24 hrs ago to now is a huge jump northwest. For now just go with most consistent models, and watch for any changes on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yea 93 was an unbelievable event, that we may never see in our lifetimes again. Just unbelievable size and scope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yea 93 was an unbelievable event, that we may never see in our lifetimes again. Just unbelievable size and scope. I called my dad from Pittsburgh to ask how it was going with it and he said "well, the last hour we've had heavy sleet and snow mixed with green lightning." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yea 93 was an unbelievable event, that we may never see in our lifetimes again. Just unbelievable size and scope. Perhaps even a few lifetimes. Anyway, after the NAM and GFS, I'm really interested in seeing if the Euro holds serve or moves east this run. Of course there is way too much time for either elation or heartbreak, but it'll be interesting to see what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Perhaps even a few lifetimes. Anyway, after the NAM and GFS, I'm really interested in seeing if the Euro holds serve or moves east this run. Of course there is way too much time for either elation or heartbreak, but it'll be interesting to see what it shows. After reading what Eric Horst said in his discussion I'm not sure it's worth it to look at models before tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I called my dad from Pittsburgh to ask how it was going with it and he said "well, the last hour we've had heavy sleet and snow mixed with green lightning." Haha how cool would that be?? I was 3 so I really can't remember it too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 this storm is starting to have the 12/18/09 feeling. I don't know if the set up is at all similar. I'm sure I might get crap for this from our northern posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 UK is 985 to the BM. The rich get richer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ehhh not really this is more east vs. west than 09 where the cutoff was much more north vs.south oriented if I remember right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 My guess is it puts LSV and you and Hoffman on the edge and dries true central out. I have a feeling you guys will be a battle ground area. Based on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I called my dad from Pittsburgh to ask how it was going with it and he said "well, the last hour we've had heavy sleet and snow mixed with green lightning." I remember in addition to 1/8 visibility and winds gusting to 40 almost all day a 3 hour period or so of thunder and lightning. Definitely blizzard conditions for almost the entire day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 12z UKIE is a solid hit for LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ehhh not really this is more east vs. west than 09 where the cutoff was much more north vs.south oriented if I remember right. yeah you're right on the north to south. What I meant is about how it was forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ohh yea you are correct then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ehhh not really this is more east vs. west than 09 where the cutoff was much more north vs.south oriented if I remember right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 12z UKIE is a solid hit for LSV. And based off the early maps from our friends up north, the GGEM has shifted west slightly from 00z. Although its very tough to tell using their 4-panel maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.