shadow_ Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 EURO snow map folks: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BgIg1n3CQAAOOea.jpg:large Nice, lehigh valley in the bullseye, but i don't think i want to be in the bullseye this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wish there were fewer than 48hrs to go though - there's a lot that can throw this bomb off and have it miss most the region. I hope it doesn't and we all get a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nice, lehigh valley in the bullseye, but i don't think i want to be in the bullseye this early. It's better to be in an ECM bullseye 78-84hrs out than a NAM/GFS bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'd like if someone could potentially do a county overlay of the map Joe posted...would provide a clearer picture. Eyeballing it, it looks like you are pretty close to the 10" line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If you guys didn't see, radio show tonight at 9 p.m. - DT's apparently invited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If you guys didn't see, radio show tonight at 9 p.m. - DT's apparently invited! Cool. Definitely has potential to have a huge impact from Deep South to New England. Have not seen that type of impact potential in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If you guys didn't see, radio show tonight at 9 p.m. - DT's apparently invited! Welp, it was fun while it lasted...probably will jinx it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's better to be in an ECM bullseye 78-84hrs out than a NAM/GFS bullseye. Mitchell Gaines, who is a pretty good met, noted that often these sort of amped storms come back a bit further west on the models as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Mitchell Gaines, who is a pretty good met, noted that often these sort of amped storms come back a bit further west on the models as we get closer. That's why even here along 81 I am more worried about mixing then missing to the east. I am glad the GFS/NAM are misses to the east because this will no doubt trend west overall the last 48 hours on the american guidance...it almost always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That's why even here along 81 I am more worried about mixing then missing to the east. I am glad the GFS/NAM are misses to the east because this will no doubt trend west overall the last 48 hours on the american guidance...it almost always does. Agree. More concern about coming further west than east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 15z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How's the pressure gradient look? Winds? Winds are meh...maybe 10-20mph...absolutely NOWHERE near blizzard strength for those wondering. You need to have that large pressure gradient between the high to the northwest and the coastal low, which just isn't present time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I do want to point out one critical feature from the WPC. Next 24 hours are important. AN IMPORTANT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAD NOT YET COME ASHOREINTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING...SO SOME MARKED TRENDS MAY BEYET TO COME. THE 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET...HOWEVER...ARE CONSISTENT WITHTHE CURRENT TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH GIVES US SOMECONFIDENCE IN RECOMMENDING THEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Agree. More concern about coming further west than east. Was thinking the same thing. I'll take the powder or sleet but no wet snow or ice here with weakened trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'd like if someone could potentially do a county overlay of the map Joe posted...would provide a clearer picture. here ya go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Thanks for quick maps guys - and Jamie, yeah, I've been lurking PhillyWx and saw Mitchell's post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I do want to point out one critical feature from the WPC. Next 24 hours are important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I can't post it from my phone, but Horst has a preliminary map up that shows "chance heavy snow" running roughly between I81 to I95 with "chance snow" flanking that area on both sides. He also says it is way too early to specify amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I can't post it from my phone, but Horst has a preliminary map up that shows "chance heavy snow" running roughly between I81 to I95 with "chance snow" flanking that area on both sides. He also says it is way too early to specify amounts. Tweet: https://twitter.com/MUweather/status/432959476702801920/photo/1 Graphic: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Tom Russell at WHP-TV is the first Harrisburg area TV met to drop the "F" bomb about this storm on facebook. He said "about a foot" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 ECMENS apparently a 988 tucked into the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 euro ensemble mean looks to be fairly identical to operational at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Watches up from Mason-Dixon south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Tweet: https://twitter.com/MUweather/status/432959476702801920/photo/1 Graphic: BgIuWaOCcAAySmF.jpg I hope that being right in the "dead center" of that heavy snow stripe (as I am right now) isn't the kiss of death for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 LWX has watches up already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm REALLY hoping this is the one that buries Voyager!! Looking good so far buddy, with a little wiggle room both ways for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Mark Ellinwood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 CTP is still quiet. The fact that LWX has watches up makes me wonder if they might sac the HWO for watches as well. We'll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Mark Ellinwood ScreenHunter_64 Feb. 10 15.12.png I think that is a great map. He usually does very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 My guess is I 81 border counties have watches and the rest get HWO when it happens. Still A LOT of uncertainty though, for just about everyone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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