Zelocita Weather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Don't look at Mount Holly's preliminary snow map if you're an I-95 snow hater...lol Of course they are disclamering the hell out of it as being very preliminary, and that it's based on current model guidance, AND that it will likely be adjusted between now and the actual event, but.... That's just through 7am Thursday, no worries more for all after that time period.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The CCB look on the Euro run is just beautiful. Wow! How do 850s look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That's just through 7am Thursday, no worries more for all after that time period.... Oops...missed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just reading the AFD's, both State College and Mount Holly are pretty much discounting the GFS solutions, FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Still not enthused after looking at the ECM ENS, 6z models and the WPC discussion. This is an I-95 storm and I'm on my way to a 30-day hiatus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Don't look at Mount Holly's preliminary snow map if you're an I-95 snow hater...lol Of course they are disclamering the hell out of it as being very preliminary, and that it's based on current model guidance, AND that it will likely be adjusted between now and the actual event, but.... I'm trying to get you guys an early phase down here. Sent from my SCH-L710 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Still not enthused after looking at the ECM ENS, 6z models and the WPC discussion. This is an I-95 storm and I'm on my way to a 30-day hiatus. You need to stop. I like you and think that you are an ok poster, but let's get through a few more model runs before throwing the towel in to an I-95 storm. Please.... I suppose I shouldn't have mentioned the Mount Holly map. I just added fuel to the fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Still not enthused after looking at the ECM ENS, 6z models and the WPC discussion. This is an I-95 storm and I'm on my way to a 30-day hiatus. Models have been absolute garbage across the south the past 10 days, though. Worst run of modeling I can ever recall in my 10 years of watching. Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Did anyone see DT's first guess map? I would take that in a heartbeat... Don't look at Mount Holly's preliminary snow map if you're an I-95 snow hater...lol Of course they are disclamering the hell out of it as being very preliminary, and that it's based on current model guidance, AND that it will likely be adjusted between now and the actual event, but.... I cant even find it? Have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is this a start time in the middle of the night Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I cant even find it? Have a link? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Still not enthused after looking at the ECM ENS, 6z models and the WPC discussion. This is an I-95 storm and I'm on my way to a 30-day hiatus.Ok I do get the pessimism but when you say that it gives the wrong idea to those that didnt see the eps. Ec ensemble mean gives aoo unv and ipt .7 qpf. Mdt to avp over 1" qpf. Trended way west from 12z. You want to moan about the 6z nam or ggem/gfs being east fine but don't throw the eps in with that argument.Also there are some in east central pa that have a good shot here and I don't remember them raining on your parade when unv was getting a few decent snows earlier this season while we were getting rain or mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ok I do get the pessimism but when you say that it gives the wrong idea to those that didnt see the eps. Ec ensemble mean gives aoo unv and ipt .7 qpf. Mdt to avp over 1" qpf. Trended way west from 12z. You want to moan about the 6z nam or ggem/gfs being east fine but don't throw the eps in with that argument. Also there are some in east central pa that have a good shot here and I don't remember them raining on your parade when unv was getting a few decent snows earlier this season while we were getting rain or mix. Well that part is on me then - I don't have access to ECM/ENS data, I had just read it was to the east of the OP, and let's face it - given the sharp cutoff, any eastward shift would be a bad thing. And I'm not trying to rain on east-central's parade here. I think most would realize I'm talking about the northern parts of our forum with my posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You know the 12z Euro fringes the entire LSV now ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Honestly, mdt to our eastern posters should have interest in this as historically they do well with these. Elsewhere, proceed at your own risk lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Today's 12z runs are the first to have the upper air features over the US weather balloon network. If the 12/18/00 runs continue the show, then I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 if you are trying to compare this to 93, keep in mind (IIRC) that the storm actually wasn't a lock for amounts until 24 hours before. and at that time, they issued all kind of alerts. I seem to remember that they rushed to get the warnings out before the 11:00 newscasts. again IIRC, the NWS didn't think the storm would be anywhere as bad as it was. (I know some of the older members may remember this.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like I might not be able to enjoy the thursday storm. My wife is sure that she is going to go into labor then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ok I do get the pessimism but when you say that it gives the wrong idea to those that didnt see the eps. Ec ensemble mean gives aoo unv and ipt .7 qpf. Mdt to avp over 1" qpf. Trended way west from 12z. You want to moan about the 6z nam or ggem/gfs being east fine but don't throw the eps in with that argument. Also there are some in east central pa that have a good shot here and I don't remember them raining on your parade when unv was getting a few decent snows earlier this season while we were getting rain or mix. I agree with what DT is saying. If the Euro track is correct no way the I-95 corridor doesn't go over to rain. But the entire I-81 corridor would be golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like I might not be able to enjoy the thursday storm. My wife is sure that she is going to go into labor then. Well, congrats, man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 if you are trying to compare this to 93, keep in mind (IIRC) that the storm actually wasn't a lock for amounts until 24 hours before. and at that time, they issued all kind of alerts. I seem to remember that they rushed to get the warnings out before the 11:00 newscasts. again IIRC, the NWS didn't think the storm would be anywhere as bad as it was. (I know some of the older members may remember this.) Who the heck is comparing this to March '93?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 if you are trying to compare this to 93, keep in mind (IIRC) that the storm actually wasn't a lock for amounts until 24 hours before. and at that time, they issued all kind of alerts. I seem to remember that they rushed to get the warnings out before the 11:00 newscasts. again IIRC, the NWS didn't think the storm would be anywhere as bad as it was. (I know some of the older members may remember this.) No, that was 1996. The Superstorm was seen on models five days out and is considered one of the first times forecasters had confidence five days out. They issued a Blizzard Warning for PITTSBURGH two days out. http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/events/storm/welcome.html#firsts Firsts in Forecasting For the first time, National Weather Service forecasters were able to forecast a storm of this magnitude five days in advance and provide storm and blizzard warnings two days in advance. This was unprecedented. The five-day lead time allowed the entire NWS to begin preparations well in advance of the storm and warn the 100,000,000 people in the eastern third of the United States of this impending natural disaster. Prior to the “Storm of the Century,” the technology was not available to warn not only of a storm this far in advance, but also of its expected impacts. With a level of confidence they had never experienced, NWS forecasters began using terms like “of historic proportions” to describe the impending storm. In turn, this allowed, for the first time, officials such as the governors of New York and the New England states to declare states of emergency prior to the first snow flake falling on their states and take actions to mitigate potential disaster. To accomplish this was a triumph of science, technology, communications and media relations. According to Dr. Louis Uccellini, present head of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction, “It was a defining moment in our forecast process, a process that has evolved over the past forty years.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Take the 9z SREFs as you will. Track is from off the NC coast and toward 40/70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like I might not be able to enjoy the thursday storm. My wife is sure that she is going to go into labor then. F the snow then, that is much more important and a long time coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Take the 9z SREFs as you will. Track is from off the NC coast and toward 40/70. Yes, the mean is. But the spread favors the western edge of that track...meaning more of a hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There goes the meltdown in the Mid Atlantic subforum. Weenies jumping off the cliff over the thoughts of a driving rainstorm for DC S&E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 No, that was 1996. The Superstorm was seen on models five days out and is considered one of the first times forecasters had confidence five days out. They issued a Blizzard Warning for PITTSBURGH two days out. Yes, it was '96. If I remember correctly, the NWS was playing catch up during the last 24 hours as they kept upping totals. I think as close in as the day before, I think we were only supposed to get 3-6 at the most in Allentown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yes, the mean is. But the spread favors the western edge of that track...meaning more of a hugger. True, they're still carrying a large spread, which would put you guys in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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