WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Can someone post a WxBell snow map of the 12Z Euro? That is a copyrighted image, as are all WxBell maps, FYI. If it gets out into the public domain via FB or Tweeter, fine, link it, but the EC graphics from WxBell are off limits, no need for a JB vs American type deal. May I suggest wunderground, check out the precip, temps, and do the math. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Have you looked at the model? That is not happening! It squashes it to nothing no storm nada. Can't got NW if there isn't a storm it will come back, models always lose it 5 or 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 The 12z Canadian has a major IP/ZR and little or no snow for most of the coast of GA/SC. 850's are above 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 18z NAVGEM ticked NW from12z run, nice event, similar track to CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 http://www.daculaweather.com/dacula_model_update.php GO ahead and BM this site That seems extreme and gross to boot. I guess it could help his grass later this spring, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 People laugh at the DGEX but I've seen the 0z GFS follow it's lead on more than one occasion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 That is a copyrighted image, as are all WxBell maps, FYI. If it gets out into the public domain via FB or Tweeter, fine, link it, but the EC graphics from WxBell are off limits, no need for a JB vs American type deal. May I suggest wunderground, check out the precip, temps, and do the math. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Oh. Thanks I forgot about wunderground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 From NWS Raleigh: LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...DROPPING1000-850MB THICKNESSES BACK DOWN TO AROUND 1260M SUNDAY MORNING.HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY BACK AROUND TOSOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING THROUGH THEMIDWEST STATES. IN ADDITION TO MAINTAINING A THREE DAY STREAK OFHIGHS IS THE 40S...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL DRAW MOISTURE OVER NCFROM THE SOUTH...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS AS MAINLY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT OR AROUND 10K FT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE DEPTH ANDDRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SUGGEST THE LIGHT QPF GENERATED BY THE GFS AT12Z MONDAY IS OVERDONE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILDERCOMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WIND AND CLOUDCOVER....DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S. IF PRECIP WERE TODEVELOP...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A PTYPE CONCERNS BUT IT WOULDTAKE HEAVIER RATES TO OVERCOME AND WETBULB THE DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR.MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVINGTHROUGH CENTRAL NC LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THEUPPER TROUGH DEEPENING ONCE AGAIN AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHERPERIOD OF TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WHILEMODEL SOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AGAIN LOOK FAIRLY STABLEAND CONSISTENT...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES REGARDING SHORTWAVES WITHINTHE TROUGH THAT COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON PORTIONS OFCENTRAL NC. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITHA DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY THAT INDUCESCYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS ISNT QUITE ASAMPLIFIED AND DEVELOPS A LOW FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE. IN EITHERCASE...CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS KEEP PRECIP...SNOW...CONFINED TOMAINLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Eastern NC is looking pretty good right now for snow. I would be a bit concerned along the coast but inland looks to do pretty well based on the current modeling. I would love to see this thing start up in the GoM and go Miller A on us. Someone please chime in regarding that being a decent possibility or wishcasting. I'm beginning to become a touch concerned for areas such as Atlanta and westward. If the models don't start moving towards a more favorable solution for us we could be on the outside looking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 People laugh at the DGEX but I've seen the 0z GFS follow it's lead on more than one occasion. I do believe someone posted a clown map from the DGEX like 10 days before the Dec 2010 storm and it turned out pretty close area wise but overdone on totals ( of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Folks from ATL to GSO, I would not throw in the towel by any means, for one, you never want to be in the sweet spot 5 days out as systems never verify exactly as modeled given the time step. Second, I see a good bit of evidence based on the GFS/ECMWF 200 and 300mb jet structure that could lay down concrete from Augusta to Raleigh, which has implications for areas along 77 down to Columbia, and further west. Just saying, still at that range where it could go to hell in a hand basket quick, but do not feel is the case this go around. Ens support stating that even with the variations at input and how they progress, consensus is there for a similar solution. Support for at-least some form of a coastal - offshore lp is high, GoM influence remains to be seen, Gulf stream baroclinic zone is a no brainer imo. Granted, a more energized trough axis going neg tilt west of the MS will cut a low inland, this does not appear to be the case this go around. If the slp does trend over the next 72hrs closer to the coast, indicative of a more favorable but still pos tilted axis, look out given the cold core conveyor potential in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Eastern NC is looking pretty good right now for snow. I would be a bit concerned along the coast but inland looks to do pretty well based on the current modeling. I would love to see this thing start up in the GoM and go Miller A on us. Someone please chime in regarding that being a decent possibility or wishcasting. I'm beginning to become a touch concerned for areas such as Atlanta and westward. If the models don't start moving towards a more favorable solution for us we could be on the outside looking in. Steve (weatherfide) wrote the discussion today but not the long range discussion for FFC. I wish he had but they are basically in lock step with the GFS. I'm not feeling this one for us Marietta. Maybe next time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just for reference, below is for RDU and ILM for the ind. members of the Euro for the past 3 runs. Luckily Allan had this on his twitter for the previous runs, just something to compare to down the road. Note, this is out of 51 members. RDU Accumulating 2" 6"+ 1/24 - 12z 34 21 9 1/24 - 0z 33 21 7 1/23 - 12z 35 23 17 ILM 1/24 - 12z 45 36 26 1/24 - 0z 45 35 28 1/23 - 12z 44 32 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Thanks packbacker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 18z GEFS members all bone dry for everyone except one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 18z GEFS members all bone dry for everyone except one. Just looking at those, very cringe worthy, either the GFS is on to something or that was an awful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 IIRC isn't the 18z along with the 6z GFS the least trusted runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Well from where I bed down at night, I will need to have a HUGH shift west to even get some flurries, (which is still possible) I want throw in the towel until Sunday after 12z runs if it's not way west of current models by then, I'm slinging the towel!!! But good luck to whoever scores with this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 18z gfs can be an off run, but we'll see which way the 0z euro goes. Hopefully 18z is a hiccup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 IIRC isn't the 18z along with the 6z GFS the least trusted runs?No. This is brought up every month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 No. This is brought up every month. 6 and 18z do lack a fresh RAOB ingest, imo, NCEP should put more effort towards computing power rather than running the Global 4 cycles a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 We now have the following: Good Guys: GGEM, NOGAPS, DGEX, JMA, UKMET (possibly), Euro EPS. Bad Guys: GEFS, OP Euro, OP GFS At least for precip further inland. It is getting that time to worry a bit if 00z models aren't any better for the OP of both the Euro & GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 We now have the following: Good Guys: GGEM, NOGAPS, DGEX, JMA, UKMET (possibly), Euro EPS. Bad Guys: GEFS, OP Euro, OP GFS At least for precip further inland. It is getting that time to worry a bit if 00z models aren't any better for the OP of both the Euro & GFS. Not worried yet... let's see how things trend until Sunday. The "take-away" from today's runs are, for the most part, better than last night. The thing that I will be watching the most will be the trough axis and positioning as we head into the event. As was mentioned before, you do not want to be in the "sweet spot" right now. I will be pulling for the folks that don't normally see snow, but wishing that it pulls west as well. With the cold air available, most of the SE could get something wintry with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Came across these "5-day forecast" Verification scores.. for 120 hrs out etc... lower is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Not worried yet... let's see how things trend until Sunday. The "take-away" from today's runs are, for the most part, better than last night. The thing that I will be watching the most will be the trough axis and positioning as we head into the event. As was mentioned before, you do not want to be in the "sweet spot" right now. I will be pulling for the folks that don't normally see snow, but wishing that it pulls west as well. With the cold air available, most of the SE could get something wintry with this one. That's just it for me at this point. I really want the guys that don't hardly ever see snow get just blasted. Even when the models seem to depict a more westward entry of the disturbance in the PJ, it doesn't translate good for anyone downstream. It looks like an all or nothing possibility with the "all" being the coastal solution and the "nothing".....well, that's kind of obvious. Over the years, Larry has shown the ideal set ups for this part of the world and this isn't the most favored set up. We want the low to track in the northern gulf and over to around Tallahassee, FL. If we have the block, that puppy rounds the corner and heads NE. We would be threading the needle with this system if it were to impact us. Just seems too many things have to go right but that is always the case I guess! Good luck to everyone though and maybe the EURO will bring good news to someone. This cold will truly be a waste otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 To me the trend is not our friend at this point. I am hoping every stinking one of you is right that it has just "lost it". I am not cliff diving yet but I would love to see something in the 0Z model runs with some SE love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I fully expect to see a DGEX clown map at some point this evening, James, Super. 72 precip, clown map still has not updated on NCEP, millage and verification may vary. Came across these "5-day forecast" Verification scores.. for 120 hrs out etc... lower is better. Somewhat indicative of the day 5-6 performers, ~120hrs, ECMWF, UKMET, GGEM and GFS are battling for 3rd and 4th. My confidence did go up based on the 96hr UK graphic Allan posted, 12z. That was the model I was really waiting on to say this is legit. Expect the perturbations for the next 48 hours before things settle back down, maybe not as extreme as some guidance has suggested, but shovels should be at the ready nonetheless. Do not discount the NAM even at 72-84, if H5 is similar to the EC it is pretty much a lock under 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Just for a little fun, let's assume 20:1 ratios are possible with this storm given the depth of the cold...I'd be more than happy with .50-.75 qpf the DGEX is selling for central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 72 precip, clown map still has not updated on NCEP, millage and verification may vary. Somewhat indicative of the day 5-6 performers, ~120hrs, ECMWF, UKMET, GGEM and GFS are battling for 3rd and 4th. My confidence did go up based on the 96hr UK graphic Allan posted, 12z. That was the model I was really waiting on to say this is legit. Expect the perturbations for the next 48 hours before things settle back down, maybe not as extreme as some guidance has suggested, but shovels should be at the ready nonetheless. Do not discount the NAM even at 72-84, if H5 is similar to the EC it is pretty much a lock under 120. Thanks man. That's a fairly good amount inland. Now if we can just get the GFS onboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 very close to the big 12z Euro OP yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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