Wow Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 JMA looking like the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 So is it fair to say we have all models in agreement with at least seeing the storm? Anyone missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 JMA looking like the Canadian I can has? Plz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 JMA looking like the Canadian Based on the UK Met map that Allan posted you would have to think it looks similar because of it's low placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I would like to see the 850s further offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 JMA looking like the Canadian Just wondering why alot of people bad mouth the Canadian , JMA, and DGEX , and then they are ok when they are showing a good wintry event. Alot say they are a waste of time to look at?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I can has? Plz? Indeed. I'd really really like to see this trough separate from the PV axis and go neutral/negative. It would be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 So is it fair to say we have all models in agreement with at least seeing the storm? Anyone missing? DGEZ. Although it was showing a Coastal special yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I can has? Plz? Yeah I'll take that for sure. I'll take a half inch liquid with 850s around -9 or -10c any time. too bad it's the jma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 So is it fair to say we have all models in agreement with at least seeing the storm? Anyone missing? NAVGEM barely skirts the coast line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Euros has RDU at 11F when it starts snowing and drops below 10F. Not sure we have ever seen that. Feb 1979 (18th) had snow in Raleigh (10.3 inches) with daytime temps of 13-14. In single digits in Triad. Similar temps for Feb 1899 blizzard (High of 13 two straight days - 17.7 inches of snow). Those are the 2 coldest I know of in the records for central / eastern NC...so yeah, that's a cold prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 JMA looking like the Canadian Just wondering why alot of people bad mouth the Canadian , JMA, and DGEX , and then they are ok when they are showing a good wintry event. Alot say they are a waste of time to look at?! Imo, the difference is when you have muti- model agreement. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I dont have access to the UKMET precip at hour 96 but the 500mb/PMSL graphic looks pretty good with a low close to the coast. That's almost as classic of a positioning of features as you can have for a widespread SE winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just wondering why alot of people bad mouth the Canadian , JMA, and DGEX , and then they are ok when they are showing a good wintry event. Alot say they are a waste of time to look at?! Their verification scores aren't as good as the Euro and GFS, AFAIK. It's not that they're garbage (that seems to be reserved for the 84hr NAM), but they just miss more in the long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I thought the Euro was slightly better (for the inland crowd) at 500mb compared to 00z run...a bit farther southwest with the trough, and a bit sharper at the base as it moved east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncstatered21 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Checking in from Greenville, NC. We seem to be smack dab in the middle of the heaviest precip of the runs. Exciting to think about but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 So this is a 5 day storm now. Here is the question I have: Is this type of pattern more condusive to stability as we close in, or is this type of pattern more condusive to volatility, gotchas, and last minute surprises? I know that trends can take place (and you can never rule out surprises completely), but so far, we've had excellent agreement, pretty much across the board, for a system to form off the coast. And there's not really a lot "it has to phase in the nick of time or we lose" at play here. Just wondering.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 GEFS members p003 and p007 have what I think it could end up looking like... This would be a 12"+ wallup from ATL to CLT to RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I don't think the GGEM deserves to be lumped in with the NOGAPS and the JMA, to be honest. It's not a bad model, really. It's generally behind the Euro, GFS, and UK Met, but it's still decisively better than the JMA and NOGAPS. Dacula used to have the 500 mb verification score chart up on his site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just wondering why alot of people bad mouth the Canadian , JMA, and DGEX , and then they are ok when they are showing a good wintry event. Alot say they are a waste of time to look at?!For most seasoned people they are not the best relying on however when your looking at models some of the meteorology classes I took in college out professors would say it's better to gather all the input with some of the various models to gather the overall synoptic evolution of the pattern setting up. In this case for me with how volatile the pattern has been with the various shortwaves clippers etc.. its better to get as much details as you can as you can then gather what the overall setup is and start to decipher some of the various model outputs and get a sense so to speak on where this thing may go. Just my two cents but idk why people always just automatically throw out solutions even if they are horrid sometimes as models will key you in sometimes on what ultimately may occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 They are all wavering around now because they have nothing to actually sample. Once we get closer and they actually get real data from the north and west, things will start to settle down. I think it may be Sunday before we can start to get things locked down though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yvilleweather Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Sorry if I've missed this somewhere in the discussion. But is the cold temps the sole reason the ratio's will be so good with this event or are there other reasoning's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I am guessing that the Carolinas now have a better than even chance of a good storm, here in GA, a lot iffier. Hate relying on the Canadian but I do like the fact the UKMET looks to be on board, verification shows it is a better model. Interesting winter for sure...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 JMA, GGEM, UKMET, GEFS MEAN, EURO EPS, vs GFS OP, EURO OP, NOGAPS, DGEX for interior areas it seems. Edit; I'll take the first set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 So after this storm will Wilmington or Greenville have more snow than mt Mitchell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I think there will be a storm, there is just too much evidence before us, and the trends over the last couple of days have been good. The question is, how far (if any) of a jump will there be around hour 72-84 when all the data is properly sampled? If this phases, I would say the western Carolinas and a much bigger part of Georgia stand to benefit greatly. Phasing would not only alter the lows track (closer to the coast), but it would be more expansive on the northern and western edges with its qpf field as it comes through the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Southeast Coast Snow Tue/Wed . How far inland big question, east has best chance but still early. #gawx #scwx #ncwxheck out @WxSouth's Tweet: https://twitter.com/WxSouth/status/426788259755069440 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 GEFS members p003 and p007 have what I think it could end up looking like...This would be a 12"+ wallup from ATL to CLT to RDU Aside from the coast, they just don't get much prettier than that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 You know the threat is real when JB mentions a snow in the carolinas this morning; Allan is posting, and Robert is talking about it/logging on all at the same time. On top of that, Stormsfury is posting, Moto is back, Lookout seems intrigued. All great signs! Larry might have a winner thread here. Glad I voted for him to start it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I think there will be a storm, there is just too much evidence before us, and the trends over the last couple of days have been good. The question is, how far (if any) of a jump will there be around hour 72-84 when all the data is properly sampled? If this phases, I would say the western Carolinas and a much bigger part of Georgia stand to benefit greatly. Phasing would not only alter the lows track (closer to the coast), but it would be more expansive on the northern and western edges with its qpf field as it comes through the deep south. tn - what do you mean by phasing in this context?...seeing that a lot on here. There's no southern stream system of any significance. Do you mean the northern stream separating more and trying to close off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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