superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 It had 2 storms one in Jan & on in Feb. really surpressed....way down in S FL (it was a running joke on Andy Woods blog). Don't know if it got corrected or not. It had the surface low for the February 2010 Valentine's Day Storm over Cuba (literally) 90 hours out. I don't think there's any reason to freak out over a small change in an ensemble mean. It happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 It had the surface low for the February 2010 Valentine's Day Storm over Cuba (literally) 90 hours out. I don't think there's any reason to freak out over a small change in an ensemble mean. It happens. Agreed, pretty amazing model/ens support for eastern NC, I would take this 72 hours out and still feel good, although still have this feeling RDU gets fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 This literally has almost nothing in common with that Monday storm...at least from what I can remember. Both northern stream energy coming down, digging, and forming a low off the coast. Is that not right? The individual players on the field are different, different locations, etc but it seems pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Nam 69hr image has the energy dropping out of Canada/western Montana looks stronger and more west with a stronger vort in Arizona that wasn't there on the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Both northern stream energy coming down, digging, and forming a low off the coast. Is that not right? The individual players on the field are different, different locations, etc but it seems pretty similar. It's a completely different setup all the way around. There's really no comparison. However, that's doesn't mean that the precip won't be confined to the coast (east of RDU). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Both northern stream energy coming down, digging, and forming a low off the coast. Is that not right? The individual players on the field are different, different locations, etc but it seems pretty similar. That pretty much says it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 72 hour has northern energy in eastern Washington State compared to western Montana at the same time. I'm sure if it went past 84 it would get really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 To me this is just like the Monday storm; a clipper forms a low off the coast, but too late for anybody east of Raleigh. I bet it turns out the same way. In order for this to become a big deal inland, something dramatic like the trough going negative, closing off, quadruple phasing or something or other needs to happen. I haven't heard any model showing that, only various distances of how far it digs. Lol you obviously don't know how phasing works or how it changes the entire look. You must have not been around Dec '10 or you wouldn't make the snarky "quadruple phase" comment. Sit back and watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 72 hour has northern energy in eastern Washington State compared to western Montana at the same time. I'm sure if it went past 84 it would get really interesting. The long range NAM and really is not worth discussing. Jmo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 And the Nam ends at 84 with the northern energy digging thru Utah essentially west Colorado area with the southern energy approaching southwest TX out of Mexico and precip breaking out over east TX southern LA and western MS streaking northeast. Very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 To me this is just like the Monday storm; a clipper forms a low off the coast, but too late for anybody east of Raleigh. I bet it turns out the same way. In order for this to become a big deal inland, something dramatic like the trough going negative, closing off, quadruple phasing or something or other needs to happen. I haven't heard any model showing that, only various distances of how far it digs. This is a friendly suggestion. Read more and post less. This system is not going to close off and I've never heard of a quadruple phaser. Even two pieces phasing can cause quite the storm. Me thinks you might be trolling which will buy you a suspension during the first storm we have had to track in three years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The long range NAM and really is not worth discussing. Jmo Actually the 84 hr nam had the winter storm that just hit TX and LA while the euro and gfs had nothing. It has performed fairly well all winter even at hr84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Actually the 84 hr nam had the winter storm that just hit TX and LA while the euro and gfs had nothing. It has performed fairly well all winter even at hr84. In my experience I don't think I've ever seen the 84 hour nam verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Agreed, pretty amazing model/ens support for eastern NC, I would take this 72 hours out and still feel good, although still have this feeling RDU gets fringed. There is a shocking amount of model agreement and lack of variation ( at least major changes) run to run for the time frame we are in. In fact it is pretty rare to see this kind of agreement and consistency in this range. I doubt the models change that much between now and when they first start sampling the actual energy. That is the time when I would expect to see any major shifts in the model thinking on this system, if there is any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The long range NAM and really is not worth discussing. Jmo In my experience I don't think I've ever seen the 84 hour nam verify. Agreed. Fun to look at but that's about it....but it does lead credence to the overall "flow" in that time period since it's showing close to what the Euro/GFS/CMC show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 In my experience I don't think I've ever seen the 84 hour nam verify. Good to use to see if it is following the trend of the day. A follower, not a leader. The polar s/w is trending west... the southern energy is trending stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 This is a friendly suggestion. Read more and post less. This system is not going to close off and I've never heard of a quadruple phaser. Even two pieces phasing can cause quite the storm. Me thinks you might be trolling which will buy you a suspension during the first storm we have had to track in three years. Good idea, I'll take your suggestion. Didn't seem too friendly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 By the way guys. 20% off discount for americanwx models for rest of the month if you want to give it a go. Use coupon code STORM20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 wow, its nice to come to the board after a couple of hours away and see a thread that has exploded about a potential storm lol. ahhh seems like old times. what is interesting is that there does appear to be plenty of support for some kind of storm next week, and it could be a biggie for some. the details are still too uncertain its just nice to have something to track. as others have said, what will be really interesting is once all the players are within range for sampling and getting a good handle on how strong, location etc. then the models will hopefully hone in on a similar solution. as in real estate, location location location. the temps are probably not an issue for once (never say never in the se) its just where and when. a 50-100 mile shift will take a lot of out, or add a lot of us in. once the sampling gets better hopefully it looks better and better for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 A note on the southern s/w that I'm keeping a close eye on: It originates from energy tailing out of the Aleutian trough within the next 2 days. This feature won't be accurately modeled until it makes landfall by Sunday. The stronger it is, the more influence it will have on the northern wave pivoting down from Montana, allowing it to phase in with the southern wave. I think this wave is important because we don't have the room for the polar s/w to pull away from the PV given its proximity. Had the PV been much weaker, then the wave could very well do it on its own, ala Jan '96. 12z GFS @90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Thanks guys appreciate the support. That's all I was essentially using it for anyhow was to look to see how it sets up compared to the other models. I've actually only see it be on the money at 84 a couple times but that was mostly confluence events and cold air damming when I still lived in Connecticut so it's not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 A note on the southern s/w that I'm keeping a close eye on: It originates from energy tailing out of the Aleutian trough within the next 2 days. This feature won't be accurately modeled until it makes landfall by Sunday. The stronger it is, the more influence it will have on the northern wave pivoting down from Montana, allowing it to phase in with the southern wave. 12z GFS @90 Ha, that's my cue to check out of the thread until Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 wow, its nice to come to the board after a couple of hours away and see a thread that has exploded about a potential storm lol. ahhh seems like old times. It seems like it's been forever doesn't it? Well, I know it's way too early for this, but heck, we get into this debate every year, so maybe I can nip it early...so here goes....."At least if we do get some type of storm, we won't have to worry about ground temperatures this time!" There. I said it and feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 There is a shocking amount of model agreement and lack of variation ( at least major changes) run to run for the time frame we are in. In fact it is pretty rare to see this kind of agreement and consistency in this range. I doubt the models change that much between now and when they first start sampling the actual energy. That is the time when I would expect to see any major shifts in the model thinking on this system, if there is any. I actually think we are still at the time frame where things could change significantly. If you look through the GFS ensemble members for example, there are some that are off the coast and dry, some that are mainly a coastal hit, and some that are well inland and warmer....and there is notable variation in how the various shortwaves rotate through the eastern trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 It seems like it's been forever doesn't it? Well, I know it's way too early for this, but heck, we get into this debate every year, so maybe I can nip it early...so here goes....."At least if we do get some type of storm, we won't have to worry about ground temperatures this time!" There. I said it and feel better. Looks different than what I show: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_ga_soil.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I actually think we are still at the time frame where things could change significantly. If you look through the GFS ensemble members for example, there are some that are off the coast and dry, some that are mainly a coastal hit, and some that are well inland and warmer....and there is notable variation in how the various shortwaves rotate through the eastern trough. Look at the individual ensemble members and you'll see plenty of variation. This event is 5 days out... still much to discern here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just remember that the super clipper that hammered I-95 a few days ago really didn't look like anything much until a couple days before. I know this is a lot different, but we have a long ways to go and anything could potentially happen. EDIT: The ECMWF snowfall mean just came out on WeatherBell. Using 10:1 ratios, I went from 1.8" to 1.6" (and that's probably low since ratios will be higher)! Not much difference. Don't meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I actually think we are still at the time frame where things could change significantly. If you look through the GFS ensemble members for example, there are some that are off the coast and dry, some that are mainly a coastal hit, and some that are well inland and warmer....and there is notable variation in how the various shortwaves rotate through the eastern trough. I think we're still in that time frame until everything gets properly sampled. Still have a few days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 During a possible winter threat; we pick apart everything about a suite of weather models. Look, remember how the GFS has been missing on some key things this year and AFTER the fact we realize and talk about how it wasnt going to rain etc.. Well, same could and probably will happen again with so much GEFS spread currently. We just don't notice so many intricates on boring rainy days nearly as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Looks different than what I show: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_ga_soil.php It does look different.....the map I posted is dated Jan 24, 2014 from the Georgia Automated Enviromental Monitoring Network. One way or another this has to be some of the lowest soil temps we've had here in quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.