BillT Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 been watching the baja area water vapor loops for a couple of days now..slowly the flow of moisture is moving right now it looks like there is interaction between the southern flow and northern flow just north of the 4 corners area right now, not saying anything about any phasing just seeing the moisture flow north and hit the northern flow in that area....that southern flow has been slowly tilting towards the east and the leading edges have been being blown east since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yea, it’s hard not to get tingle’s from the NAM. Not only is the polar s/w going to capture that baja energy, but the gradient out ahead of these feature’s is not pressing down so hard, allowing for more amplification as they move east. Yeah, you're right. The height field ahead of the system lifts out a bit more so with the retreating PV, which is going allow this system more room to amplify as it digs down to the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Meanwhile, my promise to MetalBoy might be coming true according to radar. There doesn't seem to be much interest in the frozen precip that's happening in places that don't see a lot. I saw film of folks sledding last night just down the road.... Mobile, New Orleans way That's pretty cool, and the southern steam keeps running moisture under the cold. Sooner or later some will run up and over like it was doing even back in Ala and parts of Ga last night. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 What implications would these new features being shown on the NAM have down the road? Would it negative tilt faster allowing the low to hug the coast more and thus throw precip back further inland? I have to imagine with a relatively early phase, the precip. would be heavier and more widespread. If a full phase occurs, the system is able to dig far enough south, and the PV retreats quickly enough to allow the jet to loosen up, there may very well be a negatively tilted upper level trough which would pull the sfc low closer to the coast and end up with a major snow storm for most of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 have to admit that is exciting looking. Only if we can get some support for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I would that would be either a Sleet or Freezing rain (until around HR 84) *and yes its the NAM* for around us here in Mid GA. Nice cold air press for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 the biggest anomaly in the pattern next week will be the cross polar ridge. that allows s/w's to accelerate across the plains and dig anomalously. i wouldn't surprised at all to see a trend of the polar jet digging further south out west, allowing more amplification and negative tilting of the trough. it would lead to a slightly warmer/wetter solution, but i think it's a likely trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 WxSouth NAM model is in now...first of several important runs. The last two years this model picked up the Southwest systems much better than the Globals (GFS and Euro) when the Southern tier of states was concerned, so it's not as bad as some say. It also caught the Texas, LA, MS snowfall better than any other model last night and today, esp. MS, LA, AL areas. That said, it's no guarantee, and the 84 hour panel is the least trustworthy, but the trend is important.This run samples ...the Baja low better (mentioned that in my video before the runs tonight) and captures, absorbs it into the Rockies incoming trough. Basically, it backs the flow up quite a bit, which opens the Gulf into a widespread precip maker for the Southern states, as early as Monday Night and Tuesday morning. It lifts the Polar vortex in Canada up north just in time to allow backing southwest flow. We'll see if it's onto something, or just on something. #south #snow www.wxsouth.comSee More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I would that would be either a Sleet or Freezing rain (until around HR 84) *and yes its the NAM* for around us here in Mid GA. Nice cold air press for sure. Yep surface temps are at or below freezing almost to the gulf coast. Some of that might not be touching the ground but Talk about a huge area of winter precip. It's the 84 hour nam so it's worth about 3 cents but imagine the peeing of pants if everyone saw that coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 the biggest anomaly in the pattern next week will be the cross polar ridge. that allows s/w's to accelerate across the plains and dig anomalously. i wouldn't surprised at all to see a trend of the polar jet digging further south out west, allowing more amplification and negative tilting of the trough. it would lead to a slightly warmer/wetter solution, but i think it's a likely trend. Agree. The NAM is a case in point with the height field lifting more as the polar jet carves in further west with a southwest flow backing in. Not too warm, but not too cold either. An ideal example of this is the Jan 96 storm... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1996/us0106.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z - The ensembles of the CMC are west of the original run. 18z - The ensembles of the GFS and original run agree. 12z - The ensembles of the ECMWF and the original run are relatively the same. All with the exception of the CMC ensembles are far offshore. Taking the models as face value, i would not get excited if i do not live on the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 WxSouth NAM model is in now...first of several important runs. The last two years this model picked up the Southwest systems much better than the Globals (GFS and Euro) when the Southern tier of states was concerned, so it's not as bad as some say. It also caught the Texas, LA, MS snowfall better than any other model last night and today, esp. MS, LA, AL areas. That said, it's no guarantee, and the 84 hour panel is the least trustworthy, but the trend is important.This run samples ...the Baja low better (mentioned that in my video before the runs tonight) and captures, absorbs it into the Rockies incoming trough. Basically, it backs the flow up quite a bit, which opens the Gulf into a widespread precip maker for the Southern states, as early as Monday Night and Tuesday morning. It lifts the Polar vortex in Canada up north just in time to allow backing southwest flow. We'll see if it's onto something, or just on something. #south #snow www.wxsouth.comSee More I read that too. Normally more moisture would be good except when it bring in southwest flow.Or am I missing something ?That cold polar vortex is going to be hard to move out right. I'm still trying to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 kinda what could happen as i see it. you have to click on the image to see the writing to the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Agree. The NAM is a case in point with the height field lifting more as the polar jet carves in further west with a southwest flow backing in. Not too warm, but not too cold either. An ideal example of this is the Jan 96 storm... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1996/us0106.php interesting times for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I read that too. Normally more moisture would be good except when it bring in southwest flow.Or am I missing something ?That cold polar vortex is going to be hard to move out right. I'm still trying to learn. Need a sw flow to open up the gulf. Plenty of cold air in place... certainly not lacking this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yep surface temps are at or below freezing almost to the gulf coast. Some of that might not be touching the ground but Talk about a huge area of winter precip. It's the 84 hour nam so it's worth about 3 cents but imagine the peeing of pants if everyone saw that coming. Ya, most of that is prolly not reaching the ground, but even freezing drizzle would NOT be good for as cold as it has been lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Ya, most of that is prolly not reaching the ground, but even freezing drizzle would NOT be good for as cold as it has been lately. Looks like it would be reaching the ground along the gulf coast for the most part based on 925mb to 850mb rh but for a very large area it's not. Regardless, quite a large area long the gulf coast/southeast would end up being creamed one way or the other though if that particular solution was right. It's fun to speculate on this but one has to keep in mind it's the long range nam. But at least one can see the potential as hky noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z - The ensembles of the CMC are west of the original run. 18z - The ensembles of the GFS and original run agree. 12z - The ensembles of the ECMWF and the original run are relatively the same. All with the exception of the CMC ensembles are far offshore. Taking the models as face value, i would not get excited if i do not live on the coastal plain. Fluid dynamics, absent of UL forcing to steer a slp inland or along the coast, slp's tend to travel the path of least resistance which is the natural baroclinic zone, aka, the Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Folks do not post meaningless crap like "the oz run has started". And if you repost something that's been deleted once or twice already, you are asking for it. Keep it on topic, civil, relevant, and please..use a little common sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Our baja low has a closed contour by 48 hrs. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Out to 48 trough is further west than the 18z. Energy up north looks about the same as the 18z. Not much southern stream energy yet. Let's see where she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 10PM WPC sfc maps for Tues-Wed show low offshore with inverted trough back through the Savannah River Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Our baja low has a closed contour by 48 hrs. Impressive. Looks like it might be moving east at hour 60 but hard to tell. It might just be doing it's slow wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 10PM WPC sfc maps for Tues-Wed show low offshore with inverted trough back through the Savannah River Valley This is dangerously close to a classic KCAE snow track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Our baja low has a closed contour by 48 hrs. Impressive. 18z run had that too at 54 hours and looked how it turned out.fwiw the nam does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Still holding the southern s/w out Looks like it might be moving east at hour 60 but hard to tell. It might just be doing it's slow wobble. Ehh.. I think it may still be holding it back again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yea not liking the evolution of the run so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 That low out west just wobbling southward is going to be the bane of our existence on these runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 GFS craps out again not know what to do with the s/w once it comes onshore so it just parks it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The GFS is trending a bit in the direction of the NAM, but no phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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