BullCityWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Just for a little fun, let's assume 20:1 ratios are possible with this storm given the depth of the cold...I'd be more than happy with .50-.75 qpf the DGEX is selling for central NC. That's my thinking. A little QPF is going to go a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I will always remember the Dgex as The Henry M> from accuweather model. Him putting those Big Daddy tee shirts and clinging on that model. Just read where it showed a HECS Feb snow in the MA a few years ago before any of the other models. Anyway tonight the following is crucial to me in seeing if we can pick up on any trends, then see how they evolve throughout the Sat/Sun model cycle. 1) Euro ensembles (most dependable/consistent IMO at identifying pattern/potential Day 3-7). 2-a) Euro op to see how it jives with it's ensembles. The euro op & nam agreeing with each other inside 84 (E/E rule) are hard to bet against. Euro has tendency to overplay 2m temps as colder and underplay qpf. Also has bad habit of holding energy out in the 4 corners to long. But imo it's still the king in winter for mby. 2-) UKMET (Has a great reputation of sniffing out N/S stream phased storm), Learned this tidbit from a graphic WeatherNC posted back on eastern several years ago. 3-a) Crazy uncle & JMA just to see if they give voice of confidence to euro op/ens and ukmet. 3-) Last the GFS. I have such a hard time trusting this thing in the mid range. It's like it goes through this 24-36 hour cycle around day 4-5 of throwing every solution known to man against the wall to see if it sticks. In fairness it runs 4x's a day and opens itself up to swinging and missing. But it does become important to get on board around day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 That's my thinking. A little QPF is going to go a long way. I think the rates even down here in KCAE would be pretty good (better than 10:1)... but the maps have been varying with surface temps and how cold 850 turns out before the precip blows out. If it even storms here of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I think it is great to have the Euro ensembles and the other models on our side. I just wish the Euro op would come more west, and the GFS would follow, even if the Euro ensembles are reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 That's my thinking. A little QPF is going to go a long way. Quote of the night. If you are west of 95 in NC and can get .16-.20 with ratios you'll get a warning criteria snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Robert has a video update on his site, He just posted for subscribers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Quote of the night. If you are west of 95 in NC and can get .16-.20 with ratios you'll get a warning criteria snow. Don't forget to allow .15 or more to saturate the column. Agree as of now the trend is not for an inland event. It would be nice to see a solid swath of snow pack across the state. Hopefully at least the coast and. Coastal plain scores with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 It is the nam but the 0z is significantly different at hour 63. Much stronger northern and southern stream waves that seem like they may line up for phasing down the road. Not sure how it'll end up by the end of the run but positive trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Robert has a video update on his site, He just posted for subscribers! Interestingly enough he talks about the energy out in the baja and how other models weren't seeing it. The 00z NAM does have that energy there and it shots it east as a weak wave. This then gets on a repeat pattern and by 66 stronger energy is moving in tandem with our northern energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 It is the nam but the 0z is significantly different at hour 63. Much stronger northern and southern stream waves that seem like they may line up for phasing down the road. Not sure how it'll end up by the end of the run but positive trends. Was def. thinking the same thing looking at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 It is the nam but the 0z is significantly different at hour 63. Much stronger northern and southern stream waves that seem like they may line up for phasing down the road. Not sure how it'll end up by the end of the run but positive trends. I'm constantly going back and fourth between the two runs for the same hours; I'm thinking by 84; something should show.. .. Southern definitely looks better.. I notice the PV piece or whatever is slightly North and the timing is a tad bit faster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Don't forget to allow .15 or more to saturate the column. Agree as of now the trend is not for an inland event. It would be nice to see a solid swath of snow pack across the state. Hopefully at least the coast and. Coastal plain scores with this one. There's been a lot of talk about trends today. If the conversation is not specific, then the idea is like trying to nail jello to the wall. You could say that the Op Euro trended east from yesterday's 12z and you'd be correct. On the other hand, you could say that we have more models showing precip farther inland today than yesterday and you'd also be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 It is the nam but the 0z is significantly different at hour 63. Much stronger northern and southern stream waves that seem like they may line up for phasing down the road. Not sure how it'll end up by the end of the run but positive trends. Yeah, watching that southern wave closely. A phased solution would wake everyone up all up and down the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I might be wishful thinking; but didn't the Euro show something like this energy in the SW on the 12z run that was a big one? I remember seeing the higher res Euro and wondering why the energy was looking broken up and then boom; and this broken up energy look seems to be on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Out to 75 it's running in tandem with that northern energy. Hard not to get excited at that look. Painful part will be @84 it's going to be close enough to a phase to really tease us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 This was actually a great 00z NAM run. Precip all over Texas and 2m are cold. Ended before we could possibly see a hookup though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like it would phase around hour 96 or so. That northern energy was digging and the southern energy was really blossoming some moisture across central TX. Daddy like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Out to 75 it's running in tandem with that northern energy. Hard not to get excited at that look. Painful part will be @84 it's going to be close enough to a phase to really tease us. 12z that southern energy was non-existent... 18z is was barely registering.. 0z it's almost as strong as the leading polar vorticity. Quite a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z that southern energy was non-existent... 18z is was barely registering.. 0z it's almost as strong as the leading polar vorticity. Quite a trend. You willing to throw $5 down on the GFS? Hate to trust the NAM that far out but....it does look like a killer solution and a sure plausible one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Granted it's the NAM, but this is a beautiful sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Don't forget to allow .15 or more to saturate the column. Agree as of now the trend is not for an inland event. It would be nice to see a solid swath of snow pack across the state. Hopefully at least the coast and. Coastal plain scores with this one. I'm pretty sure the models take into account saturating the column, so there's no need to subtract for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yea, it’s hard not to get tingle’s from the NAM. Not only is the polar s/w going to capture that baja energy, but the gradient out ahead of these feature’s is not pressing down so hard, allowing for more amplification as they move east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 You willing to throw $5 down on the GFS? Hate to trust the NAM that far out but....it does look like a killer solution and a sure plausible one. I'd bet the 18z was a bad run and it'll return to the previous runs with a stronger southern s/w.. and not cutting it off over the SW for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 What implications would these new features being shown on the NAM have down the road? Would it negative tilt faster allowing the low to hug the coast more and thus throw precip back further inland? I have to imagine with a relatively early phase, the precip. would be heavier and more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I think there may be a small amount of ZR happening at hr 84 in Southern parts of GA per 00z NAM taking a look at 2m. I'll try to get a souding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Everyone take a deep breath. It's the NAM at 84. I want to see a lot more than this before getting too interested, at least for GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 This is an area close to the AL/GA border at the South part.. a bit dry but still not the worst look for Winter weather being a real possibility if the NAMS potential pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Like you guys said it is the nam however that 5h setup Wow put out is spectacular and a sure beauty. Idk why everyone keeps discounting the nam I know it's verification scores aren't great however there have been multiple models now that have really been amping this thing up including both GFS and Euro ensembles. The moisture breaking out in central TX would surely be a good sign to translate up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 We now have the following: Good Guys: GGEM, NOGAPS, DGEX, JMA, UKMET (possibly), Euro EPS. Bad Guys: GEFS, OP Euro, OP GFS At least for precip further inland. It is getting that time to worry a bit if 00z models aren't any better for the OP of both the Euro & GFS. Lol, and it's those "bad" guys that most need to be "good" guys in the end, or it's just pipe dreams Speaking of pipe dreams, I'm thinking the end result is going to be a 73 type bowling ball with 100 mile swath from Montgomery thru me to Cola, lol. 20 inches of good times. Watch and see....it's Tony's storm, lol, except it's too cold for sleet with a bowling ball..... So it'll have to be Lookout's and Shawn/Michelle's storm, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Everyone take a deep breath. It's the NAM at 84. I want to see a lot more than this before getting too interested, at least for GA. But @84 it's worked out for us so much. Seriously though if I had a dollar for everytime the NAM did something crazy only for the GFS to look nothing like it...well I would be a good bit richer today. I do like though that it has those impulses of southern energy shooting off east under 48. What happens after that in reality is anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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