beanskip Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Hmmmm -- maybe just a slowdown though because precip still going strong at 120 hours (all the way until 0z Thursday) with eastern 40 percent of N.C. cashing in. Man, total precip for eastern half of S.C. must be prodigious on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The GGEM is not terribly different from the previous run. It's still a major snow storm for eastern 1/2- 2/3 of NC and eastern third of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 If I had to guess, CMC probably increased QPF area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The GGEM looks pretty good. From the black and white maps, I'd say it's a decent hit from GSO and CLT eastwards and a really big hit in the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yep surface temps are at or below freezing almost to the gulf coast. Some of that might not be touching the ground but Talk about a huge area of winter precip. It's the 84 hour nam so it's worth about 3 cents but imagine the peeing of pants if everyone saw that coming. this maybe a rare occasion where it is actually cold enough that for a lot of us if its stronger (hence pulls in some warmer air) it can still be cold enough for a decent winter storm, unlike the last couple of years of 33 and rain 10PM WPC sfc maps for Tues-Wed show low offshore with inverted trough back through the Savannah River Valley glad you posted that, thanks. i was trying to figure out that little odd looking area of moisture over ne ga, upstate and sw nc and that is probably where its coming from as a side note and speaking generally, if things "behave" and end up like so many of the rain storms, cold rain storms, soaking rains etc. have for over the past what year or year and a half i find it hard to believe that someone in the se wont get some winter weather, irregardless of what the models are showing now. i know that isnt really scientific but just seeing how so many of these storms lately have evolved (even some going from a dry weekend to soaker at midweek) its certainly well within the realm of possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 CMC did tick SE a hair. Can't tell about the UK yet, your 24hr maps are to coarse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Hard to tell on B/w, but there would be parts of S.C. pushing 2 inches of liquid, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 yep and then came back to a better solution within 2-3 days of the event. i remember it distinctly. The GFS has a serious cold/suppression bias overall, its bias is completely magnified in these types of patterns, as a result it tends to totally squash systems and its notorious as you and many others may know at having systems Day 6-8 and then suddenly losing them Day 4-5 only to bring them back inside 96 or 84 hours...my guess is the GGEM/Euro are going to be alot closer to getting this right in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 VERY true Mike....I sooo remember that. I have a feeling the GFS will be wrong. Burger, I really wish the GFS would just run 2 times a day and worry about, not 4 times Yea 4 runs really are pointless. Good thing the CMC is still bullish. Gotta love those Canadians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 CMC did tick SE a hair. Can't tell about the UK yet, your 24hr maps are to coarse. It's interesting because the precip appears to be even more copious further west this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 If I had to guess, CMC probably increased QPF area wide. Looks like next to nothing on a line north and west of GSO/CLT/GSP/ATL/BHM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like next to nothing on a line north and west of GSO/CLT/GSP/ATL/BHM Even you only are able to squeeze out .05 in that area, the ratios would be insane. Talking at least 1-2 inches with .05 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 VERY true Mike....I sooo remember that. I have a feeling the GFS will be wrong. Burger, I really wish the GFS would just run 2 times a day and worry about, not 4 times I would be completely fine with the GFS only running 0z and 12z cycles too, and eliminate the damn truncation altogether. I think this would at least tend to see a lot less drastic changes and run to run continuity issues in the "off-timed" runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like next to nothing on a line north and west of GSO/CLT/GSP/ATL/BHM I don't know about nothing. The 1+ mm area stretches all the way to the mountains in two frames, so you're looking at at least 2 mm of liquid, which is close to 0.1" QPF, even at the outer fringes. That could be potentially be 1.5-2" of snow with high ratios and cold temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 On SV maps CMC is only out to 75 but you can really see that energy digging in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Similar result in terms of precip, but boy CMC sure got there in a different way -- 0z run hold off precip about 12 hours behind 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 It's interesting because the precip appears to be even more copious further west this run. I wonder if it's because it's slower and can lay more precip down, gotta wait until some good maps to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like next to nothing on a line north and west of GSO/CLT/GSP/ATL/BHM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Similar result in terms of precip, but boy CMC sure got there in a different way -- 0z run hold off precip about 12 hours behind 12z run. Yeah it's certainly different. The gradient in totals will be hard to pin down. Much more precip falls to the south but there is much colder air and higher ratios to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Call me crazy but I do not believe the GFS depiction for a minute just parking that s/w in baja the way it does. I'm not saying this just because I want or hope for something but if I remember correctly and please someone correct me if I'm wrong the GFS has struggled in the past with these southwest shortwaves. I think wx south had a post just recently here within the last hour about this. Does anyone have more info pertaining to GFS and shortwave struggles? It's been stacking short waves and moving them out slow for Sun/Mon, for several days past...so it's shown it wants to do this. It's just too far out to make sense of things. The waves are in the Pac. cold air moving down in bursts. Just give it until Sun to see what happens. I'm still watching the late weekend/early week, as I don't think things are worked out for then yet, much less mid week T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Can't tell about the UK yet, your 24hr maps are to coarse. Yeah, it's hard to tell on the UKMet, but it didn't appear to back the flow along the east coast very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The GFS has a serious cold/suppression bias overall, its bias is completely magnified in these types of patterns, as a result it tends to totally squash systems and its notorious as you and many others may know at having systems Day 6-8 and then suddenly losing them Day 4-5 only to bring them back inside 96 or 84 hours...my guess is the GGEM/Euro are going to be alot closer to getting this right in the end. Thanks SnowGoose69! Hopefully that's the case this time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 CMC actually looks pretty close to the NAM at 5h out to 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Not nothing, next to nothing. Not a big fan of banking on .1 of precip 4 days out. I don't know about nothing. The 1+ mm area stretches all the way to the mountains in two frames, so you're looking at at least 2 mm of liquid, which is close to 0.1" QPF, even at the outer fringes. That could be potentially be 1.5-2" of snow with high ratios and cold temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Have to say, this at least has my interest way down here in my new home -- I know it's a long shot, but if the CMC is close to right, wouldn't surprise me if somewhere on the Gulf Coast (probably west of me) saw some accumulations. In the absence of that, rooting hard for my old peeps in the Carolinas/Ga. Yeah it's certainly different. The gradient in totals will be hard to pin down. Much more precip falls to the south but there is much colder air and higher ratios to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 ***** storm of the century really for the coastal plain/just inland if this verified. Depending on exact soundings it's either a monster snow storm or a monster ice storm along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Good gracious, CMC STILL has it snowing at 132 in SE third of S.C./N.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 CMC doesn't do much with the southern energy. Digs just enough to get some good lift into the SE @108 much of the eastern halves of NC and SC already have .25 with most of NC/SC/GA in .10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 CMC actually looks pretty close to the NAM at 5h out to 81. The funny thing is it doesn't send the energy in Baja east but parts of the energy looks to phase w/ the energy in the northern stream. EDIT: Take that back...It looks to phase the 2 pieces of energy around hr 114 on the 5h map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I think the GFS running at just 12 and 00z would actually be a great idea. Less money going to run it on the computers might lead to more improvements on the technology itself! Anyway; off topic I apologize but maybe we do need a main forum thread and attention to the possibiliy; although NOAA has already thought about it I'm sure. The GGEM.. if this map is correct puts down 0.39 inches for KCAE's area. IF I'm seeing it right.. that's a bit below the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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