burrel2 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 9z SREF mean has trended much wetter/ further west with the precip. It now has significant snows all the way to birmingham, AL and Rome, GA. Maybe this is a sign of things to come for 12z models? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p06.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p06&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 It's so hard to argue against the GFS and EURO but I am holding on to some hope that we here in Charleston see some snow with this system. I agree things will become much clearer in the next 48 hrs. No cliff diving yet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Check out @wxbrad's Tweet: https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/427069453999030272 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 This alert was generated by the National Weather ServiceEMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network)from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server.NOUS42 KWNO 251337ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD1336Z SAT JAN 25 2014THE 12Z NAM HAS STARTED ON-TIME...THERE WERE 14 ALASKAN...30CANADIAN...71 CONUS...6 MEXICAN AND 9 CANADIAN RAOB REPORTS AVBLFOR INGEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 1h Brutal cold, snow centered over the midwest this week #crisisofcold pic.twitter.com/Va0t7MXzwV I guess JB not on board with a SE snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Check out @wxbrad's Tweet: https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/427069453999030272Awesome. Greatest chances are down here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 9z SREF mean has trended much wetter/ further west with the precip. It now has significant snows all the way to birmingham, AL and Rome, GA. Maybe this is a sign of things to come for 12z models? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p06.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p06&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Was just about to post about that. Very good sign. Does 12z NAM follow suit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Will be curious to see where the WPC puts their trust in the models in their disco this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Here are the picture and discussion from WxSouth's Facebook page concerning the energy that the NAM has seen that the globals have missed: This may not be sampled properly in the data. I don't think any model had much of it in the 12z runs just looking at the initialized 5H panels. Notice the systems west of Baja, California. This is what the NAM is taking east and trying to pick it up with the wave diving into the Rockies Tuesday. Models notoriously mishandle those systems way out west until we get closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Will be curious to see where the WPC puts their trust in the models in their disco this morning. Somehow, I can't imagine their discussion lending any weight to the JMA or 84 hour NAM. That would be awesome to read, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 This alert was generated by the National Weather Service EMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network) from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server. NOUS42 KWNO 251337 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1336Z SAT JAN 25 2014 THE 12Z NAM HAS STARTED ON-TIME...THERE WERE 14 ALASKAN...30 CANADIAN...71 CONUS...6 MEXICAN AND 9 CANADIAN RAOB REPORTS AVBL FOR INGEST. Dacula this I like! Thanks for always being on the ball! Hopefully this will be able to give the nam some validity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 06z NAM had sleet for the midlands of SC per 84hr. I'm assuming this is before this turn over to snow from what's coming? SREF is also showing many members of ice/sleet for this area at hr 87; also assuming thats just the beginning. GFS generally misses us; but it just may be getting there. 00z Euro EPS still had 30 members of snow for CAE. 2 inch mean. my meltdown mode is over. thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 KILM, is playing Dr. NO again this morning, going/based on the overnight, GFS Runs, opting with the driest solution, as well as the EURO, keeping any pcp either right on, or just off-shore the Coast... .... >snip< Synopsis...Arctic high pressure will move off the coast early thismorning...and along with it the last night of the most recent nastyArctic chill. A brief warmup will develop Sunday into Monday.Another Arctic cold front will arrive late Monday...stallingoffshore Tuesday night. Low pressure may develop along the frontWednesday bringing a chance for wintry precipitation for theeastern Carolinas...but mainly off the coast.>snip<******************************************************* >snip<Shortwave rotates around deep broad middleto upper trough over the east on Wednesday but looks to be too dryto produce any pcp. Have kept small mention over coastal waters inthe way of snow showers but latest GFS model run keep a very dry airmass in place and therefore likelihood of pcp remains slim. European model (ecmwf)shows slightly greater chance for some pcp right along the coast onTuesday and column will support snow if this occurs but for now willtrend toward a drier forecast leaving all pcp off the coast Tuesday orWednesday.>snip< Even though the Model(s) are now supporting Phasing, interacting w/the Southern stream.. currently: Temperature 22 °F Dew Point 13 °F Calm wind(s) While way, WAY South of the SE Crew Has this, Folks,,, Mobile,BAMA,,,, (Destin.Fl)... On Monday evening...... >snip<Monday night through Tuesday night isan interesting period...weather wise...with a front moving southacross at least the land portion of the forecast area Monday. The global modelspush the front farther south Monday. Another lobe of energy swingssouth across the plains Monday into Tuesday...slowing the push of thecold air behind the front. Isentropic upglide brings rain and farthernorth of the front...a mixed bag of winter precipitation to the area. Atthis point...feel the initial precipitation will move south of the coastMonday night...then as the second vorticity lobe swings south across theplains...upglide precipitation spreads north over mainly coastal countiesof the forecast area. Looking at model soundings...with the front well south ofthe coast...the depth of the airmass in the boundary layer is prettymuch below freezing...so snow is indicated Tuesdaymorning....becoming rain during the day. As the vorticity lobe swingssouth Tuesday into Tuesday night...the precipitation moves south. Thebiggest questions lies in how far south the surface front gets pushedMonday/Monday night. The further north the front lies...the farthernorth the wintry precipitation lies...with more of a mixed bag across landportions of the forecast area (more in line with the nam). Have leaned towardsthe European model (ecmwf) and GFS in pushing the front farther south and going withsnow...then rain Tuesday. Too soon to even speculate onamounts...though. Will definitely need to keep an eye on this. Fortemperatures...a hard freeze warning may be needed Monday and Tuesdaynights...especially over the northern two thirds of the forecast area.>snip< Summing this up, along with "other" Local AFD(s), I'm thinking NO-ONE is sure WHAT is going to happen, (or Not), are either going conservative w/major suppression, Climo, or just plain Model hugging.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Not too far out but the difference I see so far is that it's trying to form a low off the Baja of CA in about 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 NWS Jacksonville MODELS SHOW INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. MODEL MOISTURE STILL DIFFERS WITH ECMWF SHOWING MOISTURE LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE GFS SHOWS DRYING AS COLD AIR MOVES IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE MIX OF LIGHT RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW FLURRIES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Cheap plug guy, sorry, but I have a quick and easy way to get all the AFD's for every Southern Region office, as well as forecast, meteograms, HWO's, right here: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_southern_region_weather.php Have links there for the Central, Western, and Alaskan Regions. Working on the Eastern Region, they don't use the "media style" graphics like the other office do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Cheap plug guy, sorry, but I have a quick and easy way to get all the AFD's for every Southern Region office, as well as forecast, meteograms, HWO's, right here: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_southern_region_weather.php Have links there for the Central, Western, and Alaskan Regions. Working on the Eastern Region, they don't use the "media style" graphics like the other office do. Someone needs to tell FFC and El Paso that just because those fonts are there, it doesn't mean you have to use them. Also, I'm thinking that Key West in the winter is maybe the cushiest forecasting job in NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 One difference already on the 12z NAM is that it has two consolidated pieces of energy off the southern coast of California @36. 6z had one elongated wave. I have no clue what if any implications that will have. The 6z rotated it down into the Bajah and then ejected it. What might happen is if these rotate down one could possibly be used as kicker...or they could phase and just sit there and spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The SREF was the first model to sniff out the event last week. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 There are 2 members which deliver significant snowfall to the area. The rest are dry for most everyone. The mean must have been wrong then, odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Our man Burrel2 is the SREF man. I assume he will be all over it for us. But yes, you are correct sir. The SREF was the first model to sniff out the event last week. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Alright folks.....this is your one warning from me...keep your whining, smart azz comments, cliff diving and any other off topic discussion in the banter thread. Warnings/Timeouts/Suspensions will be handed out and you will be on the outside looking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 A few things I like about the NAM out to 45. PV is weaker. Northern energy as well is weaker. Looks like those two pieces of energy are about to phase and move east. Does it actually move east though or just sit there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 One difference already on the 12z NAM is that it has two consolidated pieces of energy off the southern coast of California @36. 6z had one elongated wave. I have no clue what if any implications that will have. The 6z rotated it down into the Bajah and then ejected it. What might happen is if these rotate down one could possibly be used as kicker...or they could phase and just sit there and spin. From my maps (still early on my side) I could see the energy being skipped over.. but time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like the NAM is going to pick up the energy over Baja and bring it east southeast into the southwest states and northern Mexico through 36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The SREF was the first model to sniff out the event last week. We'll see. 9z looks even better than the 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Out to 48 energy is south of 6z in the Baja. Where it goes from here is anybodies guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 9z looks even better than the 6 Hard to look at hour 51 of the 12z and not get excited looks like three pieces of energy are about to phase over the baja and it's trucking east. If that happens look out! No phase or northern energy probably needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Moisture breaking out in LA @54. Energy is still in the baja and is starting to phase. Not as consolidated as the 6z was. Can it phase get juicer and move east? That's the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Shawn and Burger that area near the Dakotas on the 48 hr image more consolidated and further south in this run can that help down the road here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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